Walt Disney and Lucasfilm
Apparently tired of letting 20th Century Fox cause all of the release date musical chairs chaos, Walt Disney rearranged the entire summer schedule (and royally screwed up my predictions for the biggest grossers of each month) by shifting the global release, now including North America, of Avengers: Infinity War to April 27 instead of May 4. We’ve already seen Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty move to April 20. I am expecting Dwayne Johnson’s Rampage, currently set by Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc. for April 20, to move somewhere farther away from Infinity War. But shifting the summer kick-off giant to late April also turns the month of May into a mano-a-mano competition between Deadpool 2 (May 18) and Solo: A Star Wars Story (May 25).
This all started when Fox moved their untitled Deadpool sequel (which I’m hoping actually ends up being titled Untitled Deadpool Sequel) from June 3 to May 18. At the time, it was considered a potential “blood in the water” move against the troubled Star Wars Story. In retrospect, it may be an interesting battle between two big flicks that have some surface-level similarities. Both are spin-offs featuring fan-favorite characters from a huge and expansive fantasy universe. Both feature lovable rogues who, to varying degrees, are more anti-heroes than conventional heroes. And both are, to varying degrees, having to balance selling themselves as something different from the norm and something comforting to fans of their respective genre or franchise.
That’s not to say Solo and Deadpool 2 are the same movies. In terms of giving to spin-off to a guy who was a lead anyway, Solo is closer to the X-Men Origins: Wolverine than to Deadpool. At least part of the decision to replace Phil Lord and Chris Miller with Ron Howard was apparently rooted in the desire to have a movie that was a more straight-faced fantasy adventure (an action movie with comedy, as opposed to a comedy with action). Deadpool 2 will play around with genre tropes and break the fourth wall on a semi-regular basis. The Star Wars Story is an all-ages PG-13 adventure while Deadpool 2 is an R-rated action comedy aimed at older kids and adults.
If these big date changes had been in place on New Year’s Day when I did my annual “biggest grossers of each month” post, the predictions would have looked very different. For one thing, The Nun would be the clear frontrunner in September, all due respect to Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish’s Night School. If I were forced to predict which big May release would be the top grosser, what exactly would my pick have been? That’s a tough one. Before we even try to guestimate this, we should note that Deadpool 2 is a lot cheaper than Solo, meaning the former can gross a lot less than the latter, especially if it’s well-received, and still be considered an equivalent success.
Solo is (presumably) a family-friendly action comedy while Deadpool 2 is an adults-only action comedy. The Ryan Reynolds sequel is riding on the goodwill of a previous $783 million-grossing installment and the Han Solo prequel will have to overcome distrust due to the behind-the-scenes melodrama and the arguable cynicism of the core concept. Solo will be the consensus pick for large groups of age-varying moviegoers, but Deadpool 2 will have the benefit of the doubt. Quality matters, especially if Solo works better than anticipated or Deadpool 2 plays like a warmed-over comedy sequel. I’m curious when Disney will drop the embargo for Solo (presuming it doesn’t screen at CinemaCon), as they have thus far held Star Wars movies close to the vest.
Alien: Covenant notwithstanding, the weekend before Memorial Day weekend is one of the best slots to open a big movie, as seen by four Shrek movies, three Star Wars prequels and the likes of The Matrix Reloaded, Mad Max: Fury Road and Star Trek Into Darkness. Memorial Day weekend may look good on paper, it’s a terribly frontloaded frame, although Universal's Fast and Furious 6 and Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales did earn nearly $800 million worldwide in the slot in the last few years. We could be in a situation where both Solo and Deadpool 2 earn around $700m worldwide, but the former ends up on the defensive while the latter is heralded as an unmitigated success.
However fair that might be (reshoot-related budgets aside, anything over $600 million is a solid single for Solo, especially if it’s good), we should also note that Solo is just one of Disney’s very big 2018 releases alongside Incredibles 2, Wreck-It Ralph 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War while Deadpool 2 is Fox’s biggest shot in 2018 unless Alita: Battle Angel goes bonkers over Christmas. Neither of them will get much of a boost from China (Deadpool may not play there and Star Wars isn’t a thing in China). If backed into a corner, I’d crown Solo because betting against Star Wars is about as smart as betting against Marvel, but this could go either way.
Avengers: Infinity War shifting to late April leaves more money on the table for both Deadpool 2 and Solo, which may be part of the point (especially if Disney does end up buying Fox). So now it’s just a matter of seeing what else transpires (like Rampage theoretically moving to April 13 against Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare) and which of the two big May single character spin-off action comedies will fare best here and abroad. Or maybe this is a “whoever wins, we win” situation for fans and genre nerds. But it should be fun to watch, especially if both movies are fun to watch. What say you? Will can the Merc with the Mouth win the month or will Star Wars reign supreme yet again?
With the recent news that Avengers: Infinity War will be released one week earlier, as well as a look at the various lines of action figures — Marvel’s latest poster for the film focuses on the heinous Thanos and his children, the Black Order. Helping him track down the infinity stones, they will most likely go head-to-head with the various MCU heroes, who are left scattered around the globe after the events of Captain America: Civil War.
Corvus Glaive Voiced by seasoned voice-actor Mark Hammill, Corvus Glaive is the immortal general of Thanos’ armies, he wields a pike that can penetrate through any surface or object.
Proxima Midnight Voiced by Whoopi Goldberg, Proxima Midnight is the wife of Corvus, she carries a spear-like weapon that Thanos forged from a star.
Ebony Maw Voiced by Bill Nighy, Ebony Maw has a genius-level intellect and persuasive, mind-manipulating abilities.
Cull Obsidian A horn-toothed, hulk-sized brute voiced by none other than Vin Diesel.
Stay tuned for more Avengers: Infinity War promos leading up to the films global release on April 25 and dont forget to stay up-to-date with the latest Marvel news.
There's no one in the world who doubts that Marvel Studios' Avengers: Infinity War is going to slay at the box office; after all, this culmination of ten years of Marvel Cinematic Universe films may be the biggest movie milestone of our generation. No, the question isn't if Avengers 3 is going to make a lot of money, it's how much money will Marvel rake in?
After the unbelievable runaway success of Black Panther already this year, it seems that even Marvel Studios can still be surprised by just how well its films do. So, whatever estimates or assumptions may have once existed for Infinity War's earnings, those lines may have had to be entirely redrawn for a post-Black Panther reality.
Here's how much Avengers: Infinity War is projected to make on opening weekend - as reported by Box Office Pro:
Domestic Opening Weekend: $200 million – $235 million
Domestic Total Gross: $490 million – $590 million
While the report won't go into worldwide projections yet, there is mention of early estimates putting Avengers: Infinity War in the ring for a possible upset of the opening weekend record currently held by The Fate of the Furious ($443.2M overseas; $541.9M worldwide). Again, that's not all that surprising considering that FotF was a pivotal installment in one of the world's top movie franchises (the first since Paul Walker's death), while Infinity War is a bonafide cinematic milestone and event, which pulls viewer interest from across 10 years of previous films.
The real question in all this is will Disney be able to outdo Disney. Right now, the record for domestic opening weekend is still held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($248M), followed immediately by Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220M). It's mentioned that Jurassic World's $208.8M domestic opening may be an easier hurdle to get over.
Avengers: Infinity War will bring together the last ten years of MCU storylines, as the Mad Titan Thanos tries to gather the six Infinity Stones spread across the universe, to form the godly Infinity Gauntlet, with which he can remake the universe. We've recently gotten spoiler hints about major deaths in the film, and Marvel just yesterday announced that Infinity War will be released a week earlier, so that Marvel can debut the film simultaneously for fans all over the globe.
Black Panther is now in theaters. It will be followed by Avengers: Infinity War on April 27th, Ant-Man and the Wasp on July 6th, Captain Marvel on March 8, 2019, the fourth Avengers movie on May 3, 2019, the sequel to Spider-Man: Homecoming on July 5, 2019, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in 2020.
