Nobody:
Me and the boys deploying in Iran to fight in World War 3: pic.twitter.com/aigJCUK4C4 — ☘️ℤ𝕒𝕔𝕙☘️ (@RZekek) January 3, 2020
Kata Twitter Soal Manipulasi Trending Twitter
- World War 3 tiba-tiba menempati posisi 3 trending topic di Twitter wilayah Indonesia dan WWIII ada di posisi kesembilan. Untuk wilayah dunia, Iran dan World War 3 menempati ranking pertama dan kedua. Ada apa gerangan?Rupanya, melesatnya topik dengan jutaan tweet sudah diposting itu adalah imbas pembunuhan Komandan Garda Revolusi Iran, Mayor Jenderal Qasem Soleimani, dalam serangan di Bandara Baghdad, Irak. Serangan lewat drone dilakukan militer Amerika Serikat atas perintah Presiden AS Donald Trump.Garda Revolusi Iran mengonfirmasi kematian Soleimani. Serangan udara itu juga dilaporkan menewaskan Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis yang menjabat wakil komandan Hashed al-Shaabi atau Pasukan Mobilisasi Populer (PMF) -- milisi pro-Iran di Irak.Disebutkan Pentagon, Soleimani mengatur serangan terhadap pangkalan koalisi di Irak, termasuk 27 Desember 2018 saat serangan roket menewaskan seorang kontraktor sipil AS. "Soleimani juga menyetujui serangan terhadap Kedubes AS di Baghdad pekan ini," ujar Pentagon.Tak heran jika hal itu menjadi topik sangat panas di dunia maya. Cukup banyak yang mencemaskan akan meletus perang skala besar atau bahkan perang dunia akibat peristiwa ini."AS baru membunuh seseorang yang setara wakil presiden Iran. Sulit melihat hal ini tidak akan memuncak menjadi perang. Tak heran Perang Dunia 3 trending," tulis seorang warganet."Saya ingat Barack Obama menjaga perdamaian dengan Iran dan mencegah Perang Dunia 3. Sekarang Donald Trump mencoba memulai Perang Dunia 3 sehingga ia tetap bisa jadi Presiden," tulis yang lain."Mayoritas warga AS ingin perawatan kesehatan lebih baik, gaji lebih tinggi, tidak ada perang. Trump malah mulai perang," protes yang lain."Tweet Perang Dunia III berlebihan karena saya tidak yakin Iran adalah ancaman militer buat AS," sebut komentar berikutnya."Iran tidak berada dalam posisi untuk merespons secara militer. Jangan takut, Perang Dunia III takkan terjadi,"Banyak juga netizen yang menanggapi kabar tersebut dengan nada bercanda. Banyak meme bertebaran dengan topik tersebut.
Indeks Harga Saham gabungan (IHSG) mengawali perdagangan terakhir di pekan ini, Jumat (3/1/2020), di zona hijau.Pada pembukaan perdagangan, IHSG menguat 0,36% ke level 6.306,19. Pada penutupan perdagangan, apresiasi indeks saham acuan di Indonesia tersebut telah bertambah lebar menjadi 0,64% ke level 6.323,47.Dengan apresiasi pada hari ini, maka IHSG resmi memutus rantai pelemahan yang sudah terjadi selama dua hari beruntun.Walaupun IHSG menguat, patut dicatat bahwa perdagangan di pasar saham tanah air pada hari ini berlangsung dengan sangat sepi. Melansir data RTI, volume transaksi pada hari ini hanyalah sebanyak 8,04 miliar unit saham.Padahal menurut data dari Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), rata-rata volume transaksi harian di sepanjang tahun 2019 mencapai 14,54 miliar unit saham.Secara nilainya, jumlah dana yang berputar di pasar saham Indonesia pada hari ini hanyalah Rp 5,74 triliun, jauh di bawah rata-rata nilai transaksi harian di sepanjang tahun 2019 yang mencapai Rp 9,11 triliun.Saham-saham yang berkontribusi signifikan dalam mendongkrak kinerja IHSG pada hari ini di antaranya: PT Bank Central Asia Tbk/BBCA (+1,64%), PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk/TLKM (+1,79%), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk/HMSP (+2,39%), PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk/CPIN (+4,94%), dan PT Astra International Tbk/ASII (+1,09%).Kinerja IHSG pada hari ini berbanding terbalik dengan mayoritas bursa saham utama kawasan Asia yang justru bergerak di zona merah: indeks Shanghai turun 0,05%, indeks Hang Seng melemah 0,32%, dan indeks Straits Times terkoreksi 0,5%. Untuk diketahui, perdagangan di bursa saham Jepang diliburkan pada hari ini.Bursa saham Benua Kuning melemah selepas pasar saham AS alias Wall Street mencetak rekor pada perdagangan kemarin, Kamis (2/1/2019). Pada penutupan perdagangan kemarin, indeks Dow Jones naik 1,16%, indeks S&P 500 menguat 0,84%, dan indeks Nasdaq Composite terapresiasi 1,33%. Ketiga indeks saham acuan di AS tersebut ditutup di level tertinggi sepanjang masa.Wall Street masih menunjukkan performa yang kuat pasca sudah meroket di tahun 2019. Di sepanjang tahun lalu, indeks Dow Jones naik 22,3%, indeks S&P 500 menguat 28,9%, dan indeks Nasdaq Composite terapresiasi lebih dari 35%.Tingginya ekspektasi bahwa AS dan China akan segera meneken kesepakatan dagang tahap satu menjadi faktor yang memantik aksi beli di bursa saham AS. Menjelang tahun baru kemarin, Presiden AS Donald Trump mengungkapkan bahwa kesepakatan dagang tahap satu dengan China akan diteken di Gedung Putih pada tanggal 15 Januari.Hal tersebut diumumkan oleh Trump melalui akun Twitter pribadinya, @realDonaldTrump. Menurut Trump, pejabat tingkat tinggi dari China akan menghadiri penandatanganan kesepakatan dagang tahap satu. Kemudian, Trump juga mengungkapkan bahwa nantinya dirinya akan bertandang ke Beijing guna memulai negosiasi terkait kesepakatan dagang tahap dua.
Seperti yang diketahui, sebelumnya AS dan China mengumumkan bahwa mereka telah berhasil mencapai kesepakatan dagang tahap satu. Dengan adanya kesepakatan dagang tahap satu tersebut, Trump membatalkan rencana untuk mengenakan bea masuk tambahan terhadap produk impor asal China pada tanggal 15 Desember. Untuk diketahui, nilai produk impor asal China yang akan terdampak oleh kebijakan ini sejatinya mencapai US$ 160 miliar.Tak sampai di situ, Trump mengatakan bahwa bea masuk sebesar 15% terhadap produk impor asal China senilai US$ 120 miliar nantinya akan dipangkas menjadi 7,5% saja sebagai bagian dari kesepakatan dagang tahap satu. Di sisi lain, China membatalkan rencana untuk mengenakan bea masuk balasan yang disiapkan guna membalas bea masuk dari AS pada tanggal 15 Desember.Masih sebagai bagian dari kesepakatan dagang tahap satu, China akan meningkatkan pembelian produk agrikultur asal AS secara signifikan. Trump menyebut bahwa China akan segera memulai pembelian produk agrikultur asal AS yang jika ditotal akan mencapai US$ 50 miliar.Lebih lanjut, kesepakatan dagang tahap satu AS-China juga mengatur mengenai komplain dari AS terkait pencurian hak kekayaan intelektual dan transfer teknologi secara paksa yang sering dialami oleh perusahaan-perusahaan asal Negeri Paman Sam.Jika kesepakatan dagang tahap satu benar diteken nantinya, laju perekonomian AS dan China di tahun-tahun mendatang bisa terus dipertahankan di level yang relatif tinggi.Mengingat posisi AS dan China sebagai dua negara dengan nilai perekonomian terbesar di planet bumi, tentu prospek ditekennya kesepakatan dagang yang semakin nyata menjadi kabar yang baik bagi perekonomian dunia.
Mendadak kata kunci Wold War 3 trending topic Twitter pada Jumat 3/12/2020).
Tak diketahui pasti apa yang menyebabkan hal tersebut.
Namun ada dugaan munculnya kata World War 3 kemungkinan terkait serangan militer AS di Bandara Baghdaf, Irak.
Serangan rudal itu menewaskan jenderal top yang merupakan komandan pasukan Quds.
Merunut sejarahnya, perang dunia (world war) I dan II memang mengerikan.
Perang tersebut melibatkan beberapa negara terutama di Eropa.
Perang dunia I melibatkan blok sekutu dan blok sentral.
The US airstrike ordered by Donald Trump killed Iran general Qasam Soleimani outside Baghdad airport in Iraq (Picture: Reuters/AFP)
The phrase ‘World War 3’ began trending after the killing of the Iranian leader’s second in command in a US airstrike.
Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was killed in a bombing ordered by President Donald Trump overnight at Baghdad Airport.
After news of his death broke, the country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei sparked fears of war after he promised ‘harsh vengeance’.
Many of those tweeting about the airstrike used memes to bring light to the situation, joking about fears it could spark ‘World War 3’ – a phrase now trending on Twitter.
Searches for ‘World War 3’ also spiked on Google within hours of the airstrike in Iraq overnight.
Google Trends recorded ‘Iran’ as the second most searched term in the United States, with more than 500,000 searches for the topic.
My dad telling me to be brave and make the family proud after getting deployed for World War 3 pic.twitter.com/6U7W53jBqy — Kadet † (@snillo_) January 3, 2020
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Though much of the comments online mock hysteria surrounding a ‘world war’, there are real fears of repercussions following Soleimani’s death.
In a tweet, Iran’s leader Ayatollah Khomeinei said the ‘criminals’ responsible had ‘his [Soleimani] and other martyrs’ blood on their evil hands’.
He added: ‘God willing, his work and his path will not be stopped.’
The dramatic attack came months of tensions between the US and Iran in which Tehran shot down an American military surveillance drone and seized oil tankers.
This week, Mr Trump blamed Iran for a protest in Iraq which saw demonstrators break into the US embassy in Baghdad and torch the place.
A destroyed vehicle on fire following a US strike on Baghdad Airport road in which top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani was killed (Picture: AFP)
Soleimani was Iran’s second most powerful man (Picture: AP)
Pictures of the embassy’s burned out wreck later emerged, with Mr Trump declaring Iran ‘will pay a very big price’.
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The US also blames the country for a series of attacks targeting tankers, as well as a September assault on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry that temporarily halved its production.
The tensions take root in Mr Trump’s decision in May 2018 to withdraw the US from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, struck under his predecessor, Barack Obama.
Soleimani was the target of Friday’s US attack, which was conducted by an armed American drone, according to a US official.
His vehicle was struck on an access road near the Baghdad airport, killing him and eight others.
Donald Trump had blamed Iran for a demonstration at the US embassy in Iraq this week (Picture: Reuters)
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A senior Iraqi security official said the airstrike took place near the cargo area after Soleimani left his plane to be greeted by al-Muhandis and others.
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The official said the plane had arrived from either Lebanon or Syria.
The US president was holidaying on his estate in Palm Beach, Florida, at the time of the strike, but sent out a tweet of an American flag.
Got a story for Metro.co.uk? Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk. For more stories like this, check our news page.
North Korea leader Kim Jong Un has sparked alarm after he threatened to resume nuclear testing - could we be on the brink of World War Three? Kim announced he is ceasing the suspension of nuclear and long-range missile tests established during talks with the US. The dictator also said North Korea would be introducing "a new strategic weapon".
READ MORE Flights: Woman urged to throw drink over man after he does this Kim’s arsenal is now estimated to include up to 50 nuclear bombs and various delivery systems, including solid-fuel missiles designed to beat missile-defence systems and developmental ICBMs potentially capable of reaching the US mainland. The leader gave no clear indication that a resumption of such tests was imminent and appeared to leave the door open for eventual negotiations. However, if the worst does happen and WW3 does break out - where is the safest place to go? These are the UK’s nuclear bunkers built in the event of a disaster. READ MORE: Cruise: Liner collides with dock in Sicily
World War 3 :Kim announced he is ceasing the suspension of nuclear and long-range missile tests
World War 3: These are the UK’s nuclear bunkers built in the event of a disaster
Drakelow Tunnels These tunnels - found beneath the Kingsford Country Park north of Kidderminster, Worcestershire - were originally part of a factory for Second World War munitions. During the cold war, it served as a nuclear bunker and also housed a BBC studio. The site was sold in 1993 and a cannabis farm of 885 plants was found on the site in 2013. Barnton Quarry This historic bunker was built in the 1950s and was designed to fit around 400 politicians underground. It is found deep underground in Corstorphine Hill. According to Forces Network, the bunker served as Sector Operations Centre for co-coordinating RAF fighter jets and protected Scotland from attacks by Russian long-range nuclear bombers until around 1960. Central Government War Headquarters The 240-acre bunker is in an old underground Bath stone quarry known as Spring Quarry, in Corsham, Wiltshire. After the Cold War, it was taken over by the MoD. The site was put up for sale in October 2005, and proposed plans for it included a data store or the “biggest wine cellar in Europe.” DON'T MISS Flights: Man filmed urinating in airport terminal [PHOTO] Flights: Ryanair launches low-cost new year sale [DEAL] Flight attendant reveals the gifts she’s received from passengers [INSIDER]
RAF High Wycombe The RAF operations centre at High Wycombe has a nuclear bunker. According to Civil Defence Today, it cost approximately £83million to build. From this bunker, the warning message would have been issued to the United Kingdom Warning and Monitoring Organisation (UKWMO) and would be the trigger for today's National attack warning system. Anchor telephone exchange The Anchor telephone exchange in Birmingham is one of three built in the UK before World War II. The entrance could be found at the back of Telephone House, between Lionel Street and Fleet Street. Another entrance was on Newhall Street. Workers at the Anchor telephone exchange were not told they were working on a nuclear bunker during construction and could not tell their family about their work. The building has been closed down now due to asbestos but the Mess Room and Canteen are intact. Castleton Cold War Bunker This bunker in North Yorkshire, built in April 1959, was manned by Royal Observer Corps (ROC) personnel. They would monitor the skies and radiation levels and were ready to act to protect the local residents. Once damaged by vandals, the Castleton bunker has since been restored and is now a museum.
World War 3: The RAF operations centre at High Wycombe has a nuclear bunker
READ MORE WW3: President's claim US will ‘take initiative’ in nuclear war RNAD Coulport Royal Naval Armaments Depot Coulport, shortened to RNAD Coulport, on Loch Long in Argyll, sorts nuclear warheads for trident. Kelvedon Hatch Secret Nuclear Bunker This bunker in Essex was first built as an air defence station and became a bunker. Now it is open to the public as a tourist attraction and houses a museum dedicated to the Cold War. York Cold War Bunker This bunker, in Colgate, York, was built in 1961. It serves as the regional headquarters and control centre for the Royal Observer Corps's No. 20 Group. Now it is an English Heritage Scheduled Monument. Brackla Hiding underneath the ground of this housing estate in Bridgend Wales is a nuclear bunker developed in the 1960s. It was sold in 1996 and entry is denied. Wood Norton, Worcestershire This is a stately home in Evesham, Worcestershire. The Bredon Wing has a 175-foot bunker beneath it.
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World War 3: York Cold War Bunker was built in 1961
The US President also warned Iran that it “will pay a very big price” for any damage or loss of life to US citizens in the embassy. Trump said: “This is not a warning, it is a threat.” On Tuesday the US Defence Secretary, Mark Esper, confirmed that 750 paratroopers were already on their way to the Middle East.
He added that additional troops were preparing to deploy over the coming days, as the US ramps up its response to the crisis. Three US defence officials told the US TV channel Fox News that the deployment would involve 4,000 soldiers. Mr Esper said on New Year’s Eve: “This deployment is an appropriate and precautionary action taken in response to increased threat levels against U.S. personnel and facilities, such as we witnessed in Baghdad today.” In a further tweet, the Defence Secretary wrote: “The United States will protect our people and interests anywhere they are found around the world.”
World war 3: Donald Trump
World war 3: Mark Esper
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called the outrage an act of “state-sponsored terrorism” that was “abetted by Iranian proxies” in an interview with CBS News. The US compound in Baghdad was attacked by some 6,000 demonstrators furious over the deaths of militia members in US air strikes. On Sunday night US jet fighters bombed five weapon depots in Iraq and Syria controlled by the Iranian backed militia Kataeb Hezbollah, killing at least 25 people and wounding 51. The raids were in retaliation for last week's 36-rocket attack which killed an American contractor and injured several others at a base in Kirkuk, 170 miles north of Baghdad. JUST IN: Iran vs US: Ayatollah condemns US airstrikes and warns Trump
The attack on the US embassy followed the funerals of the dead militia fighters, which attracted thousands of mourners. After the processions, mourners and protestors rushed through the heavily fortified Green Zone without being stopped by Iraqi military. They burned US flags and chanted 'Death to America! as they made their way to the embassy. The protestors proceeded to storm the main door and set fire to the reception area, forcing US soldiers inside to fire tear gas, stun grenades and warning shots. DON'T MISS UK terrorist Jihadi Jack who wants to come home part of terror family [Update]
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World war 3: Iraqi protesters outside US embassy
World war 3: Inside US embassy Baghdad
In the ensuing chaos 62 of the Iraqi assailants were injured, while no US citizens were reported hurt. The US President strongly condemned the attack and pinned the blame squarely on Iran.
World war 3: Middle East map
Trump said: “Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will. “Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible.
World war 3: Mike Pompeo
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His comments came in a Story magazine article dated November 1961, following the Berlin Crisis over the occupational status of the German capital. The incident started when the USSR launched an ultimatum demanding the withdrawal of all armed forces from Berlin, including the Western armed forces in West Berlin. The crisis culminated in the city's de facto partition with the East German erection of the Berlin Wall, but JFK was worried the Soviets would not stop there.
Assuming forces may try to push further into Europe, he wrote in a magazine article following the events: "Berlin developments may confront us with a situation where we may desire to take the initiative in the escalation of conflict from the local to the general war level.” His comments referred to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all. “Consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” However, they sparked fear worldwide after they were interpreted as plans to launch a nuclear attack on the USSR.
JFK sparked worry across the world
The Berlin Wall being erected in 1961
We may desire to take the initiative in the escalation of conflict John F. Kennedy
Documents seen by Express.co.uk reveal a worrying exchange between the UK Ambassador, David Ormsby-Gore, and the President in March 1962. Mr Ormsby-Gore asked via telegram: “Mr President, could you elaborate on the idea attributed to you in a magazine article that there may be circumstances under which we would have to take the initiative in a nuclear war?” To which Kennedy responded: “Yes, I think Mr (Jerome David) Salinger’s statement made it very clear that this was intended to be merely a restatement of a traditional position where if a vital area like Western Europe, was being overrun by conventional forces, that the US would take means available to defend it. "It was not intended to suggest, as Mr Salinger said, that this meant the United States would take aggressive action on its own part, or would launch an attack, a so-called preventive attack on its part. READ MORE: UK's chilling ‘execution’ plan for nuclear war anarchy exposed
Daid Ornsby-Gore besides JFK
“It is not our policy, nor the policy of previous administrations and the article read in context made it clear that if there was an attack of overwhelming proportions by conventional forces in an area such as Europe, we would meet our treaty commitments.” Thankfully, the President’s comments calmed tensions, for a few months at least. But, on October 16, they skyrocketed again after Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to fulfil Fidel Castro’s request to place nuclear missiles on the Caribbean island of Cuba. The discovery by the US-led to a 13-day confrontation, which is considered to be the closest the world has come to nuclear war. DON'T MISS
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Fidel Castro in the Sixties
JFK During the Cuban Missile Crisis
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The US and China are accelerating the building of space warfare capabilities as part of a race to dominate the area beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Air Force General John W. Raymond, commander of the Pentagon’s new Space Command, said last month revealed the threat of attacks against satellites vital for American defence and infrastructure is real.
He told the Center for Strategic and International Studies: “I can tell you from my perspective, the scope, scale and complexity of that threat is alive and well and very concerning.”
he Chinese military has described space as the strategic commanding height of military competition and sees it as the high ground in future warfare Elsa Kania
Elsa Kania, an adjunct Senior Fellow with the Center for New American Security believes China recognises near-Earth orbit as having military importance. She told Express.co.uk: “The Chinese military has described space as the strategic commanding height of military competition and sees it as the high ground in future warfare, the notion that future warfare could start in space with a first strike against space systems and a focus on try looking to leverage this domain both as an important enabler of military capability and as a means of targeting the US military, which it sees as asymmetrically dependent upon space as a domain. “The belief that if the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), were to target US space systems that could critically undermine the battle networks that the US military is dependent upon and could essentially allow China to win without fighting in a sense.
WW3 fears are again on the rise between the US and China
World War 3: The Chinese clearly have an ambitious space program
“So I think there is the notion we are seeing space become a really critical element of military competition, both in peacetime and one that would be very critical to any future conflict scenario.” The national security expert also believes it is not hyperbole to view China’s growing power in the theatre of space as a threat to the US. She said: “Chinese intentions and capabilities in space do present a near-term threat and long-term challenge to a domain that is increasingly becoming complex and contested on a number of levels. “And we're also seeing greater commercial activities in space at a time the US is actually decreasing its own investments.
READ MORE Was Darwin wrong? New evolution theory ’can help find alien life' “China and Europe are increasing their investments in support for different elements of space science. We're seeing China aspiring to become a superpower in space and trying to leverage the full benefits of this domain, not only economically, but also militarily. “And we're also seeing new technologies and new opportunities to think about expanding human presence and the exploitation of space. “So there are elements that are exciting and also elements that are quite concerning.”
World War 3: The US and China are reportedly accelerating the building space warfare capabilities
However, Dr Gregory Kulacki, China Project Manager at the Union of Concerned Scientists, believes China’s increasing influence has been misrepresented and can only have a positive impact. He told Exprewss.co.uk via email: “China’s space program would rank second among all nations well behind the United States both in numbers of satellites and the quality of the instruments they carry for military, economic and scientific missions. “That said, China has a much larger and much younger pool of scientists, engineers and other specialists in their program and is making steady progress across the board. “China is not at all desperate, nor is it racing or competing with others.
Astronaut James van Hoften on the Space Shuttle Discovery's robot arm as he tracks the US Navy's Syncom IV-3 satellite
“It is, however, making steady efforts to develop and apply space technology to meet its civilian, scientific and military needs. “It is also open to cooperation with other space-faring nation’s. “Space cannot be conquered or dominated, and Chinese space professionals do not think about space in these terms. “This is an odd and inaccurate vocabulary promoted by a small but influential group of US officials and experts who are uncomfortable that China now has the same kinds of space technologies that the US has enjoyed for decades and are uncomfortable with increasing parity and its implications. “Chinese space capabilities increase both its economic, military and scientific standing relative to the past. “Some see this as a threat, but it is also an opportunity.
World War 3: CHina's Change'4 rover marks only the start of an ambitiously aggressive space program
“New Chinese capabilities and investments will increase both what we know about space and what we can do, both here on earth and beyond.” China’s strategy for dominating space was revealed last month in the annual report of the congressional US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The commission report warned how China wants to dominate the area between Earth and the Moon, known as cislunar space, as part of what the Communist Party of China has dubbed the “Space Dream”. China is planning a permanent base on the Moon as part of the dual military and commercial programme. The report reads: “Beijing is clearly of the view the country that leads in space may also be economically and militarily dominant on Earth.”
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Key Point: The Warsaw Pact planned a decapitating nuclear strike across central Europe.
Last month in the National Interest we discussed NATO’s plan for World War III in Europe. The scenario, set in the late 1980s, assumed that the forces of the Soviet Union and the rest of the Warsaw Pact—namely East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary—steamrollered West Germany to defeat NATO. The plan assumed the western alliance would defend as far forward as possible while avoiding the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
But what about the Warsaw Pact? After the Cold War ended, the Polish government made public classified Soviet documents that revealed the likely war plan. The plan, known as “Seven Days to the Rhine,” was the basis of 1979 military exercise that assumed NATO as the aggressor, having nuked a series of twenty-five targets in Poland, including Warsaw and the port of Gdansk. The cover story of countering aggression was a mere fig leaf for the true nature of the anticipated conflict: a bolt-from-the-blue Soviet attack against NATO.
By the 1980s NATO had shifted to a “Flexible Response” nuclear doctrine: the alliance was prepared to use nuclear weapons, but would seek to win the war conventionally. This is in stark contrast to the Warsaw Pact, which saw their use as inevitable and planned to use them from the outset. Such early would confer the pact an enormous strategic advantage over NATO.
In “Seven Days to the Rhine,” Soviet nuclear forces would destroy Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Munich and the West German capital of Bonn. NATO headquarters in Brussels would be annihilated, as would the Belgian port of Antwerp. The Dutch capital and port of Amsterdam would also be destroyed. Denmark would suffer two nuclear strikes.
The result would be a headless NATO and the destruction or demoralization of civilian governments in West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark—precisely the countries likely to be occupied at the end of the seven days. The elimination of the port cities of Hamburg, Antwerp and Amsterdam would severely curtail NATO’s ability to flow reinforcements from the United Kingdom and North America.
Read the original article.
As the United States enters an election year, prospects for global stability remain uncertain. President Trump’s foreign policy stood at odds with those of his predecessor, and will likely a central point of contestation in the election. At this point, several crises might emerge that would not only turn the election, but potentially bring about a wider global conflict.
Here are the five most likely flashpoints for world war in 2020 (See my World War III lists from back in 2017, 2018 and 2019).
None are particularly likely, but only one needs to catch fire. Let the wars begin!
Iran-Israel:
Iran and Israel are already waging low-intensity war across the Middle East. Iran supports anti-Israel proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere, while Israel feels comfortable in striking Iranian forces across the region. Israel has taken steps to quietly build a broad anti-Iran coalition at the diplomatic level, while Iran has invested deeply in cultivating ties with militias and other non-state actors.
It is hardly difficult to imagine scenarios that might bring on a wider, more intense war. If Iran determines to re-embark on its nuclear program, or decides to discipline Saudi Arabia more thoroughly, Israel might feel the temptation to engage in broader strikes, or in strikes directly against the Iranian homeland. Such a conflict could easily have wider implications, threatening global oil supplies and potentially tempting the United States or Russia to intervene.
Turkey:
Strains between Turkey and the United States have only grown over the past year. Tensions increased dramatically when the United States unexpectedly gave Turkey a green light to clear Syrian border areas of U.S.-supported Kurds, then immediately issued an about-face and threatened Ankara with sanctions. All the while, an arsenal of US nuclear weapons, by all accounts, remains at Incirlik Air Force base. Certain statements by President Erdogan suggested that he has immense aspirations for Turkey, aspirations which might include nuclear ambitions.
The state of the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey has decayed to the extent that some fear for the future of the NATO alliance. No one expects Erdogan to really go through with an attempted seizure of the weapons, and even if he did it’s unlikely Turkey could break the safeguards on the warheads in any kind of reasonable time. But Erdogan is not known to compartmentalize issues well, and it’s possible that linkages with other problems could push Washington and Ankara to the very edge. And of course, Russia hovers on the edge of the problem,
Kashmir:
Over the past decade, the gap in conventional power between India and Pakistan has only grown, even as Pakistan has tried to heal that gap with nuclear weapons. Despite (or perhaps because) of this, tensions between the rivals remained at a low simmer until steps taken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reduce the autonomy of Kashmir and to change citizenship policies within the rest of India. These steps have caused some unrest within India, and have highlighted the long-standing tensions between Delhi and Islamabad.
Further domestic disturbances within India could give Pakistan (or extremist groups within Pakistan) the idea that it has the opportunity, or perhaps even the responsibility, to intervene in some fashion. While this is unlikely to begin with conventional military action, it could consist of terrorist attacks internationally, in Kashmir, or internationally. If this happened, Modi might feel forced to respond in some fashion, leading to a ladder of escalation that could bring the two countries to the brink of a more serious conflict. Given China’s looming position and the growing relationship between Delhi and Washington, this kind of conflict could have remarkably disastrous international ripple effects.
Korean Peninsula:
A year ago, hope remained that negotiations between the United States and North Korea could succeed in permanently reducing tensions of the peninsula. Unfortunately, core problems in the domestic situations of both countries, along with a puzzling strategic conundrum, have prevented any agreement from taking hold. Tensions between the two countries now stand as high as at any time since 2017, and the impending U.S. election could imperil relations further.
The Trump administration continues to seem to hold out hope that a deal with North Korea could improve its electoral prospects in November. But North Korea has no interest in the terms Trump is offering, and has become increasingly emphatic about making its disinterest clear. Recently, North Korea promised a “Christmas present” that many in the United States worried would be a nuclear or ballistic missile test. It turned out to be nothing of the sort, but if North Korea decides to undertake an ICBM or (worse) nuclear test, the Trump administration might feel the need to intervene forcefully. In particular, President Trump has a reputation for pursuing a deeply personalistic foreign policy style, and might feel betrayed by Supreme Leader Kim, producing an even more uncertain situation.
South China Sea:
U.S.-China relations stand at a precarious point. A trade deal between the two countries would seem to alleviate some tensions, but implementation remains in question. Economic difficulties in China have curtailed some of its naval construction program, just as a flattening of the defense budget in the United States has moderated shipbuilding ambitions. At the same time, China has worked assiduously to assure its relations with Russia, while the United States has sparked controversies with both South Korea and Japan, its two closest allies in the region.
Under such circumstances, it seems unlikely that either country would risk conflict. But President Trump has staked much of his Presidency on confrontation with China, and may feel tempted to escalate the situation in the coming year. For his part, President Xi faces the continuous prospect of turmoil at home, both in the Han heartland and in Xinjiang. Both sides, thus, have incentives for diplomatic and economic escalation, which always could lead to military confrontation in areas such as the South or East China Seas.
What Does the Future Hold for 2020?
The prospect of global conflagration in 2020 is low. Everyone awaits the result of the U.S. election, and a better understanding of the direction of US policy for the next four years. Still, every crisis proceeds by its own logic, and any of Pakistan, India, China, Israel, Iran, Turkey, or Russia might feel compelled by events to act. Focus on the election should not obscure the frictions between nations that could provide the spark for the next war.
Dr. Robert Farley, a frequent contributor to TNI, teaches at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. He is the author of the Battleship Book and can be found at @drfarls.
Image: Reuters.
