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Emerging markets are rebounding from the second-quarter horror show, but for South Africa’s rand October still holds large risks.
Two events, in particular, loom large: Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene’s medium-term budget policy statement, and a review of the country’s credit ratings by Moody’s Investors Service.
The rand rebounded more than 3% in September after a 9.6% slump in August, the worst for that month on record. It could extend gains as the dollar resumes its long-term decline, according to Neels Heyneke and Mehul Daya, strategists at Johannesburg-based Nedbank.
Much hinges, however, on Nene, who has to reassure both Moody’s and investors that he has a handle on spending and debt.
Last year, a widening fiscal deficit and slower economic growth projections led S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings to strip the country of its investment rating, sending yields skyrocketing and the rand weaker. That won’t be easy, given that the economy is struggling to emerge from a first-half recession.
“October is key,” said Christopher Shiells, a London-based emerging-markets analyst at Informa Global Markets. “We and Moody’s want to see a medium-term budget policy statement that focuses on fiscal consolidation, and stabilising debt levels, given the low growth environment.”
A positive statement from Nene could push the rand to about 13.75 per dollar, from around 14.22 on Friday, he said
Moody’s rates South Africa’s local-currency debt at Baa3, the lowest investment level. The rating company’s stable outlook on the debt means there is little chance of a change in the assessment soon, though it said last month South Africa has to stabilise its debt to prevent a change to negative.
Disappointing Moody’s would prove costly. Foreign investors own almost 40% of South Africa’s R1.97 trn of local-currency bonds. Should the country lose its investment rating, it would be excluded from Citigroup’s World Government Bond Index (WGBI), sparking outflows of about $5bn (about R70bn) as investors who track the gauge are forced to sell, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“The bar for Moody’s to act remains high but WGBI exclusion is a long-term risk,” Gabriele Foa, a London-based analyst at BofAML, said in a note dated September 26. “Rough math suggests that while it is not an immediate risk, the long-term risks from potential investment grade losses remain elevated.”
Moody’s was scheduled to review South Africa’s credit rating on October 12, but said last month it may delay until after the budget statement on October 24. For now, traders aren’t overly concerned, if options pricing is anything to go by.
The premium of options to sell the currency over those to buy it in the next month, known as the 25 Delta risk reversal, dropped 38 basis points on Friday to 3 percentage points, the lowest in almost two months.
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There was a point in my mid 20s where I had a solid 4-beer-a-day habit. At the time I was dating a brewer and my entire social life just happened to be tied to beer. Going out at night to meet friends for a beer or cracking open a few bottles a pal had brought back from a recent trip (or that my boyfriend had just made) was just what we did. Those four beers were probably consumed over an eight hour period, so I wasn’t getting wasted every night, but even then at one point I had a moment of reckoning with myself and made moves to cut back.
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For me, my official solution was to trade a few of those beers for Diet Coke. Although it’s arguably also not all that good for you, I felt better about having two beers and two diet cokes each night rather than so much beer. Diet Coke kind of looks like a stout if people aren’t looking too carefully, and it satisfied my need to hold something in my hand and be drinking while hanging out with folks without consuming so much alcohol.
Drinking less alcohol is definitely a trend. Now there are low-ABV “session beers” and a number of cocktail bars are putting out session cocktails with a lower alcohol content than their boozy counterparts. Sober September also became a thing amongst some of my friends, and apparently (according to social media) “Sober for October” is also gaining some traction.
So, how do you stop drinking cold turkey?
The Evening Standard recently talked to a doctor to get some tips.
She says that if you’re a heavy drinker it’s best not to go cold turkey. If your body is used to getting a lot of alcohol then cutting yourself off entirely can lead to things like headaches and trembling hands. Instead, try gradually scaling back. So, if you’re drinking four beers a day, maybe try three for a week and then two.
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It’s also important to tell your closest friends, the people you’re drinking with all the time, about your goals. If a friend knows that you’re trying to cut back on drinking and why then they can be supportive in your endeavor rather than counterproductive to it.
Location also matters. Try to find a bar that serves cocktails or has other non-alcoholic drink options. What I learn from my own personal scaling back was that for the most part, it wasn’t the beer I wanted (although beer is great and I love it), it was the social interaction with my pals. You can have that with a Coke just as easily.
And perhaps her best piece of advice: “Like anything else in life, it’s important always to be yourself and not be swayed by other people judging you or by thinking they are judging you... So please remember that if you think people are going to judge you harshly for drinking less, it is those people who have the problem, not you.”
Peace, love, and…discord? October, which is usually a season to come together, could threaten to pull us apart. At least, it could if we don't work out our differences and clear up the resentments that have been silently brewing. Understanding the cosmic landscape of this month will help us clear that path…but a walk through our own shadows may be part of the journey.
As per usual, the Sun will make its annual trek through Libra, the sign of cooperation and partnership, until October 23. That will set the backdrop for compromise at least, especially at the October 8 Libra new moon. Broker your peace treatise under these proactive moonbeams if at all possible!
But prepare to leave no stone unturned, because from October 5 to November 16, Venus, the planet of peace, love, and mutuality (and Libra's ruling planet), will turn retrograde. This tricky transit, which happens for six weeks every 18 months, can cause relationship rough patches, sudden splits, or the (aaggghh!) return of an ex. Hey, if timing wasn't on your side the first go-round, maybe Venus will give you a fortuitous do-over. Just make sure you address the issues that split you up the first time.
