Hurricane Florence became a category 4 storm on Monday, sustaining winds of close to 130mph (195km/h) on its path toward the US east coast where it is forecast to make landfall on Thursday.
Hurricane severity The grey cone shows the likely path of the centre of the hurricane. It does not indicate the size of the storm All times in Eastern Daylight Time | Source: US National Hurricane Center | Last updated: 12 September, 5:55am
The National Hurricane Center is warning that a life-threatening storm surge along the coast of South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia is likely. Forecasters are also warning of heavy rainfall which could cause life-threatening flooding further inland.
Based on historical forecasts, the NHC track forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty”, is the probable path of the centre of a tropical cyclone. The cone increases in size over time to indicate the greater areas of uncertainty about its path.
The majority of flooding from the storm surge is caused by a phenomenon known as the Coriolis effect. The Earth’s rotation causes storms in the northern hemisphere to rotate anticlockwise, meaning a hurricane’s winds are deflected toward the right of the storm’s centre. Storms in the southern hemisphere behave the opposite way.
WILMINGTON, N.C. — Motorists streamed inland on highways converted to one-way evacuation routes Tuesday as about 1.7 million people in three states were warned to get out of the way of Hurricane Florence. The hair-raising storm is taking dead aim at the Carolinas with 140 mph winds and potentially ruinous rains.
Florence was expected to blow ashore late Thursday or early Friday, then slow down and wring itself out for days, unloading 1 to 2½ feet of rain that could cause flooding well inland and wreak environmental havoc by washing over industrial waste sites and hog farms. Forecasters and politicians pleaded with the public to take the warnings seriously and minced no words in describing the threat.
"This storm is a monster. It's big and it's vicious. It is an extremely, dangerous, life-threatening, historic hurricane," North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said."The waves and the wind this storm may bring is nothing like you've ever seen. Even if you've ridden out storms before, this one is different. Don't bet your life on riding out a monster."
Florence was centered 785 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, moving west-northwest at 17 mph, the center said in its 5 p.m. advisory. Warnings have been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.
A tropical storm watch has been issued from north of the North Carolina-Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. Some hoped for divine intervention.
"I'm prayed up and as ready as I can get," Steven Hendrick said as he filled up gasoline cans near Conway, South Carolina.
President Trump declared states of emergency for North and South Carolina and Virginia, opening the way for federal aid. He said the federal government is "absolutely, totally prepared" for Florence. All three states ordered mass evacuations along the coast. But getting out of harm's way could prove difficult.
Florence is so wide that a life-threatening storm surge was being pushed 300 miles ahead of its eye, and so wet that a swath from South Carolina to Ohio and Pennsylvania could get deluged. People across the region rushed to buy bottled water and other supplies, board up their homes, pull their boats out of the water and get out of town.
A line of heavy traffic moved away from the coast on Interstate 40, the main route between the port city of Wilmington and inland Raleigh. Between the two cities, about two hours apart, the traffic flowed smoothly in places and became gridlocked in others because of fender-benders.
Only a trickle of vehicles was going in the opposite direction, including pickup trucks carrying plywood and other building materials. Long lines formed at service stations, and some started running out of gas as far west as Raleigh, with bright yellow bags, signs or rags placed over the pumps to show they were out of order. Some store shelves were picked clean.
"There's no water. There's no juices. There's no canned goods," Kristin Harrington said as she shopped at a Walmart in Wilmington.
Florence is the most dangerous of three tropical systems in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Isaac was east of the Lesser Antilles and expected to pass south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, while Hurricane Helene was moving northward away from land. Forecasters also were tracking two other disturbances.
The coastal surge from Florence could leave the eastern tip of North Carolina under more than 9 feet of water in spots, projections showed. "This one really scares me," National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham said.
Federal officials begged residents to put together emergency kits and have a plan on where to go.
"This storm is going to knock out power days into weeks. It's going to destroy infrastructure. It's going to destroy homes," said Jeff Byard, an official at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Forecasters said parts of North Carolina could get 20 inches of rain, if not more, with as much as 10 inches elsewhere in the state and in Virginia, parts of Maryland and Washington, D.C.
One trusted computer model, the European simulation, predicted more than 45 inches in parts of North Carolina. A year ago, people would have laughed off such a forecast, but the European model was accurate in predicting 60 inches for Hurricane Harvey in the Houston area, so "you start to wonder what these models know that we don't," University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy said.
Florence's projected path includes half a dozen nuclear power plants, pits holding coal-ash and other industrial waste, and numerous hog farms that store animal waste in huge lagoons.
Duke Energy spokesman Ryan Mosier said operators would begin shutting down nuclear plants at least two hours before hurricane-force winds arrive.
North Carolina's governor issued what he called a first-of-its-kind mandatory evacuation order for North Carolina's fragile barrier islands from one end of the coast to the other. Typically, local governments in North Carolina make the call on evacuations.
"We've seen nor'easters and we've seen hurricanes before," Cooper said, "but this one is different."
Hurricane Florence remained a powerful Category 4 hurricane and was getting bigger, stronger and better organized as it tracked closer to the U.S. on Tuesday night.
Hurricane and storm surge watches have been upgraded to warnings for parts of the North and South Carolina coasts.
The National Hurricane Center reeled off the list of potential threats from the storm on Tuesday: Damaging winds, life-threatening surge and widespread "catastrophic" flooding will all be possible in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states as Florence comes ashore -- which could be late Thursday or early Friday.
Forecasters were particularly worried about flooding and storm surge, which could potentially reach as high as 12 feet in some areas on the coast.
And there is still some uncertainty in the longer-range forecast track.
"It should be noted that, due to increased model spread, there is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast," the hurricane center said in its 10 p.m. CDT discussion.
"It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves."
Get more weather news here: www.al.com/hurricane
As of 10 p.m. CDT Tuesday, Hurricane Florence was located about 670 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, N.C., and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph.
Florence was still a Category 4 storm, with winds of 140 mph.
Watch tonight's sunset over #HurricaneFlorence, captured by the #GOESEast satellite, as the storm draws closer to the East Coast. Latest real-time imagery: https://t.co/bKPHNSAQeq pic.twitter.com/k79Q3v8CuR -- NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) September 12, 2018
However, there's little (except eye wall replacement cycles) to keep Florence from strengthening some more over the next day or so, and it could approach Category 5 intensity.
Some weakening is expected on Thursday, but Florence is forecast to be "an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall," the hurricane center said.
Florence is expected to slow down starting late Thursday. On the forecast track, the storm will approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday.
Here are the watches and warnings as of 10 p.m. CDT Tuesday:
A storm surge warning is in effect from the South Santee River in South Carolina to Duck, N.C. as well as the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds and Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.
A storm surge watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, S.C., to South Santee River, S.C. as well as from north of Duck, N.C., to the North Carolina/Virginia border.
A hurricane warning is in effect from the South Santee River to Duck and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.
A hurricane watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, S.C., to the South Santee River and from north of Duck, N.C., to the North Carolina/Virginia border.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light in Virginia and Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.
In addition to concerns about storm surge, the hurricane center is also worried about the prospect of "catastrophic" inland flooding.
The hurricane center has increased its rainfall projects, now saying 15 to 25 inches of rain will be possible in parts of the Carolinas through Saturday. Some areas could get up to 35 inches.
Hurricane conditions could begin in the warning areas by Friday. Tropical storm winds could reach the coast by Thursday, which will make finishing up preparations difficult, the hurricane center said.
There were several other areas of concern in the Atlantic on Tuesday -- though none as intense as Florence.
Hurricane Helene had 100 mph winds in the east-central Atlantic and isn't an immediate threat to land, though it could come near the Azores over the weekend.
Then there's Tropical Storm Isaac, which is forecast to move over the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean on Thursday. Hurricane watches were issued for some of those islands on Tuesday.
And a new tropical depression has the potential to form in the next few days in the Gulf of Mexico -- the chances were up to 70 percent as of Tuesday night.
Millions are preparing for the potentially catastrophic impact of Hurricane Florence, as the category 4 storm continues its menacing path towards the Carolina coasts in the southeast United States.
Florence, as of Tuesday morning, was roughly 950 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, and approximately 450 miles south of Bermuda, according to the National Hurricane Centre (NHC).
That government centre, which tracks the speed and location of hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific, says that the hurricane is moving towards the US at a speed of 15 mph, with sustained winds at about 130 mph.
Forecasts for Florence predict the storm barrelling down on the southeastern US later this week, with tropical storm force winds impacting the coast as early as Wednesday evening before more significant conditions are seen Thursday.
“On the forecast track, the centre of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday,” the NHC said.
Officials have already issued evacuation orders for some of the areas expected to be hit the hardest, with more than a million fleeing the coastal regions. Governors in North and South Carolina, as well as Virginia and Maryland, have declared states of emergency — freeing up emergency funds to handle hurricane response and recovery operations.
It is likely that, wherever the hurricane comes ashore, the area will be devastated — and landfall is expected to be followed by days of torrential rain and damaging winds if the storm stalls over the Carolinas and Virginia.
The particulars of this storm — which is currently projected to hit the coast as a category 4 storm but could potentially strengthen before then — could mean this storm is of historic proportions.
“All of our computer models that we really like, that we say these are the accurate ones, are all lining up and saying this thing’s going to explode, this thing’s going to move West and then eventually Northwest,” Jon Cash, a meteorologist, told CBN News.
“The key really is this thing is going to be a huge storm when it threatens the coast and this is just something that doesn’t happen every day when you see things lining up as they are,” he continued.
