The peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is Sept. 10, and right on schedule, the Atlantic Basin has come to life with numerous areas of concern. Foremost among those is Tropical Storm Florence, which is expected to restrengthen into a hurricane next week and looks increasingly likely to hit the East Coast.
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North Carolina already declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm on Friday.
Tropical Storm Florence has winds of 65 mph on Saturday morning as it is located 840 miles southeast of Bermuda. The storm is moving west at 9 mph.
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Florence is still a tropical storm, but is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday, and a major hurricane again early next week.
The storm is forecast to move generally in a westward direction over the coming days, with an increase in forward speed during the early part of the week. On this path, Florence will track over the warm waters off the southeast U.S. coastline.
As Florence moves west, the wind shear will decrease, allowing Florence to become more organized and intensify. There is a possibility of significant intensification in the early part of next week.
A ridge of high pressure moving in from the central U.S. is expected to move toward the Northeast by midweek. This ridge of high pressure will cause a blocking pattern and steer Florence dangerously close to, or into, the East Coast of the U.S. by midweek. The forecast track shows Florence’s forecast path approaching the southeast U.S. coastline late next week.
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The risk of direct impact by Florence on the East Coast is rising. Most of the models are now showing Florence having a direct and major impact to the East Coast in the upcoming week. It is important to note that there is considerable uncertainty five days out, making it too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of potential major impacts to the East Coast.
The immediate threat this weekend will be large swells and dangerous rip currents along the East Coast due to the storm.
Helene forms, tropical depression targets Caribbean
Tropical Storm Helene formed just west of Africa in the early morning hours of Saturday. Helene has winds of 45 mph, and is 330 miles from the Cabo Verde Islands. The storm is moving west at 13 mph.
Helene is forecast to strengthen, with tropical storm conditions reaching the Cabo Verde Islands Saturday. Locally, up to 8 inches of rain is expected in the Cabo Verde Islands.
Helene will likely become a hurricane next week.
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Moving closer to the Caribbean, Tropical Depression Nine has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph Saturday morning, and is currently 172 miles east of the Windward Islands. The system is moving west-northwest at 5 mph.
The system is expected to move westward over the coming days, and will likely become a tropical storm later Saturday. The forecast track has the storm strengthening to a hurricane next week as is tracks west.
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It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this system will have on the Caribbean. However, the system is worth watching as we get into next week as it nears the Lesser Antilles.
Olivia approaching Hawaii
The Pacific Ocean is also lively this weekend.
Hurricane Olivia had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, and was approximately 1,370 miles east of Honolulu as of 11 p.m. local time.
Olivia is expected to move west-northwest through Saturday, before turning more westward on Sunday. The storm will slowly weaken over the next few days.
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Olivia is expected to approach the main Hawaiian Islands early next week, but it is too early to determine the magnitude of the potential impacts.
It is important to note that significant impacts are possible well away from the center of the storm, and that the track error can be quite large at day 5 and beyond.
MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Florence is expected to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday night, the National Hurricane Center says. "Rapid intensification" is forecast to begin on Sunday, and by Tuesday, the storm is expected to be a major hurricane.
"On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern U.S. coast on Thursday," the center said Saturday morning in an advisory.
Tropical Storm #Florence Advisory 37: Florence Becoming Better Organized. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 8, 2018
Florence has created swells that are affecting Bermuda, according to the National Hurricane Center. Over the weekend, swells will reach parts of the U.S. East Coast and "are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," it said.
NOAA
On Friday, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency. "While it's still too early to know the storm's path, we know we have to be prepared," Cooper said in a news release, CBS Raleigh affiliate WNCN reported. "During harvest, time is of the essence. Action today can avoid losses due to Florence."
Improving atmospheric conditions were expected to allow Florence to regain its former strength. The storm reached major hurricane status Wednesday, peaking with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.
Gordon remnants to drop heavy rain
A soaking rainstorm, of which Gordon is a part, was expected to raise the risk of flooding in portions of the Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys on Saturday.
Gordon made landfall as a tropical storm on Monday and by the end of the week it was a tropical depression. Flash flood watches were in effect as of Friday night for parts of central Arkansas and Missouri into the Ohio River Valley.
"Gordon and its transition to an extra-tropical low could produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Missouri into the Midwest, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Monday. This rainfall will likely cause local flooding and flash flooding," the National Hurricane Center said Friday night.
Tropical Storm Helene
Tropical Storm Helene formed off the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde islands late Friday, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to the Cabo Verde islands by Saturday night.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch was in effect for the Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava.
Tropical Storm #Helene Advisory 5: Helene Continuing Westward Toward the Southern Cabo Verde Islands. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 8, 2018
Other tropical entities in Atlantic
The Atlantic is "really heating up" with multiple tropical entities, the National Weather Service tweeted Friday night. Another low pressure system off the coast of Africa behind Florence had high chances of developing into tropical storms, forecasters said.
"Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place," hurricane specialist David Zelinsky wrote in a forecast advisory.
There's also a low pressure system near Bermuda has a 10 percent chance of becoming a storm.
The Atlantic hurricane season peaks around Sept. 10 or 11.
Hurricane Florence has downgraded to a tropical storm but is expected to regain hurricane status as its path hurls towards the U.S. East Coast in the next week.
Florence’s wind speed have decreased and as of Friday the tropical storm has had a maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, down from 140 mph, but is expected to strengthen in the next coming days.
Florence is currently 1,600 miles from the East Coast and moving toward Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said. As Florence’s path moves closer to the U.S. coastline in the next week Florence is expected to regain category three hurricane status. It is not yet known if Florence will make landfall.
Tropical Storm Florence Spaghetti Model Photo Courtesy Cyclocane
The first Category 4 hurricane of 2018 of the Atlantic season, Florence formed near the Cabo Verde Islands last weekend. AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski expects high pressures to strengthen Florence.
“An area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will bridge westward and join with an existing high pressure near the U.S. East Coast over the next several days,” Kottlowski said. “This setup will guide Florence on a west to northwesterly course into next week.”
The National Hurricane Center said despite Florence eventual path, large swells will begin to affect Bermuda on Friday and the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surfs and rip currents. NHC added that the risk of direct impact from the storm along the U.S. East Coast over the next week has increased but there it is is too soon to determine location, magnitude and timing of the impact.
The National Hurricane Center has not yet issued any coastal watches or warnings as of their 5 p.m. ET advisory. But Florence’s path is expected to generate potentially dangerous surf swells and rip current conditions that will begin to affect Bermuda by Friday. The National Hurricane Center also said tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic are likely to develop into tropical storms in the next several days.
CLOSE Hurricane Florence weakened to a tropical storm overnight but continues to creep closer to the United States is expected to regain strength as it nears the East Coast. USA TODAY
Florence is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the U.S. East Coast next week. (Photo: National Hurricane Center)
Florence, which weakened to a tropical storm Thursday night, is forecast to restrengthen into a major hurricane as it approaches the East Coast next week.
Where and when it might strike remains a mystery.
The storm is almost 1,600 miles from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and is still as much as a week away from a potential U.S. landfall, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
As of 5 p.m. ET Friday, Florence had winds of 65 mph and was moving to the west at 8 mph. The storm's center was 905 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
After it weakens and regains strength, it's forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane with 130-mph winds as it nears the United States.
"Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents," the hurricane center said Friday morning.
More: Track the path of Florence
It is too soon to determine what, if any, other effects Florence could have on the East Coast, the hurricane center added.
A pair of top computer models from the United States and Europe, however, indicate a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas next week, said weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue.
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said that "while it is too early to change plans, all interests in Bermuda and along the East Coast of the U.S. should closely monitor the movement of Florence over this weekend and next week."
If the storm did hit the U.S., it would be an unprecedented event: Since 1851, 33 named storms have been within 100 miles of Florence's current position, and none of those storms made U.S. landfall, said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
He added that Florence does not appear to be taking a track similar to any historical hurricanes.
The last 11 @NHC_Atlantic forecasts for #Florence from late Tue. afternoon through early Fri. morning. See the trend? pic.twitter.com/7B09oDlche — Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) September 7, 2018
Beyond Florence, two other systems are gathering strength in the Atlantic Ocean. Both were classified as tropical depressions Friday afternoon and are forecast to become named tropical storms and eventually hurricanes within the next few days, the hurricane center said. The next two names on the list are Helene and Isaac.
"With so much focus on Florence, great attention should be made for potential Helene over the coming days," said Weather Network meteorologist Erin Wenckstern. She added that a hurricane landfall is possible for the Lesser Antilles, an island chain in the Caribbean.
In the Pacific Ocean, while Tropical Storm Norman is not expected to hit Hawaii, Hurricane Olivia could hit the islands next week, potentially as a tropical storm, the hurricane center said.
Florence is one of three storms that are spinning in the Atlantic on Friday. The two red "x"s in the eastern Atlantic should be named Helene and Isaac. (Photo: National Hurricane Center)
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