It’s Ontario election day and we have everything you need to know as you head to the polls to elect a new premier.
From the big ridings, to the road, to the Premier’s office, our CityVote special starts right when polls close at 9 p.m. on CityNews.ca/CityVote, live streaming on CityNews.ca, Facebook, Twitter and Youtube. On CityNews.ca, you’ll find a live results map that updates riding-by-riding in real time.
The latest poll results show the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats are in a virtual tie. Kathleen Wynne conceded in the final week of the election campaign after 15 years of Liberal power.
We will bring you live results and reaction, including analysis from 680 NEWS political specialist John Stall.
It could be a stressful night, so we’ll make it a little sweeter for you with cupcakes. We’ll be icing 124 cupcakes in party colours as seats are won, and you can watch the live-stream of it on CityNews.ca/CityVote.
At 10 p.m., CityNews will be live from all the candidates’ election night parties and from key ridings on, what is sure to be, a historic night.
But the election doesn’t stop in the Toronto. CityNews will have look at hot ridings in the GTA and beyond, including Ottawa Centre, Simcoe North, Ajax and Oshawa.
The twists and turns of Ontario's election campaign have made it impossible to predict the outcome of Thursday's vote, with several possible scenarios in play.
The Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats are virtually tied in recent polls, while the governing Liberals, by Premier Kathleen Wynne's own admission, are not a contender for government. The Canadian Press spoke to experts about what could unfold.
How does power change hands after an election?
The Crown, represented provincially by the lieutenant-governor, has the power to invite someone to be premier.
Until a new premier is sworn in, Wynne and her most recent cabinet are still technically in charge of the province and have the power to act as they did before in the event of an emergency.
What needs to happen for a majority?
With 124 seats up for grabs, the victorious party would need to secure 63 to form a majority — a government that could not be outnumbered and outvoted by other parties.
If either the Tories or the NDP reach this threshold Thursday, then the outcome is fairly straightforward — Doug Ford or Andrea Horwath respectively will likely be asked to become premier.
In either case, Dalhousie University's School of Public Policy Interim Director Lori Turnbull says a steep learning curve lies ahead.
The Liberals have held power since 2003, and Turnbull said either party taking over will face "growing pains" while they try to shake up the way business has been conducted.
Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne, centre, Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford, left, and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath take part in the Ontario Leaders debate in Toronto on May 7, 2018.
Ford, as a relative political neophyte, would have to familiarize himself with parliamentary processes and deepen his ties to the formal party establishment, along with the typical transitional business of setting up staff and appointing a cabinet. Surrounding himself with the experienced MPPs who will likely be at his disposal would make sense, but may not play well to voters who may have elected him based on his self-professed status as an outsider, Turnbull said.
Cabinet appointments would be a concern for Horwath as well, Turnbull said, noting that the NDP leader is well-versed in the business of the provincial legislature after nine years at the party helm but would be followed into power by a slate of less experienced colleagues.
What happens with a minority government?
If the party with the greatest plurality of seats still has fewer than 63, then the province is dealing with a minority government. Turnbull and Queen's University political science instructor Tim Abray said parties will have to start talking to each other and creating either formal or informal alliances to ensure legislative business can move ahead.
This has taken creative forms in the past, Abray said, citing the 1985 election in which the Progressive Conservatives obtained the highest number of seats but lost the confidence of the house within weeks.
At that time, David Peterson's Liberals formed an accord with the NDP led by Bob Rae. The two parties agreed the Liberals would form government for two years on condition that they implement some NDP policy priorities.
What might happen this time?
Barring a New Democrat majority, Turnbull believes the onus will be on the NDP to form alliances regardless of whether they hold power or form the opposition. That pressure will increase depending on exactly how much of an edge the governing party holds in terms of seats.
Turnbull believes the NDP will have an easier time finding allies among the ranks of other legislators than the Tories. Those alliances, however, don't necessarily have to involve a formal coalition.
"If I were (Horwath) I would be as informal and low-key about is as possible," Turnbull said. "Basically get their good faith agreement to be on board and leave it at that."
What kind of alliances might form?
Turnbull speculates that if Liberals fail to achieve the eight seats required to hang on to official party status, then Horwath may find some MPPs in search of a home who could entertain the notion of crossing the floor and joining the NDP fold.
That would likely not be an option for Mike Schreiner, leader of the Ontario Green Party, who appears poised to secure a seat in the legislature for the first time and would be unlikely to operate under a different banner. Nonetheless Schreiner could help control the balance of power.
Abray said it's impossible to predict what sorts of partnerships could develop, noting parties are sometimes willing to go to extraordinary lengths to keep a minority government afloat. He also emphasized that parliament, at the end of the day, is comprised of individuals who may feel more free to eschew party discipline and act for themselves in a minority scenario.
What's the potential Wynne factor?
Philippe Lagasse, international relations professor and constitutional scholar at Carleton University, said one of the minority scenarios that could play out could involve Wynne exercising her remaining rights as premier.
"She may want to not resign immediately," he said. "Maybe indicate she will resign but come up with some agreement ... that can be presented to the lieutenant-governor upon her resignation."
That agreement would likely involve a recommendation that whichever party leader she's agreed to work with would form government, Lagasse said.
He said the lieutenant-governor would likely accept such a proposal, as it would have a reasonable chance of retaining the confidence of the house. Such an arrangement could apply even if Wynne loses her seat, but is an extreme scenario that would likely only apply in the event of a particularly tight race in which the Liberals hold the balance of power.
What happens if a party leader won't accept election results?
Anyone wishing to challenge an election result must go before the Ontario Superior Court of Justice. The Elections Act states that either candidates or qualified voters can launch such an action.
× Expand Andrea Horwath has spearheaded an efficient campaign to go along with a resurgence in traditional bases of support in Toronto.
It’s been a volatile Ontario Election 2018. And ahead of today's vote there are still many moving parts – not the least of which are daily questions about PC leader Doug Ford’s fitness to be premier. Despite a campaign marked by chaos, however, most polls suggest the election is still Ford’s to lose.
Those polls also suggest that the person best positioned to stop Ford is NDP leader Andrea Horwath.
It’s been an impressive road back from political purgatory for the NDP leader after the electoral rebuke of 2014. She has spearheaded an efficient campaign, but the party’s rise would not have been possible without the foundation built in recent years in southwestern Ontario and the 905 to go along with the resurgence in traditional bases of support in Toronto.
But the reality in local races on the ground is still touch and go. Which is to say that the NDP would require a massive Orange wave to deny Ford, and the poll numbers suggest that’s not in the cards.
Enter Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne. Her concession in a speech last Saturday that she will not be re-elected premier was widely read as an admission of defeat. It may also end up going down as one of the craftiest moves in the campaign. Wynne says it was time for her “to get out of the way” so as not to let her unpopularity with voters affect candidates in local races.
When you take a look at the current electoral map of Toronto and the 905, where 50 of the 124 ridings up for grabs will be decided, it’s clear what Wynne was getting at.
Consider that of the 22 ridings contested in Toronto in 2014, 19 were won by the Liberals. Of those, eight were won by more than 10,000 votes, with the PCs finishing second in almost all of those races.
It’s a similar scenario in the 905, where the Libs won 14 of 18 races in 2014. Of those, seven were by more than 10,000 votes. Again the PCs finished second in most of those. The NDP have made inroads in the 905, but outside of four ridings (Oshawa, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North), it’s a two-horse race between Libs and PCs.
Redistribution has created three new ridings in Toronto and seven in the 905, which means the results of 2014 can’t be overlaid completely on the electoral map of 2018. But it’s also true that incumbency has its advantages. Incumbents won more than 80 per cent of election races in 2014, which means voting strategically to beat Ford.
In Davenport (Marit Stiles), Parkdale-High Park (Bhutila Karpoche), Toronto-Danforth (Peter Tabuns) and Beaches-East York (Arthur Potts), the choice is between the Libs and NDP, with little chance of Tories sneaking up the middle. But there are two notable exceptions to that rule – Toronto Centre and Toronto-St. Paul’s, where the Libs won with 60 per cent of the vote in 2014. However, NDP’s Suze Morrison and Liberal Jess Spindler are the best bets to win.
In University-Rosedale, where Liberal Jo-Ann Davis and NDP Jessica Bell are in a tight race with the PCs’ Gillian Smith, it’s not so clear cut. But Bell is likely the strategic choice. In Spadina-Fort York it’s the NDP’s Chris Glover.
However, outside the core it’s mostly a PC versus Liberal dynamic.
In Scarborough, the Libs took all five seats in 2014 by huge margins, but in Scarborough-Agincourt, Liberal incumbent Soo Wong, who won by some 5,000 votes, is vulnerable to the PCs. In Scarborough North, where the PCs currently hold their only seat in Toronto with Raymond Cho (he won it in a by-election in 2016), it’s Liberal Chin Lee who has the best shot. The NDP have targeted Scarborough-Centre (Zeyd Bismilla), where Liberal incumbent Brad Duguid, who resigned his seat, won by almost 12,000 votes in 2014. Go for NDP. Another winnable seat for the NDP is Doly Begum in Scarborough Southwest, where longtime incumbent Lorenzo Berardinetti has failed to distinguish himself.
Likewise in North York, save for Humber-River-Black Creek (Tom Rakocevic) and York South-Weston (Faisal Hassan), where the NDP are running hard. Elsewhere in the burb we like former Toronto councillor Shelley Carroll in Don Valley North, Mike Colle, who is in tough against Robin Martin in Eglinton-Lawrence, Kathleen Wynne in Don Valley West, Michael Coteau in Don Valley East and Roman Estaris in York Centre, where the PCs seem to have the upper hand.
But in Ford’s backyard in Etobicoke North, the Liberal-versus-PC script has been flipped. There, the NDP finished ahead of the PCs in 2014, and candidate Mahamud Amin is reportedly running neck and neck with the PC leader. A win for the NDP here would put a fitting exclamation point on a PC defeat in Ontario.
For more intelligence on how to vote, read our riding profiles here.
news@nowtoronto.com | @nowtoronto
Mike McDonald is a senior associate with Pollara Strategic Insights and chief strategy officer for Kirk & Co. He served as chief of staff to former B.C. premier Christy Clark.
Ontario voters will render their verdict on Thursday. The Liberals have governed since 2003, but it’s now clear that it’s not a matter of if there’s change but, rather, what kind of change – either Doug Ford’s PCs or Andrea Horwath’s NDP.
The outcome will be a major tone-setter for national politics and influence the makeup of the issues heading into the 2019 federal election, not to mention the impact it would have on one of the largest subnational economies in the world.
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Of course, only those who actually vote get to decide. There are more than 10 million eligible voters, but there have never before been more than five million voters in an Ontario provincial election. Millions of Ontario residents will sit it out, leaving the participants to decide.
It also matters where they vote. Government is decided by the makeup of 124 seats, not a beauty contest of overall votes.
The most recent B.C., Alberta and federal elections provide insight into what could happen in Ontario.
Both Stephen Harper and Christy Clark may have been satisfied if they were told in advance of their recent re-election bids that they would retain the same number of votes as the previous election – and they actually did. However, in both cases, the voter pool expanded while theirs stood still. Basic math tells us that if the number of voters increases, your party’s market share will decrease if it does not grow.
In the 2015 federal election, 6.5 million Ontario residents cast a vote – far higher than a typical Ontario election. Will provincial voter turnout continue to lag significantly behind federal turnout, or will hordes of new voters bust down the doors and alter market share? Advance turnout is up 18 per cent over 2014.
Older voters have disproportionate influence because they are more likely to vote. In low-turnout elections, their influence is even greater. In B.C.’s 2017 election, fewer than 30 per cent of eligible voters under the age of 24 voted, compared with almost 70 per cent of those aged 65 to 74.
During the course of the election campaign, the NDP have made gains across the board, and they are also doing better with older voters. If this remains the case, they will have gone great lengths in neutralizing a key support base for Doug Ford’s PCs. However, if the PCs prevail with older voters, the NDP will need to counteract this disadvantage by increasing turnout among younger voters. They would need to dilute the PC’s market share by motivating non-voters to vote.
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Our firm has tracked the enthusiasm each party’s supporters has for their voting preference. Doug Ford’s supporters are the most fired up relative to the Liberals and the NDP. They are also more likely to say they will “definitely” vote. This is a good sign for the PCs. The danger is if Liberal voters’ enthusiasm to stop Doug Ford leads them to switch to the NDP. Now that Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne has conceded the election, has she motivated Liberal voters to vote NDP to stop Mr. Ford?
So far, NDP backroom strategists have likely been high-fiving each other based on the first three and a half weeks of the campaign. They’ve seen this before – in Alberta in 2015. The narrative of the campaign has followed a similar course – once again, we have a discredited incumbent government and an official opposition, with new leadership, working in real-time to shape a winning coalition. Enter Andrea Horwath as Rachel Notley, looking to come from third to first.
Like Ms. Notley in 2015, Ms. Horwath will have a disadvantage in converting votes to seats. Had Alberta 2015 been a close race in terms of popular vote, it is unlikely the NDP would have been able to form a government with even a five-point win in the popular vote. Its votes were concentrated in Edmonton. Ms. Notley needed to win big on popular vote and, guess what, she did. She won by 12 points and, with it, a majority.
In Ontario, even if Ms. Horwath was leading the polls, would she be leading in seats? The modelling of who wins what seats based on the popular vote indicates that Doug Ford’s PCs are much more efficient in terms of how their votes are spread across the province. The NDP could blunt the PC age advantage, blunt the PC voters’ enthusiasm and could win the popular vote and still lose the election. To form government, the NDP will need to wallop the PCs.
Who votes, and where they vote, will decide who governs Ontario. It is hardly a groundbreaking theory, but one that is commonly forgotten. Will Ontario voters stay on the couch or will they take a more active role in setting the course for their province and, indeed, the country in the year ahead?
