(CNN) North Korea is "livening up the mood" with regards to its talk on denuclearization, but doing very little beyond that, say experts who've long watched the isolated regime wrestle with its nuclear ambitions and international censure.
And further, they say, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is positioning himself as an amenable leader open to negotiation as he readies for Friday's summit with South Korea and a forthcoming historic meeting with US President Donald Trump.
On Saturday Kim Jong Un asserted that his regime no longer needed to test its weapons capabilities and that it would be abandoning a test site in the north that had been the location of several nuclear tests.
"It's just propaganda, the statements have ambiguous meanings," said Chang-Hoon Shin, senior research fellow with the Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy. He said the test site at Punggye-ri in North Hamyong province would more likely be shut down because of the environmental impact sustained to the mountains there. When North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test last September deep underground, the explosion created a magnitude 6.3 tremor
"We can say the Punggye-ri site was of no use anymore, so I think North Korea can make use of that situation by declaring they will shut down past sites, but it doesn't have any meaning," Shin told CNN.
"It can liven up the mood and make it favorable for the talks, but I don't think it's enough because it's not technically a move towards denuclearization at all."
If North Korea was really serious, Shin said, it would re-apply to the Non-Proliferation Treaty or accede to international norms under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty . And there's been no indication it wants to do that.
No 'popping champagne bottles' yet
The announcement has done little more than solidify prospects the Trump-Kim summit will go ahead, said Catherine Dill, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
"I think that this certainly improves the odds for a Trump-Kim summit actually occurring, but it may complicate the longer term picture," Dill told CNN.
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"A careful reading of the announcement shows that North Korea is walking a fine line in exactly what they are conceding at this point: an end to testing does not automatically result in the verifiable dismantlement of the nuclear and missile programs. Verification of testing alone would be quite complex, and the verification of dismantlement would take years of careful negotiation and implementation," she said.
"I think that while this particular concession by North Korea appeals to Trump's vanity, it has improved dramatically the prospects for the summit," she added.
Abraham Denmark, director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center, agreed.
"This is posturing, it's still not committing North Korea to anything. They actually committed to no testing before -- as recently as 2012 -- and that lasted about a week. So it's a good thing, but I'm not popping any champagne bottles at this point," he told CNN.
In 2012, the North Korean regime agreed to halt its nuclear testing in exchange for food aid from the United States, the so-called Leap Day agreement. But the deal fell apart after North Korea launched a rocket into orbit several months after the deal was signed. The North Koreans said the rocket was sending a satellite into orbit, but the US, South Korea and Japan claimed that was a cover for a long-range ballistic missile test.
Lack of concrete measures
If North Korea is so confident in its weapons capacity and wants to join the nuclear club, then it should abide by conventions adhered to by other nuclear states, Shin notes.
"In order not to be deceived by North Korea again, concrete measures and gestures must be shown by Pyongyang," he told CNN. "Talking of denuclearization gives a certain illusion, but there must be certain measures like returning to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. I argue that returning to those organizations are the minimum standard for verifying their real intention or will of denuclearizing."
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North Korea pulled out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in January 2003, declaring at the time that it pledged to limit its nuclear activities to "peaceful purposes." It had announced in 1993 that it would withdraw from the treaty then, but suspended the decision to enter into talks with the US.
By choosing to focus on direct talks with the US, Shin says North Korea is bypassing the scrutiny and verification process it would have to accept under UN auspices.
"If you look at the relevant UN Security Council resolutions , the resolutions always ask North Korea to return to the IAEA and the NPT, so North Korea knows very well, it's trying to avoid such situations, it wants to discuss denuclearization directly with the US rather than in the context of international norms," Shin said.
"If North Korea can lift US sanctions first, then the UN sanctions aren't as significant."
A deal for a deal's sake
The announcement follows diplomatic outreach including a visit by Kim to Beijing, his first foreign visit as leader, to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping . In a comment Saturday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang welcomed the latest developments. "Achieving denuclearization and sustainable peace in the region is in the interest of people on the peninsula and in the region, and meet the shared expectation of the international community," said Kang.
"We hope all relevant parties will move in the same direction and take concrete actions to work toward sustainable peace and common development in the region. China will continue to play a positive role to this end."
Meanwhile, President Trump responded positively to the news out of Pyongyang, tweeting about it twice on Friday night . The news that North Korea was suspending its tests and closing down a site, he said, was "very good news for North Korea and the World - big progress! Look forward to our Summit."
But at least one American ally in the region was circumspect.
"The only thing that is important is whether or not it will lead to the completely verified and irreversible abolition of nuclear and missiles," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters. "We would like to keep a close eye on it."
His defense minister was even more direct, calling the announcement "insufficient."
Speaking in Washington, DC, Itsunori Onodera told reporters that the move was "not satisfactory" for Japan "as the disposal of middle and short-range missile and of nuclear weapons was not mentioned."
He added that Japan will continue its policy of "maximum pressure" until "North Korea gives up WMDs [weapons of mass destruction] and nuclear missiles completely."
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Japan's fear is that, in a bid to get a win, Trump will be satisfied with a commitment from North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, but not give up its short and medium-range weapons that are able to target Japan.
"So far, White House officials have been saying that the US is not going to give anything until North Korea completely denuclearizes, it's setting a very hard line on negotiations," said Denmark.
"But as we've seen in the past the President doesn't necessarily follow through on the advice of his people and so it's impossible to know what's going to happen when he gets in a room and sits down with Kim. Even if they come to an agreement, the president has demonstrated a penchant in his life of pulling out of agreements so sticking to an agreement is going to be very difficult," he said.
North Korea has said it will end its tests of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, and shut down its nuclear test site, in a dramatic development ahead of a much-anticipated meeting between its leader, Kim Jong-un, and Donald Trump.
The suspensions went into immediate effect on Saturday, according to state-run KCNA news agency.
The US president greeted the news in a tweet: “This is very good news for North Korea and the World – big progress!”
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) North Korea has agreed to suspend all Nuclear Tests and close up a major test site. This is very good news for North Korea and the World - big progress! Look forward to our Summit.
The British Foreign Office described the announcement as a positive step. “We hope this indicates an effort to negotiate in good faith,” a spokesperson said.
The European Union’s foreign affairs chief, Federica Mogherini, said the move was part of a process that must lead to the country’s “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation”.
The news comes less than a week before Kim meets the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, for a summit in the demilitarised zone that divides the peninsula.
South Korea’s presidential office welcomed the announcement as “meaningful progress” towards denuclearisation. “It will create a very positive environment for the success of the upcoming inter-Korean and North-US summits,” said.
The move goes some way towards meeting US demands for denuclearisation, as Pyongyang and Washington work towards agreement on when and where Kim will meet Trump for historic talks that barely seemed possible just a few months ago.
KCNA quoted Kim as saying that North Korea should focus on economic development now that it had achieved its aim of becoming a nuclear state. “The whole party and the whole nation should now focus on the development of the socialist economy,” he was quoted as saying. “This is the party’s new strategic policy line.”
He added: “A fresh climate of detente and peace is being created on the Korean peninsula and the region, and dramatic changes are being made in the international political landscape.”
The decision to suspend nuclear tests and missile launches came at a plenary meeting of the ruling party’s central committee, which met on Friday.
Kim told the meeting that the North’s development of nuclear weapons should be seen as a “great victory”.
“As the weaponisation of nuclear weapons has been verified, it is not necessary for us to conduct any more nuclear tests or test launches of mid- and long-range missiles or ICBMs. The northern nuclear test site has completed its mission,” he added, according to KCNA.
North Korea has conducted all six of its nuclear tests at Punggye-ri test site in the country’s north-east. It tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006, while its last and most powerful test came last September.
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Those tests, plus a string of missile launches ordered by Kim throughout 2017, at one point appeared to be taking the peninsula to the brink of conflict.
Some analysts greeted the North’s move with caution, noting that the regime had reneged on previous nuclear deals and that Saturday’s announcement did not mention shorter-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Japan and South Korea.
Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, cautiously welcomed North Korea’s pledge. “We welcome it as a forward-looking move … but an important thing is whether the move will lead to the complete abandonment of missile and nuclear developments in a verifiable and irreversible manner,” Abe said. “We want to watch it closely.”
The Japanese defence minister, Itsunori Onodera, said he and the US defence secretary, Jim Mattis, had agreed during talks in Washington that any deal must include weapons with which North Korea could continue to threaten its neighbours. “This is not the time for Japan, the United States and the international community to ease pressure” on North Korea, Onodera said.
Japan’s deputy prime minister and finance minister, Taro Aso, added a note of scepticism. “[North Korea] has made a lot of promises and we paid money on the condition that they will give up [nuclear] experiment sites, but they continued,” Aso said in Washington.
Catherine Dill, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said a promise to end missile and nuclear tests “does not equate to the dismantlement of the nuclear and missile programmes”.
She added: “Perhaps this signals that North Korea is confident enough in its nuclear and missile programmes to concede testing while stringing along the prospect of verifiable dismantlement for years past Trump’s presidency.”
Scott LaFoy, a Washington-based satellite imagery analyst focusing on ballistic missile and space technologies, said Kim’s comments should be seen as “the first part of a negotiation. It can be easily undone, but could also turn into the foundation of a deal. It shouldn’t be read as a concrete promise, it should be seen as the start of a complex discussion.
The North’s quest to develop a deterrent against what it has long described as US hostility resulted in an extraordinary exchange of insults between Kim and Trump last September, and frequent warnings from Washington that it would not rule out military action to end Kim’s nuclear ambitions.
Saturday’s announcement came the day after a hotline between Kim and the South Korean president went live. It connects Moon’s desk at the presidential Blue House with North Korea’s state affairs commission, which is headed by Kim, Yonhap news agency said.
Earlier this week Moon, a liberal whose election in May raised hopes of an inter-Korea detente, said that Pyongyang had expressed a desire for the “complete denuclearisation” of the Korean peninsula without attaching preconditions such as the withdrawal of US troops.
The two countries are due to hold a summit next Friday on the southern side of the demilitarised zone.
The meeting is to be followed in May or June by a meeting between Kim and Trump. The US president on Wednesday pledged to meet Kim “in the coming weeks” but said he was prepared to walk away if the talks were not fruitful.
Image copyright AFP Image caption Kim Jong-un says the North has achieved nuclear "weaponisation"
North Korea's announcement that it is halting nuclear and missile tests has received a broad international welcome.
Leader Kim Jong-un said further tests were not needed, as the North had demonstrated it had nuclear weapons.
Donald Trump described the move as "good news" for the world, and South Korea said it was meaningful progress.
The EU said it was "positive", but called for complete denuclearisation. North Korea is preparing for historic summits with South Korea and the US.
Early on Saturday Kim Jong-un said: "From 21 April, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles."
Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption The news was announced on North Korean state TV
The surprise announcement, relayed by the country's KCNA news agency, also said a test site would be shut down.
Welcoming it on Twitter, Mr Trump said he was looking forward to a face-to-face meeting with Mr Kim in June.
Skip Twitter post by @realDonaldTrump North Korea has agreed to suspend all Nuclear Tests and close up a major test site. This is very good news for North Korea and the World - big progress! Look forward to our Summit. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 20, 2018 Report
Mr Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in are due to meet next week for the first inter-Korean summit in over a decade.
Mr Moon's office said the North's decision would "contribute to creating a very positive environment for the success of the upcoming South-North summit and North-United States summit."
European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said it was a "long sought-after step" that should lead to "verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation".
The call was echoed by the UK. The statement from the British government added: "We hope this indicates an effort to negotiate in good faith."
The US and its allies have been pushing Pyongyang to abandon nuclear weapons.
China, North Korea's main backer, said it believed the move would "help ameliorate the situation on the peninsula".
Russia's foreign ministry also welcomed it, but called on the US and South Korea to reduce their military activity in the region.
Why has Pyongyang halted tests?
In his statement, Mr Kim said it was no longer necessary to conduct missile tests because "nuclear weaponisation" had been achieved.
This echoes a previous statement made during a New Year address in which Mr Kim declared his nuclear and ballistic missile programmes completed.
Although Pyongyang said it would abolish its nuclear test site, there is no indication it is planning to get rid of its existing weapons.
The decision to halt missile tests is also aimed at pursuing economic growth, according to KCNA. Mr Kim reportedly pledged to "concentrate all efforts" on developing a socialist economy during Friday's meeting.
Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption How could war with North Korea unfold?
The summit is the prize
By Ankit Panda, senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists
These concessions from North Korea have come before the two anticipated summits with the US and South Korea.
One may wonder why Mr Kim should give up so much in advance instead of hanging on to a nuclear test-ban and an ICBM moratorium as aces up his sleeve.
The answer is simple: a summit with a US president is enough of a prize in itself. For Mr Kim, it's something that neither his grandfather nor his father could attain.
What North Korea loses by demolishing its nuclear test site and submitting to a unilateral moratorium on ICBM launches is entirely tolerable compared with what Mr Kim gains by sitting alongside President Trump.
Read Ankit Panda's full analysis here
Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption How to talk to North Korea
Major North Korean missile tests
North Korea has carried out numerous missile tests. Some of these exploded shortly after launch, but others travelled for hundreds of miles before landing in the sea. Here are some of the major tests reported last year alone:
12 February 2017 - A medium-range ballistic missile launched from Banghyon air base near the west coast. It flew east towards the Sea of Japan for about 500km.
4 July 2017 - Pyongyang claimed to have successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time. Officials said it reached an altitude of 2,802km and flew for 39 minutes.
29 August 2017 - North Korea fired what is thought to be its first nuclear-weapon capable ballistic missile over Japan. It was launched from near Pyongyang and reached a height of about 550km.
15 September 2017 - A ballistic missile was fired across Japan for the second time and landed in the sea off Hokkaido. It reached an altitude of about 770km and travelled 3,700km.
29 November 2017 - North Korea said it had successfully tested a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the whole of the continental US. The Hwasong-15 missile landed in Japanese waters but flew higher than any other missile the North had previously tested.
Image copyright Getty Images
Kim Jong-un's announcement that North Korea is to halt nuclear and missile tests immediately comes as he prepares for two major diplomatic events. Analyst Ankit Panda asks what the North Korean leader hopes to gain with his latest move.
North Korea's declaration will no doubt lead to effusive headlines touting an end to nuclear and long-range missile testing, but a look at the country's historical record and the context of its nuclear and missiles programme suggests that we might temper our expectations.
First, regarding nuclear testing, the statement released on Saturday makes clear that the reason Kim Jong-un is submitting voluntarily to a testing freeze and to the closing of the Punggye-ri nuclear testing site - the scene of all six of North Korea's nuclear tests since 2006 - is because he feels that his country has mastered the design of nuclear weapons.
Although difficult to verify, this claim is not obviously an exaggeration or unbelievable.
Consider that India and Pakistan, by 1998, had each conducted six nuclear tests and are now counted among the pantheon of nuclear weapons possessors, without conducting further tests.
North Korea, with an additional eight years of access to knowledge available in open source material concerning nuclear weapons design, can feel similarly comfortable with its six nuclear tests.
'City-busting yields'
On a more granular level, North Korea's fifth and sixth nuclear tests - in September 2016 and 2017 respectively - marked important benchmarks. The September 2016 test, according to North Korean state media, involved a standardized and compact nuclear device, one that could be mounted on any of its various short, medium, intermediate, and intercontinental-range missiles (ICBMs).
Image copyright KCNA via REUTERS Image caption Kim Jong-un has taken a close personal interest in the North Korean missile programme
The expected yield - or explosive power - of those weapons might be of the order of two-to-three times the weapon that the United States used against Nagasaki in the final days of the World War Two - but that's quite powerful enough for North Korea's purposes.
More seriously, North Korea's most recent nuclear test demonstrated that it had the capability to generate seriously powerful nuclear yields.
While independent experts and various national intelligence agencies haven't reached a consensus on whether North Korea had truly mastered a thermonuclear bomb design, as it claimed to have done, the seismic data recorded on 3 September 2017 gave the world enough information to conclude that North Korea had a nuclear device capable of "city-busting" explosive yields.
The bottom line is that just as Kim Jong-un's recent trip to Beijing was a show of strength - a signal that he felt comfortable enough in his consolidated domestic power to leave North Korea - so too is the declaration of a nuclear test ban a sign that he feels renewed confidence.
Limited costs to halting missile tests
Regarding his missiles, Kim has said that he will no longer test ICBMs.
On the one hand, that's surprising.
North Korea has conducted just three tests in total of missiles that could deliver nuclear weapons to the contiguous United States. None of these tests have involved a missile flying on a trajectory similar to what might be necessary for a nuclear strike, leaving further flight-testing something of a necessity for North Korea to become sufficiently confident in its ability to strike the US homeland.
But North Korea may have other plans. For instance, while it has mastered most of what is necessary on a technical level to threaten the United States, its missile forces continue to be limited by a small number of launchers. Currently, North Korea has probably only six launch vehicles for its ICBMs.
Even though Kim Jong-un, during his 2018 New Year's address, declared his nuclear forces "complete," there is good reason to believe that he would want to increase his ICBM launchers and even work on components of North Korea's nuclear command and control systems.
Image copyright Reuters Image caption North Korea may now want to concentrate on developing launch vehicles, not missiles themselves
Tactically, then, submitting to a self-imposed ICBM flight-testing ban would have limited costs.
Easy to break ban
Ultimately, these test bans are restricted in their extent.
The nuclear test ban could be made credible by a bona fide gesture at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site. North Korea, for instance, could demolish its test tunnels; the statement released on Saturday notes only that the site will be "dismantled".
But as long as North Korea hangs on to its missiles, it can break its self-imposed ban with little warning. In 1999, North Korea submitted to a missile testing moratorium, but that eventually broke down in 2006, a few years after the collapse of the 1994 Agreed Framework.
Beyond the bans, Mr Kim used the latest Central Committee meeting to tout the success of his fundamental national strategic project, which is summarized in what he has called the byungjin line. This concept refers to the simultaneous development of a powerful state nuclear force alongside a more prosperous economy.
On Saturday, Kim Jng-un clearly indicated that with the cessation of nuclear testing, he will "concentrate all the efforts on building a powerful socialist economy and markedly improving the standard of people's living."
That should be taken seriously. North Korea will seek relief from international sanctions at the forthcoming summits to realise this objective.
The summit is the prize
The concessions from North Korea have come before the two anticipated summits with the United States and South Korea.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Kim comes just months after the pair exchanged deeply personal insults
One may wonder why Mr Kim should give up so much in advance instead of hanging on to a nuclear test-ban and an ICBM moratorium as aces up his sleeve to give up when he meets US President Donald Trump.
The answer is simple: a summit with a US president is enough of a prize in itself. For Mr Kim, it's something that neither his grandfather nor his father could attain.
In the end, what North Korea loses by demolishing its nuclear test site and submitting to a unilateral moratorium on ICBM launches is entirely tolerable compared to what Mr Kim gains by sitting alongside President Trump.
Reading KCNA's announcements on Saturday, there is also absolutely no hint of the "denuclearization" intent that South Korean officials have been eager to tout on North Korea's behalf.
On the contrary, North Korea's announcement sounds like the declamations of a nuclear weapons state - one that has no intention of giving up those weapons which give the country its ultimate guarantee of survival.
Even though President Trump has lauded Mr Kim's move as "big progress," the sooner he recognises Kim's ultimate objectives, the better.
Ankit Panda is an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists and a senior editor at The Diplomat.
