The Miami Heat's playoff run came to an end on Tuesday night in a 104-91 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 5. While there was much celebration for the Sixers, the Heat are left to ponder their season and the summer that looms ahead.
A key part of the Heat's offseason and their next moves will be shaped by Dwyane Wade's decision, too. The veteran guard wrapped up his 15th season in the NBA and, after Game 5, was not saying much about whether or not he will play a 16th season come 2018-19.
"That's not my focus," he told reporters on Tuesday. "Fresh off this NBA season, my 15th year, I sit back and think about that. Then I dive and throw myself into my family. They're next on my bucket list, making sure I'm there for them. And when it comes to the basketball side of it, which is a long time away from now, then I'll think about that."
"I love Philly, but ain't gonna be no breaking news here in Philly. I'm sorry. I appreciate [the concern], but let me worry about that later."
Wade once again was in a reserve role in Game 5, logging 11 points (on 4-for-15 shooting), five rebounds and five assists in 30 minutes. It was the 177th playoff game in Wade's career, which ranks 19th all-time in NBA history.
In an interview with Miami Heat team broadcaster Eric Reed after Game 5, Wade was also not saying much about what he plans to do next.
Reed: "I remember visiting with you in the Cleveland locker room earlier this season and you said, for the first time in your life, you weren't sure about next season. I know you're not going to make any decisions now, but, what thoughts do you have about your future?"
Wade: "I don't know. I said that at that time because it's true. I don't know going into the summer of my 15th year, turning 37 next year, there's a lot of variables that go into it. You sit down and you make the best decision for you and your family."
Additionally, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra wasn't in much of a mood to address the topic, either, after Game 5.
''You're going to make me emotional if we start to think about that or talk about that right now,'' Spoelstra said.
.@MiamiHEAT shooting guard Dwyane Wade talks about the emotions he has of the season ending; Wade also addresses his future of playing basketball. #HEATCulturepic.twitter.com/8CwUWZUbDc — FOX Sports Florida (@FOXSportsFL) April 25, 2018
Wade's wife, Gabrielle Union, took to social media to address the topic of her husband's future. On Twitter, she posted:
"I hope this isnt the end, but my God... @DwyaneWade has a career most people dream of. He is a damn legend. An icon. And hes cute #HeatNation"
When Dwyane Wade left the Miami Heat for the Chicago Bulls as a free agent back in the summer of 2016, the lines of communication between Wade and the front office were fractured. Yet even in leaving South Florida, Wade always felt a kinship to the franchise and said in 2016 "I'll always be a Heat."
The Heat reacquired Wade at the trade deadline this season as the Cleveland Cavaliers underwent a midseason roster overhaul. Shortly after his return to the Heat, Wade told ESPN he wanted to be with the team 'forever' and did not want a farewell tour whenever he does decide to retire.
Wade won three championships with the Heat (2006, '12, '13) and was named Finals MVP in 2006. He has played 876 games for Miami, and is the team's all-time leader in points (20,473), assists (5,009), steals (1,433), field goals made (7,426) and attempted (15,267) and free throws made (5,226) and attempted (6,815). Additionally, he is second only to Hall of Famer Alonzo Mourning in blocked shots (774) in Heat history.
To Wade, a chance to return to Miami and play with the Heat again made this season standout.
"It meant a lot. I was very thankful to the guys here that accepted me with open arms the way that they did," Wade told Reed after Game 5. "I was only here for 20 games -- plus the playoffs -- but it felt like I was here longer. I feel like I know those guys and it's like family. I was glad I could come back and be a part of this."
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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The Miami Heat are trying to find their way in the superstar-driven NBA without a superstar of their own.
If the plan sounds fatally flawed, that's because a preponderance of evidence suggests it is.
This season was supposed to be a significant step forward. All key parties responsible for last year's 30-11 finish were retained—at a substantial cost—and that core was supplemented by a big-ticket free agent (Kelly Olynyk) and a lottery pick (Bam Adebayo).
It didn't matter, though. Miami wound up with only three more wins than last time around, finishing exactly where Vegas thought it would.
More worrisome, however, was the fact the Heat could never come within arm's reach of true elites. They went just 18-27 against .500 or better teams, the worst such mark among playoff participants.
Speaking of the postseason, the Heat were politely dispatched by the Philadelphia 76ers via the 4-1 gentleman's sweep. Two of the losses were by 20-plus points, and the lone win was keyed by 28 points from 36-year-old Dwyane Wade, who isn't sure he has another year left in him.
Miami's lack of a reliable No. 1 option was glaring, and it will get worse if Wade heeds the siren song of retirement.
The Heat appear in dire need of dramatic changes. But with at least $116.2 million already on next season's books and zero picks in the upcoming draft, creativity will be key in reshaping this roster.
Setting the Stage
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There are straitjackets with more wiggle room than the Heat have.
Of the nine players holding guaranteed contracts for next season, seven will collect salaries of $9.3 million or more. Four of them will make at least $14.6 million, only one of whom has made an All-Star Game—Goran Dragic, who debuted this season as a 31-year-old injury replacement.
"This is a roster loaded with fourth and fifth men, players who can help but not necessarily dominate..." Ira Winderman wrote for the South Florida Sun Sentinel. "And the problem is there isn't the cap space or trade enticement to land such a star. Of all the front-office riddles Pat Riley has faced, this might be the most challenging."
There's virtually no hope the Heat can make up their talent deficit internally.
Miami has two first-round picks from the last four drafts combined—Justise Winslow and Adebayo, who made a combined 44 starts this season. The former is unreliable on offense, and the latter sits third on the depth chart behind players making a combined $36.5 million next season.
A healthy Dion Waiters should help, but he's about to start his seventh NBA season and had the last two beset by ankle issues. Hassan Whiteside has only had three-plus seasons as a rotation player, but Miami showed him a declining level of trust, which brought down his value as both a building block and a trade chip.
Miami has at least four players unsigned beyond this season—franchise icons Wade and Udonis Haslem, plus Wayne Ellington and Luke Babbitt. The Heat have a team option on Jordan Mickey, while Rodney McGruder's salary is non-guaranteed.
Priority No. 1: Cutting Costs
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The first-round dismantling by the Sixers was a humbling look at the massive odds against this iteration of the Heat. It's not just that they were outexecuted by a younger, less proven squad, it's that Philly had such a noticeable talent advantage with a much cheaper roster.
The Sixers have just $67.3 million committed to next season's payroll. The Heat are paying nearly $50 million more for an inferior product.
Granted, part of that is due to the different points on the draft board these franchises have held in recent seasons. But a lot of it comes from the head-scratching contracts Miami has handed out.
Whiteside, who averaged his fewest minutes in three years, is due to make $25.4 million next season. Tyler Johnson, who has one above-average player efficiency rating in four campaigns, will cost $19.2 million. James Johnson, who backtracked in points, threes, blocks and PER, will collect $14.6 million. Another $11.1 million will go to Olynyk, who has yet to average 24 minutes through five NBA seasons.
"They have a bunch of average players you can't win big with," an NBA scout told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "...In my opinion, you have to clean house. But some of these players will be difficult to move."
Without dealing Adebayo or Richardson—arguably the two most attractive trade chips—Miami will struggle to approach equal on-court value through trades. That's actually fine. Trimming the payroll should be the focus, anyway.
If the Heat can free themselves from salary-cap prison, they still have a lot to sell to external targets. If Riley and Erik Spoelstra aren't enough, there's still South Beach, warm weather and no state income tax. Plus, there are a bunch of support players already in place, so it might only take the right whale to turn things around quickly.
But Riley and Co. can't do big-game hunting of any kind until the self-imposed financial handcuffs come off.
Priority No. 2: The Wayne Ellington Dilemma
Lynne Sladky/Associated Press
This might sound blasphemous to some members of Heat Nation given Wade's future uncertainty, but the biggest free-agency decision involves the flame-throwing Ellington. (There's not much of a decision with Wade; if he wants to play another season, it's impossible to imagine Miami saying no.)
The market should be robust for Ellington and his golden arm. The Association craves shooters, and he's objectively an elite marksman.
The 30-year-old tied for sixth overall with 227 triples (most in franchise history and most all-time by an NBA reserve), and he was one of only 20 sharpshooters to average at least two threes while hitting 39-plus percent outside.
"Wayne, especially if we have a broken play and if you don't get a good look, it's always the best option to go to Wayne because of his ability to catch and shoot," Dragic said, per Winderman.
Ellington's floor presence netted Miami an additional 4.1 points per 100 possessions with him than without. Its offensive rating plummeted from 106.4 when he played (would have been 15th) to 102.5 when he didn't (would have been 26th).
All of these numbers might paint Ellington as a no-brainer keeper. But reality isn't so cut and dry.
"Here are the Heat's choices: Re-sign Ellington this summer and pay a luxury tax (an unappealing option for a team that isn't considered a title contender); part ways with Ellington (that clearly would be damaging to this roster); or try to trade another player or players for less salary back to create room under the tax to keep Ellington," Jackson wrote.
Next season's Heat could be heavy on the wings. Barring a trade, Richardson, Winslow, Waiters and Tyler Johnson should all factor in the 2-3 rotation. And that's before the possible additions of Wade and/or McGruder.
Would that still leave room for Ellington? In a vacuum, yes. He's the best shooter on a team whose highest-paid players are attacking guards and an interior big man.
But will there be a big enough role to justify both Ellington's salary and the accompanying tax hit? Only the front office and coaching staff can answer that.
Free-Agency Targets
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Given the budget constraints, it's easier identifying Miami's needs than its potential ways of addressing them.
The Heat are woefully short of off-the-bounce scoring. This was the sixth-least efficient team on isolations, a shortcoming made all the more obvious by the amount of late-game action that ran through Wade. Sure, he's a future Hall of Famer, but he was second fiddle on last season's 41-loss Chicago Bulls and a support piece for a Cleveland Cavaliers club that required a midseason makeover.
"When your best player is a 36-year-old off the bench, that is not a sustainable business model," Greg Cote wrote for the Miami Herald. "It hits all the warm and fuzzy notes because Wade is so beloved here, but it actually is not a good sign for the Heat."
Less pressing, but potentially more obtainable, is an itch for youth and upside.
How many Heat players have a realistic chance of becoming something greater than their current form? Adebayo for sure, but does anyone else qualify? Can Waiters sustain the level he reached from January to March 2017? Does Richardson have the shot-creating chops to boost his scoring average into the high teens? Can Winslow's newfound three-point efficiency withstand a heavy volume increase?
An affirmative response to any of those inquiries seemingly requires heavy servings of optimism.
So, how can Miami find reliable bucket-getters and up-and-coming players at discounted rates? Good question. If the answer is something other than "It can't," it has to involve uncovering diamonds in the rough, which this roster would suggest is a Heat strength.
Is this the player development system that unlocks the talents that once made Mario Hezonja, Nik Stauskas and Shabazz Muhammad first-round picks? Could Seth Curry be a possible steal after having his contract year erased by a stress fracture in his left leg? Is Ian Clark flying under the radar after failing to repeat the stellar shooting rates he posted as a member of the Golden State Warriors?
Those are the kind of gambles it will take for the Heat to find undervalued players.
If Miami lets Ellington walk, it could use the mid-level exception to find a replacement. That could be the right amount to use on someone such as Joe Harris, a 26-year-old who shot 41.9 percent from three and 62.7 percent on drives for the Brooklyn Nets, or Will Barton, a do-it-all wing who can create for himself (15.7 points per game) and others (4.1 assists).
Trade Targets
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The one way for Miami to materially change its makeup is playing the trade market. The tricky aspect is the likely disconnect between which players the Heat would be comfortable moving (Whiteside and Tyler Johnson presumably top that list) and which ones trade partners would want (Adebayo, Richardson).
It seems plausible, though, that a center-starved squad could view Whiteside as a worthwhile investment. He had a league-leading statistic the previous two seasons (3.7 blocks in 2015-16, 14.1 boards in 2016-17), and he posted personal bests in per-36-minute points (19.9) and rebounds (16.3) in this one.
In January, one scout pegged Whiteside's trade value as "a first rounder and a decent player—a rotational guy—but not a lottery pick and a decent player," per Jackson. That sounds like a good enough haul for the Heat, provided the player brings salary relief.
The Milwaukee Bucks reportedly eyed Whiteside around the trade deadline, per Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler. Would the Heat bite on a package involving John Henson, Matthew Dellavedova and a 2019 first? The pick is the big prize, but Miami could save roughly $13 million over the next two seasons.
The Washington Wizards were aiming to upgrade over Marcin Gortat at the deadline, sources told ESPN's Brian Windhorst. Gortat and Jason Smith are owed nothing beyond next season (Whiteside holds a $27 million player option for 2019-20), and the Wizards could sweeten the pot with 22-year-old swingman Kelly Oubre Jr.
The Dallas Mavericks have been searching for a long-term solution at center since letting Tyson Chandler walk. If they like Whiteside, perhaps there's an offer to be built around Wesley Matthews ($18.6 million player option next season, nothing after) and a future first.
All of these deals would save Miami money and add some sort of future asset, be it a draft pick or a prospect. If none is thought to improve the current on-court product, though, is that something the 73-year-old Riley would embrace?
This will be a revealing offseason for the franchise. Maintaining the status quo is the simplest strategy, but it would be the most damaging if it locks the Heat into multiple years of mediocrity.
A summer spent thinking outside the box and focused on the future could be the only way to change that fate.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
The Process is moving on. In an ugly Game 5, the 76ers held off a late comeback attempt by the Heat to win 104-91 and eliminate Miami in the first round. The Sixers got 27 points from JJ Redick and a 19-point, 12-rebound double-double from Joel Embiid in the game as they held the Heat to under 39 percent shooting.
It was a hard-fought series, but in the end the Sixers just proved to have too much talent for the Heat. Philly will now await the winner of the Boston-Milwaukee series, which the Celtics lead 3-2.
Here's a quick recap of the series.
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers (52-30) vs. No. 6 Miami Heat (44-38)
Playoff series schedule
Season series: Tied 2-2
Last season's playoff results: The 76ers are making their first playoff appearance since 2011-12; The Heat are making their first appearance since 2015-16
SportsLine projections
According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the 76ers have an 96.8 percent chance to win the first round and a 76.0 percent chance to reach the conference finals. SportsLine will have game-by-game gambling advice for every playoff series here.
2018 NBA Playoff Bracket
