Ontarians could see six more weeks of winter after one of the country’s best-known groundhogs saw his shadow.
Officials declared a longer winter after Wiarton Willie emerged from his den just after 8 a.m.
This year was the first for the young rodent, which replaced the previous Willie, who died last September.
If you were hoping for an early spring, Wiarton Willie says think again.
The rookie rodent prognosticator — successor to the original Wiarton Willy who died in September — saw his shadow this morning and, as legend has it, that means winter is far from over.
"It's about a thousand degrees below zero up here. So six more weeks of it," sighed Janice Jackson, the mayor South Bruce Peninsula, which takes in the town of Wiarton.
"Actually, more people up here wanted a longer winter. That's because we've got fantastic snowmobile and ski trails here. So they just want to play for a little longer," Jackson told CBC's London Morning.
Willie emerged from his den at 8:07 a.m. to crowds chanting "Wake up Willie!"
Willie's first day on the job
Jackson said the new Willie has a little more spunk than his predecessor. "He's white with beautiful blue eyes and he's just a real cutey pie."
She said the annual event attracted a large crowd, including tourists from the Netherlands and Germany, as well people from across Ontario.
The Wiarton Willy festival continues Friday and Saturday at Wiarton's Bluewater Park.
"Willie has put Wiarton on the map for us. I just couldn't be more proud of our town and Willie," said Jackson.
How it all began
So how did the tradition of Groundhog Day begin? It turns out, among Canadians, it started with bears.
For a couple of years now, Western University history professor Allan MacEachern and some of his students have been going through a huge Environment Canada archival collection, and from 1840 onward they noticed a distinct lack of references to groundhogs on February 2.
Western University historian Allan MacEachern says his research shows that in Canada, bears were the first weather prognosticators. (Twitter)
"In fact, the only reference we've seen in the entire 100 year run of these observations is a single observation that mentions bears — that the bear didn't see his shadow."
That was from 1907 in Arden, a community in eastern Ontario.
MacEachern said this emanated from a long European medieval tradition in which the weather on February 2 would be a gauge for the rest of the winter. In some places it involved the observation of a fox, a marmot, a badger or a bear. When Europeans immigrated to Canada, they brought the bear lore with them.
"I don't think they caged it and put on it a podium and lifted it to their shoulders, or anything like that," said MacEachern.
And at that point, it wasn't called Groundhog Day. It was the day that simply made mention of "the shadow".
Groundhogs originated in the US
MacEachern said our current celebration of Groundhog Day appears to have been started in the 19th century United States by the Pennsylvania Dutch, and the tradition eventually caught on in Canada.
He thinks Canadians decided that groundhogs were a heck of a lot more convenient than bears.
"They were more common for one thing, because of course we tried to push out bears from populated areas. And they didn't rip your arm off and kill you."
MacEachern said what he has found in his research is that Wiarton, Ontario was the start of the groundhog story in Canada. Wiarton began holding a Groundhog Day festival in the 1950s and it was in the early 80s that Wiarton Willy "was invented."
He said Willy killed the bear and never looked back.
There's Ontario's Wiarton Willie, Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Sam, Manitoba's Merv, Alberta's Balzac Billy — and now, Van Island Violet.
Not to be outdone, the rich tradition of a groundhog predicting if spring is around the corner — or not — has now spread to B.C.
"We have a long and storied history, at least three years now trying to predict the weather with our Vancouver Island marmot," said Adam Taylor, executive director with the Marmot Recovery Foundation, tongue firmly in cheek.
Taylor says groundhogs are actually marmots. The facility where Van Island Violet, as she's known, lives, is on Mount Washington.
Staff there receive marmots from the Calgary and Toronto zoos, where they are bred. The rodents are kept over the winter and returned to the wild in the summer.
The goal is to increase the population of this endangered species. In the late 1990s, there were around 30 Vancouver Island marmots. Thanks to recovery efforts, there are now almost 200.
Same hurdle every year
Taylor says on Feb. 2, for the last three years, the same hurdle arises that makes it impossible for the prognosticating to take place.
"The marmot is hibernating, therefore it cannot see its shadow," he said.
"We have a little bit of work still to do in terms of how to interpret what they are trying to tell us."
The track record is less than impressive when it comes to the accuracy rate of predictions from the country's other, more famous, woodchucks.
Spring will arrive March 20, no matter the outcomes from this years predictions. (CBC)
The Canadian Encyclopedia says that while Groundhog Day event organizers have historically predicted a 70 to 90 per cent accuracy rate, the truth is in fact much lower — Canadian groundhog predictions were a mere 37 per cent accurate.
Yet, every year on this day we suspend disbelief, forget evidence based meteorology, and these furry little forecasters become media darlings once more.
Sensitive topic for meteorologist
It's a topic that doesn't sit well with the CBC's Johanna Wagstaffe.
"I used to love Groundhog Day before I became a broadcast meteorologist," said Wagstaffe.
"And then, it's like they get all the credit. We have to work 364 days and then they are a celebrity for one day, and all they do is look at their shadow," she said.
Wagstaffe admits the day does add some much needed levity from B.C.'s long, wild-weather winters.
"I'm happy people get a silver lining and something to hope for before turning to the accurate models," she said.
Over on Vancouver Island, Adam Taylor says despite three years of scientific setbacks, he will continue his research.
"Whether it's about giving us hope or really just celebrating an animal that we don't celebrate very often, I think it's wonderful. And if it gets people outside for just a few minutes, then that's awesome."
WIARTON -- The newest Wiarton Willie has made his first prediction -- and it’s six more weeks of winter.
A large crowd braved the frigid temperatures Friday morning to hear the pug-nosed prognosticator's first prediction after taking over for his predecessor, who died in September.
“It’s six more weeks. He was very clear and I understood him. He’s awesome. He’s a great little guy,” South Bruce Peninsula Mayor Janice Jackson said immediately following the prediction.
“I’m looking forward to see him predict the weather for another 10 or 15 years.”
The prediction marked the debut for the newest Wiarton Willie, a three-year-old groundhog that was found on a farm in Oro-Medonte a few years ago.
The Willie he replaces was 13 years old when he was found dead in his enclosure on Sept. 16, having served as the town's weather-predicting rodent for the past 11 years. Organizers said the newest rodent had lots of time to prepare for his prediction, having been the understudy of the previous Willie for a couple of years.
By the time Willie made his prediction at 8:07 a.m., the had grown considerably, despite the temperatures that hovered around the -16 C mark with the wind chill making it feel much colder.
Over the years several albino marmots have served as Wiarton Willie, who according to legend, can predict whether or not there will be an early spring or six more weeks of winter depending on whether he can see his shadow on Feb. 2.
Willie's death in 1999 made international headlines when he died just two days before his big prediction at the old age of 22. No replacement was available so festival organizers presented a stuffed groundhog in a coffin with coins over its eyes on Groundhog Day.
The festivities have been held in Wiarton since 1956.
