CLOSE Fingers crossed Punxsutawney Phil doesn't see his shadow this Groundhog Day! USA TODAY
Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, is held by the gloved hands of handler Ron Ploucha during the 129th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Feb. 2, 2015. (Photo: Gene J. Puskar, AP)
It's that time of year again when meteorologists graciously step aside to let a furry rodent make its famed weather forecast.
Punxsutawney Phil, the world's celebrity groundhog, will be coaxed from his burrow in western Pennsylvania early Friday as an anxious nation watches to find out whether we'll have an early spring or six more miserable weeks of cold and snow.
According to legend, if it's sunny and Phil sees his shadow, the scared groundhog returns to his burrow and the U.S. will endure six more weeks of winter. But if it's cloudy when the groundhog emerges on Feb. 2, the critter won't see his shadow and will leave his burrow, meaning winter will soon end and an early start to spring is coming.
More: Groundhog Day 2018 weather forecast: Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow?
According to the National Weather Service, the forecast for Friday morning in Punxsutawney, Pa., calls for cloudy skies and a chance of snow showers, but Phil is a fickle fuzzball, so who knows what he'll do?
The Climate Prediction Center, in its official forecast for February released Wednesday, calls for warmer-than-average temperatures in the western and southern U.S. but cooler-than-average temperatures across the north-central and northeastern U.S.
Unfortunately, based on past weather data, "there is no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of the analysis," according to a report released this week by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, N.C.
Flipping a coin might be as accurate as Phil. Since 1988, the groundhog was "right" 14 times and "wrong" 16 times. In other words, only 14 times did the national average temperature for the remainder of February match what would be expected based on what the groundhog predicted.
Phil was wrong last year: The fuzzy rodent saw his shadow, so there should have been six more weeks of winter. But both February and March ended up warmer than average across the nation, NOAA said. February 2017 was the second-warmest February on record.
Since 1887, the groundhog has seen his shadow 103 times, to forecast a longer winter, and not seen it 18 times, to predict an early spring. (There is no record of the prediction for 10 times in the late 19th century.)
More: Groundhog Day: 5 bizarre things you don't know about this quirky tradition
While Groundhog Day is just some mid-winter fun, climate records say that winter probably isn't over, according to NOAA. Climatologically speaking, the three coldest months of the year are December, January and February, so winter typically still has a ways to go when the groundhog comes out on Feb. 2.
Although Phil is the most famous hog, other furry forecasters include West Virginia's French Creek Freddie, Georgia's Gen. Beauregard Lee, Ohio's Buckeye Chuck, North Carolina's Sir Walter Wally, Louisiana's Cajun Groundhog, Alabama's Smith Lake Jake, Wisconsin's Jimmy and New York's Staten Island Chuck (full name: Charles G. Hogg).
Groundhog Day's origins lie in an ancient European celebration of Candlemas, which is a point midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox — the exact midpoint of astronomical winter.
Superstition has it that fair weather predicted a stormy and cold second half to winter, as noted in this Old English saying:
"If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Winter will not come again."
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Punxsutawney, PA — It’s time again for Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators and Weather Prophet Extraordinary to make his annual prediction.
As legend has it, Phil will wake from hibernation on February 2 and if he sees his shadow as he emerges from his burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If our furry friend doesn’t see his shadow, spring will arrive soon.
Beginning at 6:00 a.m. on Friday, you can watch all the festivities from Gobbler’s Knob with the Visit PA live stream right here and on the WNEP Facebook Page.
Here’s a look at what you need to know about Groundhog Day, an American tradition that is meant to predict when spring will arrive.
Facts:
February 2 is Groundhog Day.
The groundhog wakes up from hibernation on February 2.
If the groundhog sees its shadow when it emerges from its burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter.
If it does not see its shadow, spring will arrive soon.
This tradition started in Europe as Candlemas Day. Germans who settled in Pennsylvania in the 1700s brought the custom to America.
Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil is the most well-known, but more than a dozen states celebrate with their own groundhogs, such as Georgia’s Gen. Beauregard Lee and Buckeye Chuck in Ohio.
Punxsutawney Phil – in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania:
His full name is “Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary.”
February 2, 1886 – The Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper proclaims this date as Pennsylvania’s first official Groundhog Day celebration.
Phil has correctly predicted the beginning of spring 100% of the time, according to his owners. However, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the groundhog shows “no predictive skill” for the last few years.
1986 – Phil travels to Washington, D.C. to meet with President Ronald Reagan.
1993 – Columbia Pictures releases the movie, “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray. In the years following the release of the movie, crowds numbering as high as 30,000 have visited Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney.
1995 – Phil appears on the Oprah Winfrey show.
January 27, 2010 – The animal rights group PETA suggests using a robotic groundhog in place of Punxsutawney Phil.
February 2, 2010 – For the first time, fans are able to register for a text message alert of Phil’s prediction.
February 2, 2017 – Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter.
THANKS to a much-loved 1993 film starring Bill Murray, Groundhog Day is often used to reference an unpleasant situation that seems to repeat itself over and over again.
But the true meaning of Groundhog Day is something completely different and it's actually a tradition which dates back over 200 years. Here's all you need to know...
Reuters Groundhog Day is a traditional holiday celebrated on February 2 every year
When is Groundhog Day this year, what does it mean and where does it come from?
Groundhog Day is a traditional holiday celebrated on February 2 every year.
According to folklore, if the weather is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on February 2, then spring will come early that year.
If it is sunny, the groundhog will see its shadow and head back inside - and winter will continue for another six weeks.
How is Groundhog Day celebrated and where is Punxsutawney?
The tradition of Groundhog Day began as a custom among the German community in the US state of Pennsylvania in 1887.
At the time, a man named Clymer H. Freas was the editor of the local paper Punxsutawney Spirit and he began promoting the town’s groundhog as the official "Groundhog Day meteorologist".
The tradition is still celebrated today and many towns start festivities before winter sunrise - so that they have time to watch a groundhog stepping out of a burrow.
The largest Groundhog Day celebration is still held in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania but the popular tradition has also received widespread attention as a result of the 1993 film by the same name.
In Punxsutawney, their now world famous groundhog Phil is the chosen groundhog representative - and always gives his annual "forecast" on the top of a tiny hill in the town called Gobbler's Knob.
Reuters
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What happened in the movie?
In the 1993 movie arrogant weatherman Phil Connors must repeatedly live the events of February 2 when he is sent to Punxsutawney to report on the annual celebrations of the local groundhog.
After coming to terms with the idea that he is fated to re-live the same day for all eternity he starts to use the time to learn new skills - like learning to play the piano.
The iconic film was transformed into a musical which ran at London's Old Vic in 2016 and then transferred to Broadway.
Getty Images Groundhog handler John Griffiths holds Punxsutawney Phil during annual Groundhog Day festivities
Will spring come early? Or will winter run its course?
Only one groundhog knows, and his name is Punxsutawney Phil.
The seer of seers will be making his prediction based on whether or not he sees his shadow on Feb. 2 for Groundhog Day at Gobbler's Knob.
Planning on coming to see the prognostication yourself?
There are a few things you need to know.
There's no parking on Gobbler's Knob. You'll have to either walk there from downtown Punxsutawney (it's a 1.5 mile uphill hike) or catch a bus. The first bus leaves at 3 a.m. and run until 6:30. You can pick the busses up at Barclay Square (E. Mahoning St.), Punxsy Plaza (545 W. Mahoning St.) or Wal-Mart (21920 Route 119). Tickets for the bus are $5 per person.
There's no shelter at Gobbler's Knob. Dress warmly. It's expected to snow.
The prediction happens at the same time every year -- around 7:20 a.m. But there's a lot going on at the knob well before Phil looks for his shadow. Festivities start at 3 a.m. and include singing, dancing, bonfire and fireworks.
Phil's always accurate, but he's sometimes mistranslated. Such was the case last year, when he predicted six more weeks of winter and we got a bunch of warm weather. Here's a look at how historically accurate Punxsutawney Phil is. Curious as to how the prognostication works? Here's how we know what Phil says.
This isn't Phil's first rodeo. He's been predicting the weather for more than 130 years. Click here to learn all about the history of Groundhog Day. Just want to know more about Phil? Here's our guide to the most famous groundhog of all. For those who just want to know about groundhogs in general, here are 15 facts that'll make you the star of any groundhog trivia team.
While it's ultimately up to Phil, we still feel pretty invested in the whole shadow question. I broke down 10 reasons Punxsutawney Phil should not see his shadow (and thus give us an early spring), while Lisa Wardle penned a piece about why Punxsutawney Phil should see his shadow (and why we should all love winter).
Plan on spending time in Punxsutawney afterwards. There's a lot going on in the town, including screenings of "Groundhog Day," scavenger hunts, wine tastings and chainsaw wood carving. Check out the full schedule at this link.
If you're hungry while you're visiting, here's a guide to where to eat (and what to see) in Punxsutawney. Or try some of this Phil-inspired food, coffee and beer. On the other hand, you could always make your own Groundhog Day snacks. Here's a selection of quirky groundhog-themed treats.
Be sure to grab a souvenir to commemorate the day. Build-a-Bear is releasing a groundhog plush to celebrate Groundhog Day. It's super convenient to those who are just dying to cuddle Phil -- unlike the real thing, the plush version doesn't bite.
And, for all the Punxsutawney Phil haters out there, Harrisburg's Ground Dog will be making her own prediction. Learn all about Shipoke Sheena here.
Want a live play-by-play of Groundhog Day fun? Lisa Wardle (@lisajwardle), Daniel Zampogna (@DanielZampogna), Mark Pynes (@markpynes) and myself (@juliahatmaker) will be heading up Punxsy way to witness this grand event in person. So give us a follow on Twitter to stay in the loop on all the groundhog fun.
We'll also be taking over the PennLive Instagram and Snapchat accounts too, so be sure to give those a follow too (we're @pennlive on both).
This story has been updated.
