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Why the Toronto Raptors are for real this time


Dwane Casey talks about Sunday's win against the Lakers, and he and his staff representing the Eastern conference in the NBA All-Star Game.

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NEW YORK, Jan. 28, 2018 – Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey and his staff will coach Team LeBron in the 2018 NBA All-Star Game on Sunday, Feb. 18 in Los Angeles (8 p.m. ET).

Casey becomes the Raptors’ first All-Star Game head coach. He earned the honor for the first time in his nine seasons as an NBA head coach.

With tonight’s 123-111 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers, the Raptors (33-15, .688) clinched the best record in the Eastern Conference through games played on Sunday, Feb. 4 among the 14 conference teams with a head coach eligible for the 2018 All-Star Game. Boston Celtics head coach Brad Stevens was ineligible because he coached the East in last year’s All-Star Game.

Under a new All-Star Game format that replaces the traditional matchup between conferences, each All-Star Game coach will lead the team that includes the captain from the same conference. Casey and his staff will coach the All-Star team that features the Cleveland Cavaliers’ LeBron James as captain.

Houston Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni and his staff previously earned the spot to coach Team Stephen, captained by the Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry. Casey will coach against Toronto’s two All-Star selections, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, both drafted to Team Stephen.

Casey is the Raptors’ longest-tenured and winningest coach (294-230, .561). He guided Toronto to the playoffs in each of the previous four seasons – the four winningest seasons in franchise history. Casey has a career coaching record of 347-299 (.537) over seven seasons with the Raptors and two seasons with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The 67th NBA All-Star Game will air on TNT and ESPN Radio. The game will reach fans in more than 200 countries and territories in more than 40 languages.


Amid all the drama and unanswered questions in the NBA's Eastern Conference -- When will the talented but dysfunctional Cleveland Cavaliers pull it together? Can the Boston Celtics really expect to have staying power without Gordon Hayward? -- the Toronto Raptors continue to lurk beneath the radar.

With a projected 56.9 wins and a 62.9 percent chance of finishing first in the East, BPI sees only the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets as better teams than the Raptors. But good luck finding an objective observer who truly believes they'll reach the ultimate playoff stage.

The Raptors' history has something to do with their spot on the B list of NBA perception. Toronto has never reached the NBA Finals, and a very similar roster to the one it features today was swept out of the Eastern Conference semifinals by LeBron James and the Cavs just last year.

Well, if you're waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Raptors, you might find yourself waiting until after they're crowned Eastern Conference champions.

Why is this Raptors team different?

DeMar DeRozan's De-Renaissance

With a pair of All-Stars in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors have the talent to reach the Finals. Rick Madonik/Toronto Star via Getty Images

While the Raptors haven't completely revamped their offense, they have made a bunch of smart tweaks to help them gain an edge. The most notable is the dramatic improvement in shot selection and efficiency by DeMar DeRozan.

DeRozan has taken 2.8 fewer midrange jumpers per game in 2017-18 than he did a season ago, turning those into 3-point and layup attempts. The change in shot selection has increased his effective field goal percentage to a respectable 50.1 percent. In terms of shot-making, the All-Star choice ranks as the 36th-best shot-maker in the league with at least 50 shot attempts, according to Second Spectrum's quantified shooter impact metric.

Meanwhile, the team has lightened the workload on its other All-Star, Kyle Lowry. Lowry's playing time has dropped by almost 4.6 minutes per game, and the amount of times he's the ball handler in the pick-and-roll has decreased by 3.2 possessions per game, according to NBA.com/Stats.

With less reliance on the pick-and-roll, the offense has been coming from different areas. The Raptors were dead last in the league last year in scoring attempts that came off cuts, but they have risen to a respectable 15th in the league in that area in 2017-18, according to Synergy. Toronto was also dead last in percentage of made shots that were assisted last year, and has seen that mark improve to 23rd in the league.

If it comes down to facing the Cavs again -- and Cleveland can't fix its notoriously leaky defense -- the tweaks on offense could bear fruit for Toronto when it matters.

Tighter defense ... and better luck

More consistent work on the defensive end has helped the Raptors ascend to contender status. Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images

On the other end of the floor, the Raptors' defensive rating has improved by 2.2 points in 2017-18, from 104.9 to 102.7. That might not sound like much, but it's bumped them from No. 8 in the league in that category up to No. 3.

Opponent shot-making is down this year, as the Raptors' defense against shooter impact has improved from 16th in the league to fourth, per Second Spectrum. That number can be tricky, mind you. Did the Raptors' defense actually make a difference, or did opponents just happen to make fewer shots than last year? The Raptors' opponent shot quality is slightly better, which suggests Toronto has just been luckier on the defensive end.

But there are other ways to view this. The Raptors have increased the pace this season, adding about three more possessions per game. Increasing pace increases the chance for points in transition, but Toronto opponents have only averaged 1.03 points per transition chance this season, versus 1.31 points per transition last season -- a jump from No. 8 to No. 5 for the Toronto D. So while luck always has some impact on the opposing shooting numbers, the Raptors deserve credit for simultaneously increasing pace and improving transition defense.

Staying the course

Hanging on to Dwane Casey after a disappointing 2017 finish is a move that could bear fruit. Nick Turchiaro/USA TODAY Sports

When you've been a playoff team averaging 51 wins per season over the previous four years, it is tough to find room for improvement without significant change. While other perceived contenders went the route of massive, headline-grabbing lineup shifts, the Raps and GM Masai Ujiri may have taken a bolder step by only slightly tweaking the formula after last year's humbling playoff ouster.

The Raptors did jettison Rudy Gay among their big moves of recent memory, added Serge Ibaka last season, and made a show of resetting the team culture prior to this season, but kept Dwane Casey as coach and didn't undertake a massive overhaul of their identity. Once they get to April and beyond, that continuity could matter in a big way.

The organization has been shrewd in only making subtle changes that improve its playoff odds without introducing much risk, and that's evident from its general manager down to its players. While it may appear easier to tear things down and start fresh, it arguably takes greater strength to hold on to your beliefs about what the winning formula is. Success is fleeting in the NBA, and it may turn out that holding onto that belief was the Raptors' best move.

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.


TORONTO — Seven players finished with double-digit scoring. Eight hit at least one three-pointer. Five had six rebounds or more. Four had three or more assists. No one played more than 30 minutes or less than 20.

For those reasons and more, Sunday evening’s 123-111 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers may have been the Toronto Raptors most comprehensive victory of the season. Running a ten-man rotation, head coach Dwane Casey was able to employ the basketball equivalent of rolling his lines, as the Raptors moved the ball effectively, protected their rim, and didn’t shy away from the challenge presented by one of the NBA’s quickest teams.

“I really liked the way the guys started the game — they started the game with force,” said Casey, dripping wet from a post-game shower delivered by his players to celebrate his appointment as one of the head coaches at next month’s all-star game. “I thought we came out and matched their energy. And maintained. That’s the hardest thing to do in this league — maintain the consistency, the ball movement, man movement, defensive focus.”

After dropping two of three, one got the sense the Raptors needed a game like this, where the productivity was spread out and every player got to come away feeling good about their contribution.

It was truly a group effort. But here are three things that stood out.

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VanVleet’s career night

After a rough shooting night in Friday’s loss to the Utah Jazz, Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet was left with a foul taste in his mouth.

“You never want to go home with regret – and I thought I went home with a little bit of regret in the way I played,” VanVleet said. “So, I just tried to come back and turn it around tonight.”

That translated into a big shift from VanVleet early Sunday, as he scored 12 points in eight second-quarter minutes off the bench when the game was still up for grabs. But it was his finishing down the stretch that made it a career night for the second-year guard.

Three times in the fourth quarter, VanVleet ran up the court on fast breaks, surveyed his options, and attacked right up the heart of the Lakers defence, flipping in one-handed buckets off the high backboard as he was sent sprawling to the floor beneath the basket.

“That kid gets hit every time he goes in there,” Casey said of VanVleet, who finished with a career-high 25 points. “But he hits the floor, gets up, and gets back in the play. He’s not down there while the play’s going back.

“He’s an important part of what we do, just because of his toughness. Size to him is nothing. He goes in there and challenges, fights people. He’s a big piece of our physical and mental toughness.”

One of the smallest players on the floor at all times, VanVleet draws plenty of contact when he drives aggressively to the basket like that. But officials seem perfectly fine with allowing him to take an un-penalized beating. It must get frustrating.

“Nah, the ball was going in so I was feeling a little bit better — maybe if I’d missed a couple of those shots,” VanVleet said. “You want those calls. And sometimes you feel like they’re not going your way. But that’s the way the game goes. You’ve just got to keep going in there attacking. And maybe someday I’ll get them down the line.”

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DeRozan finds a way

About midway through the third quarter, DeMar DeRozan was having a peculiar night. He looked hesitant and unassertive in attack. He struggled to find a rhythm and when presented with choices, he seemed stuck in-between, coughing up a trio of turnovers. He was taking his opportunities, as he does and always will, but they weren’t falling at all, as he hit just three of his first 12 attempts.

“The younger me would’ve been discouraged, frustrated, let that dictate the game for me,” DeRozan said. “But, nowadays, I know it’s part of the game. Just because you started a certain way doesn’t mean you’ve got to end that way.”

Which explains why midway through the third quarter a switch flipped and DeRozan came alive. He started attacking and driving like himself again, hitting a pair of tough mid-range shots before blowing past Kentavious Caldwell-Pope beyond the arc and earning an and-one in traffic.

After scoring just one point through the quarter’s first seven minutes — a technical foul free throw — DeRozan put up 11 over the final five. He finished his night with 19, second to VanVleet on the team. But what Casey was most impressed by was how DeRozan found ways to contribute when things weren’t working.

“The past few weeks he’s been struggling a little bit. But he’s fighting through it,” Casey said. “He had seven assists — that was the most important thing. Anytime he gets above five, we’re pretty good. When his shot is not falling, teams are double teaming and sending extra bodies to him — he’s finding people. And that’s the most important thing.”

Pace and boards

The Lakers aren’t a playoff team but came in on a surge, winning eight of 10, including a triumph over the Eastern Conference leading Boston Celtics.

Part of that success is due to the team’s underrated defence, which quietly has become one of the league’s stiffer tests with a top-10 defensive rating of 104.7. Another part is the sheer pace the Lakers play at — no NBA team averages more than the 103.2 possessions per 48 minutes than Los Angeles does.

The Lakers speed was a particular point of importance for Casey coming into the game. Toronto doesn’t play slow — the Raptors rank 10th in the NBA in pace — but also doesn’t always sprint back to the defensive end following unsuccessful possessions.

“You can’t have two or three steps before you really decide to take off to get back. If you do, it’s going to be a lay-up at the other end,” Casey said before the game. “You have to turn and get out of the corners.”

The message resonated, as the Raptors were in full flight up and down the floor all night, forcing the Lakers into some awkward possessions with a scrambling, pressuring defence. Toronto held Los Angeles to only eight fast break points and was more than up for the task when the tempo of the game accelerated.

“There was a long stretch there with no timeouts, no dead balls, just kind of pick-up basketball,” VanVleet said. “And that was good for us.”

Another emphasis for Casey coming in was the offensive glass. The Lakers entered the game pulling down 24 per cent of offensive rebounds available, the seventh-highest rate in the NBA. The Raptors coach didn’t only want his players guarding against that, but exploiting it.

“We’ve got to do a great job of boxing out. And then we’ve got to run,” Casey said. “We’ve got to push the ball up the floor, pass it ahead, and play up the floor to make them pay for attacking the offensive glass.”

Toronto didn’t make Los Angeles pay too direly, scoring 16 points off fast breaks, but did protect its own glass well, limiting the Lakers to 13 offensive boards and winning the rebound battle, 53-44.

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