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Grammy Predictions: Where Kendrick Lamar, Jay-Z, Bruno Mars, and ‘Despacito’ Stack Up in the Smackdown


If Bruno Mars hadn’t already established himself as a bona-fide superstar by the time he released his third album, 24K Magic, in November 2016 -- with four Billboard Hot 100 No. 1s, an awe-inspiring Super Bowl performance and a record of the year Grammy win for “Uptown Funk -- his latest LP certainly set that in stone.

In addition to his recent Cardi B remix of “Finesse” creating serious buzz, Mars has earned another six Grammy nominations this year for 24K Magic, including a song of the year and record of the year nod. But while he’s worked hard for his success, there’s a little secret to how he’s dripping in finesse these days: The Stereotypes.

The producer quartet (Jonathan Yip, Ray Romulus, Jeremy Reeves and Charm) helped Mars find the exact “bounce” he was looking for on 24K Magic’s biggest hits, including the title track, “That’s What I Like” and “Finesse.” And though they’re just now receiving accolades for working with Bruno, The Stereotypes and Mars go way back. How far? When The Stereotypes started working together around 2007, their current manager, Larry Wade, was managing Bruno’s right-hand man, producer/songwriter (and Mars' The Smeezingtons cohort) Philip Lawrence.

“Philip was like, ‘Man you guys gotta meet this kid named Bruno, I’ve been working with him a lot,’” Romulus recalls to Billboard. “And that’s exactly what happened. We literally met up for a session and from then on, the rest is history.”

Their history could be even more iconic after Sunday’s Grammy Awards (Jan. 28), where they have a chance to take home a gramophone for “That’s What I Like,” which is up for both best R&B song and song of the year. (The foursome also earned a producer of the year nomination for their work with Mars and other hitmakers including Iggy Azalea ("Mo Bounce") and Lil Yachty ("Better" feat. Stefflon Don). Ahead of the big night, Billboard chatted with Yip and Romulus about their relationship with Mars, the magic of working on 24K Magic, and what it would mean to them to win with their old pal.

How did you meet Bruno?

Yip: We were introduced to him as, “You guys have to work with him. He’s crazy, he’s incredible.” And I think at that time, he might’ve just been dropped from Motown, but was trying to figure out his sound and what he was gonna do for his next steps. But when you get introduced to somebody, like when they give you that kind of intro, you’re like “Okay, he must be something.”

Romulus: I met him as Bruno Mars. I was like, “Man, that kid has a really cool name!” [Laughs.]

That’s too funny. What were your first impressions of him?

Yip: I was like, “I haven’t heard a voice this pure since Michael Jackson. His voice is so clean.” And then I started seeing him pick up a bunch of instruments and playing with them, and I was like, “God, this guy is ridiculous.”

This was in like ‘06, or something like that. He was obviously a lot younger, and not as experienced, but still very talented. So it was just watching this kid, multi-talented with a crazy voice, write songs and I was just like, “Geez, where did you come from?”

Romulus: From the day I met him, he was never supposed to be behind the scenes. This guy was supposed to be front and center from the beginning. So I think it was just a matter of time for things to align for him where, you know, he really got his shot. Once that door opened, he kicked it down and ran through and there was no stopping him.

We worked together on one session, and right away I was blown away. Just from his voice alone, I was like, “Wow, this kid is incredible.” And right then, right off the bat, we just clicked and we started like just working everyday, just trying to create songs for different artists and trying to get placements together.

What do you think is special about his songwriting and what he brings to sessions?

Yip: Talk about somebody who really just knows how to write a song. And a hit song, at that. One thing that he said to me back in the day -- this wasn’t even a song for him, we were doing a song for a different artist at the time, and we were working on the transition from the pre-hook to the hook -- and he was just like, “Give them what they want.” I always took that as, like, people want to hear dynamics. They want you to lead them in the song -- tell them the verse is here, tell them where the chorus is at. You don’t want them guessing, you want them to know where it’s at right away. And those words stuck to me the whole time: “Give them what they want.”

Romulus: For us, it was more how effortless it was creating with him. It didn’t feel like we were actually working and making songs, it just felt like we were hanging out, having conversations, and as we’re doing that we’re making the beats... he would literally have a new idea for something every second, he would just be spilling out ideas. Bouncing off ideas with him and Phillip, they were just an amazing duo to work with. So, that’s why we just stuck with that team, and we knew we had something right pretty early.

So even though years had passed and Bruno had blown up by the time you got back in the studio for 24K Magic, was it basically just like old times right away?

Romulus: It was like a reunion, we spent the first couple ours just like catching up. It’s amazing to see that no matter how much fame or success he has had... we’re still like those same young kids from the first time we jumped in the studio, just to be excited about music. It didn’t feel any different.

And then, you know, he played us “24K Magic,” and the idea that he had, and we just went right in and started working on it. He was basically like, “Hey guys, if we knock this out and kill it, I have a couple more ideas that I would love for you guys to be apart of.”

Yip: He played a lot of the stuff that he already had on the album. Immediately, we were like “Whoa. This is crazy and it’s throwback, but it’s good authentic throwback.” And he was like “Guys, I want to dance. I want it to feel like when I was back in school at a school dance. You know, in the club these days, people aren’t dancing anymore. They’re in their VIP booths with bottles, and they’re standing against the wall, or just looking at the DJ. What about times when we would be with and with a girl, or a guy and a guy, or a girl or whatever, and they’re dancing together? And not just sitting back just drinking. I want that feeling back.” It immediately excited us because we were like, “Yeah, I remember those times -- those times were awesome.”

Especially for “Finesse,” he was like, “We gotta go new jack swing. Let’s get one on here.” For me, new jack swing is like my favorite era ever, and so as we’re going along we’re just messing around making some stuff. He’s getting on the drum set, everybody is grabbing an instrument, and everybody is singing and yelling. Everybody is kind of contributing their little bit to the song, and next thing you know, we’re dripping in finesse [Laughs].

Was there a similar dance-based thing for the making of “That’s What I Like?”

Yip: He had a bunch of it, like a skeleton of it already laid out, and he was like, “We need to make this bounce.” We would just go back and forth and we were messing around with rhythms, and next thing we know, it’s hitting, it’s bouncing -- half-time, double-time. He kept saying, “It needs to make me bounce, it needs to make me move a certain way.” And he would move, and be like that’s it. This is it. He’d be like, “I don’t want it to make me move another way.”

Romulus: It felt like the whole room -- once he felt like the whole room was moving the same, he could envision everyone dancing sorta the same way to the song. Once we found that pocket that he wanted, that song was ready to go.

Yip: He’s just always moving in the studio. He’s never sitting down. He’s either thinking, and you can see him thinking, or he’s moving. I think he imagines songs as if he were performing them already.

What’s something about Bruno that fans may not know?

Romulus: He is his own biggest critic. He really, really cares. And he puts it all on the line. He’s the first one at the studio, last one to leave. Ultimately all of those decisions were up to him -- when it was ready to be released and everything like that. He put in countless hours of work even when we were gone just to make sure it was at the standard he wanted it to be.

Yip: Last week, working on performance stuff, I was there ‘til five in the morning, and our partner Charm and Bruno were there until eight in the morning. He is such a perfectionist. And I’ve never seen anyone who is like that so much. He’ll be like “That’s not right. Something is not right.” And he’ll stay there until he gets it right. And then it goes.

He’s the real deal for a reason because he works at it. He’s obviously naturally talented, but to get as good as he is, you have to work for it too, and he does.

How would it feel to win a Grammy with Bruno?

Yip: We’ve been trying not to think about it, and to stay busy and keep our heads down and not let that consume our life. But it’s definitely approaching pretty quickly, so we’re gonna have to start thinking about it. If we do think about it, It’s kind of crazy. Because we started this together, and to be here in this moment together just makes it extra cool and extra special. This is what we imagined as the original squad. We have tons of videos and there’s footage online of us making music when we were like babies. And now we’re all getting older, and what I would like to think, is the best part of our career right now.

Romulus: It will be just amazing because it will be everything coming full circle. At the end of the day, it’s a matter of time for that to happen, but it’s amazing that it is happening right now -- just blessed and appreciative of the moment.

How do you think you’d celebrate together?

Romulus: To party... hard. [Laughs.] That is the plan.

Yip: I have no idea. Yes, definitely partying [Laughs]. We’ve been to the Grammy’s before, but I honestly don’t know how to feel and how we will feel. That’s something where if we do win, I’m gonna ask him like, “Yo, What are we doing?” And then let him lead. Bruno’s used to this, so maybe it’s something that he could let us in on ‘cause I have no idea.

We’ve hung out for no celebration before and it was pretty cool, so I can only imagine what it is if it’s one of the biggest nights in music. It’s a blessing for sure to be a part of it, and for him to ask us come along on this journey. It’s been a career-defining and enlightening moment for us.


The 60th Annual Grammy Awards will take place at Madison Square Garden this Sunday, January 28, and air live on CBS. So as Gold Derby users scramble to nail down their predictions, I started to question which categories seemed ripe for an upset. Where could you score some major points in our contest by calling the right long-shot for the win? Take a look at my top five potential spoilers below. Do you agree? Sound off in the comments, and let us know which artist you think will claim the most shocking win on music’s biggest night.

1. Album of the Year – Bruno Mars (“24K Magic”) — With leading odds of 5/6 at Gold Derby, Kendrick Lamar is expected to walk away with the night’s highest honor for his thought-provoking album “Damn.” The rapper holds a red hot score of 95 on MetaCritic, and with seven nominations this year he’s expected to leave with an impressive a haul. But if we know one thing about the Grammy Awards, it is that they generally don’t embrace hip-hop in the top categories. OutKast remains the only rap act to win Album of the Year, and that was way back in 2004 for “Speakerboxxx/The Love Below.” On the flip side, Mars is a respected vocalist, musician and performer who has six Grammy nominations this year and five past wins to his name. He’s coming off a win for Artist of the Year at the American Music Awards, so it should shock no one if this more traditional choice claims the top prize at the Grammys. (Current Gold Derby predictions: second place with 14/5 odds)

2. Pop Vocal Album – Kesha (“Rainbow”) — After nearly being blacklisted from the music business following a legal dispute in which the hit-maker sued her former producer and collaborator, Dr. Luke, for sexual assault, Kesha reemerged with her most personal, critically-acclaimed collection of songs to date. Ed Sheeran is currently favored to win the Pop Vocal Album award for his smash hit, “Divide” with 1/4 odds, but Kesha fans shouldn’t give up hope just yet. “Rainbow” was the critics’ favorite among the nominees in this category with a MetaCritic score of 81, compared to just 62 for Sheeran. And in the era of the #MeToo movement Grammy voters may feel compelled to shine a light on one of the bravest, most outspoken celebrities in the fight against sexual violence. That woman also happened to release one of the best albums of 2017. (Current Gold Derby predictions: second place with 8/1 odds)

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3. Rock Album – The War on Drugs (“A Deeper Understanding”) — With eight previous Grammy wins, Metallica understandably have leading odds of 2/13 to win Best Rock Album this weekend. These legends of heavy metal clearly have the most name recognition in the field, but watch out for The War on Drugs to sneak in and steal this one. With a MetaCritic score of 81, “A Deeper Understanding” was a bigger hit with critics. It also offers a softer, more universal brand of rock music that could have gotten heavy radio airplay in the 1990s, before Top 40 stations essentially abandoned the genre. If you’re looking for one major upset to score you some points in the predictions contest, this might be your best bet. (Current Gold Derby predictions: third place with 28/1 odds)

4. Rap/Sung Performance – Jay-Z feat. Beyonce (“Family Feud”) — Currently leading this wide open race is Kendrick Lamar featuring Rihanna for their collaboration “Loyalty” with racetrack odds of 1/2. This young duo may be the hottest right now with music fans, but Grammy voters are a different crowd. Jay-Z has won 21 Grammy Awards and leads all nominees this year with eight bids. Add in his wife, who holds 22 Grammys of her own, and you’ve got a slam dunk. There is no way Jay-Z is going home empty-handed on Sunday night, and this is the easiest award to throw his way. (Current Gold Derby predictions: second place with 14/5 odds)

5. Best New Artist – SZA/Julia Michaels/Khalid — No artist in this field has had a more successful run to date than Alessia Cara, who has churned out so many hits in the last year that she barely feels like a new artist anymore. She has four nominations in total, including Song of the Year (“1-800-273-8255”), but she shouldn’t be overly confident. Remember when Esperanza Spalding took down Justin Bieber in this category in 2011? Right on Cara’s heels are R&B newcomers SZA and Khalid, who each reaped five bids of their own, one more than Cara. Then there is Julia Michaels, who is up for Song of the Year for her hit “Issues” and definitely has the clout to stage an upset here. My bet is still on Cara, but this is a four-way race. Sorry Lil Uzi Vert. (Current Gold Derby predictions: SZA in second place with 7/2 odds, Julia Michaels in third place with 18/1 odds, Khalid in fourth place with 28/1 odds)

Be sure to make your Grammy predictions so that Hollywood record executives and top name stars can see how their songs and albums are faring in our Grammy odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 28. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Grammys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.


Can hip-hop claim an Album of the Year Grammy for the first time in 14 years, or will Kendrick Lamar and Jay-Z split the vote? Will Bruno Mars instead be the default choice in the top categories for older voters who, you know, “like singing”? Will “Despacito” turn the Grammys into the Latin Grammys redux? There’s real suspense in most of the marquee categories for the 60th annual awards. Check out our precarious predictions and then find out how well (or badly) we called it Sunday at 7:30 ET/4:30 PT on CBS.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

“Redbone” — Childish Gambino

“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber

“The Story of O.J.” — Jay-Z

“HUMBLE.” — Kendrick Lamar

“24K Magic” — Bruno Mars

The showdown: Fonsi/Daddy Yankee/Bieber vs. Mars.

Likeliest winner: “Despacito.”

No hip-hop record has ever won in this category, and as eager as some voters might be to set precedent there, they might not agree on whether it should be the prince, Lamar, or the king, Jay-Z, who may be viewed more as “album artists” anyway. That leaves it as a likely battle between the choice that counts as the most conservative in this progressive bunch, Mars, and the populist leader, “Despacito.” Mars would prevail easily if this were an entertainer of the year award, but the fact that he had two different singles nominated for Record and Song is an indicator that neither was a singular, career-defining monster. “Despacito” unites the Recording Academy’s substantial Latin wing with the smaller give-Bieber-his-due-dammit! bloc. Even some of the voters who are immune to its cross-cultural bubblegum may be okay with the Grammys recognizing one of the biggest hits of our lifetimes.

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ALBUM OF THE YEAR

“Awaken, My Love!” — Childish Gambino

“4:44” — Jay-Z

“DAMN.” — Kendrick Lamar

“Melodrama” — Lorde

“24K Magic” — Bruno Mars

The showdown: Lamar vs. Mars.

Likeliest winner: Mars.

The category is an embarrassment of urban riches (plus Lorde, bless her also-deserving heart). But as far as actual hip-hop goes, the problem of too many worthy candidates may again force the genre to the sidelines, where it’s stood since 2004, when the album prize was claimed by OutKast. Jay-Z got the most nominations for this year’s Grammys — one more than Lamar — but it feels more like Lamar’s year, with “DAMN.” being far and away the most critically hailed album of 2017. Lamar has been nominated twice before and lost, so voters may especially feel he’s owed… even though Jay-Z’s fans could argue that a legend who never even showed up in the category before is really, really owed. These two will certainly siphon some votes away from one another, though — and how often have we lost money betting that this was finally Kendrick’s (or Kanye’s, or Eminem’s) year to represent? A split would send the vote over to Mars. There are arguments against “24K Magic,” too; some will feel Mars already got his Grammy love (for “Uptown Funk”) or that he’s not as much of an album artist. But if Lamar can’t get out of Jay-Z’s shadow, Bruno is there to give older voters who prefer the classic show-biz virtues over hip-hop a non-fuddy-duddy choice to coalesce around.

SONG OF THE YEAR

“Despacito” — Ramón Ayala, Justin Bieber, Jason “Poo Bear” Boyd, Erika Ender, Luis Fonsi & Marty James Garton, songwriters (Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber)

“4:44” — Shawn Carter & Dion Wilson, songwriters (Jay-Z)

“Issues” — Benny Blanco, Mikkel Storleer Eriksen, Tor Erik Hermansen, Julia Michaels & Justin Drew Tranter, songwriters (Julia Michaels)

“1-800-273-8255” — Alessia Caracciolo, Sir Robert Bryson Hall II, Arjun Ivatury & Khalid Robinson, songwriters (Logic Featuring Alessia Cara & Khalid)

“That’s What I Like” — Christopher Brody Brown, James Fauntleroy, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Ray Charles McCullough II, Jeremy Reeves, Ray Romulus & Jonathan Yip, songwriters (Bruno Mars)

The showdown: “1-800-273-8255” vs. “Despacito.”

Likeliest winner: “1-800.”

Again, Mars having two different songs in two different top category argues against the indomitability of either one of them, and this tune is more likely to get recognized as a great example of record-making than as a copyright for the ages. “1-800-273-8255” may not be for the ages, either, but as a suicide prevention anthem, it’s definitely for right now. It also benefits from rewarding three artists for the price of one. So does “Despacito,” for that matter, and it’s hard to bet against when it had as much ubiquitous presence as all the other songs combined. But Grammy voters who like to see some serious social impact pop up among their winners may go for the live-saver over the mere mood-lifter.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Alessia Cara

Khalid

Lil Uzi Vert

Julia Michaels

SZA

The showdown: Cara vs. SZA.

Likeliest winner: SZA.

A toss-up. Cara might seem like the obvious choice, as a precocious talent with such big pipes and solid taste in material that she’s guaranteed to stick around for years and never make the Grammys ashamed about their powers of prophecy. Working against her, maybe, is the fact that she’s already had so many hits that some feel the youngster was already a little long in the tooth to truly feel like a new discovery anymore (although tell that to 2001 Best New Artist Shelby Lynne, who was a dozen years into her major-label career when she won). SZA is certainly the most critically acclaimed artist on this list, and she could parlay that and her obvious street popularity into a win. The hip-hop vote-splitting with Lil Uzi Vert won’t be as severe here as it will be between Jay-Z and Lamar in other categories, and if you’re thinking that conservatism will still keep a hip-hop freshman from prevailing, remember that Chance the Rapper won it last year.

BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE

“Love So Soft” — Kelly Clarkson

“Praying” — Kesha

“Million Reasons” — Lady Gaga

“What About Us” — P!nk

“Shape of You” — Ed Sheeran

The showdown: Kesha vs. Sheeran.

Likeliest winner: Sheeran.

Kesha may be the sentimental favorite for voters leading with their #MeToo hearts. But given the well-publicized outrage in some quarters over Sheeran’s inescapable song having been shut out of the top categories, is there much chance he wouldn’t get this as his consolation prize?

BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE

“Something Just Like This” — The Chainsmokers & Coldplay

“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber

“Thunder” — Imagine Dragons

“Feel It Still” — Portugal. The Man

“Stay” — Zedd & Alessia Cara

The showdown: Fonsi/Daddy Yankee/Bieber vs. Portugal.

Likeliest winner: “Despacito.”

“Feel It Still” brings together a lot of coalitions: it’s charmed public radio listeners and little kids in equal measure, and it’s made Portugal. The Man into a successful new rock band, which is kind of like the dodo bird reemerging from extinction. On the other hand, when it comes to “Despacito,” even with a votership sworn to disregard commercial impact, it’s hard to bet against the record that went 8-times-platinum.

BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE

“You Want It Darker” — Leonard Cohen

“The Promise” — Chris Cornell

“Run” — Foo Fighters

“No Good” — Kaleo

“Go To War” — Nothing More

The showdown: Cohen vs. Cornell.

Likeliest winner: Cohen.

It’s a battle of the decedents. You could say that the sympathy vote for the two posthumous entries could cancel each other out and leave the Foo Fighters reclaiming the prize they last won in 2012. But unless there’s just too much head-scratching over whether or not Cohen counts as a rocker, his enormous cult is going to want to give him a proper Grammy sendoff.

BEST URBAN CONTEMPORARY ALBUM

“Free 6LACK” — 6LACK

“Awaken, My Love!” — Childish Gambino

“American Teen” — Khalid

“Ctrl” — SZA

“Starboy” — The Weeknd

The showdown: SZA vs. the Weeknd.

Likeliest winner: SZA.

SZA has all the sizzle here. But don’t count out some voters just checking off a past winner with the most name value, which could propel The Weeknd ahead of Khalid’s youth power and Gambino’s edge cred.

BEST COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE

“Body Like a Back Road” — Sam Hunt

“Losing You” –Alison Krauss

“Tin Man” — Miranda Lambert

“I Could Use a Love Song” — Maren Morris

“Either Way” — Chris Stapleton

The showdown: Lambert vs. Stapleton.

Likeliest winner: Stapleton.

Hunt had one of the biggest singles of the year in any format, and Krauss is one of the Grammys’ all-time top rewardees. So how weird is it to immediately count both of them out in this category? Lambert is going to get a lot of love here partly because she was locked out of the best country album category, still one of this year’s most shocking “snubs.” But you’d go broke betting on anyone but Stapleton to win any country award he can for years to come — and it doesn’t hurt that “Either Way” actually is the most shattering song here.

BEST RAP PERFORMANCE

“Bounce Back” — Big Sean

“Bodak Yellow” — Cardi B

“4:44” — Jay-Z

“HUMBLE.” — Kendrick Lamar

“Bad and Boujee” — Migos Featuring Lil Uzi Vert

The showdown: Jay-Z vs. Lamar.

Likeliest winner: Lamar.

An institution as fundamentally conservative as the Grammys is still likely to be suspicious of Cardi B as a possible one-hit wonder (even if, at this point, without an album out, she’s already up to five-hit wonder). It’s more probable that it’ll come down to a battle of the behemoths. It’s Lamar’s year, but it’s Jay-Z’s world, so that could go either way.

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM

“Everything Now” — Arcade Fire

“Humanz” — Gorillaz

“American Dream” — LCD Soundsystem

“Pure Comedy” — Father John Misty

“Sleep Well Beast” — The National

The showdown: LCD Soundsystem vs. the National.

Likeliest winner: LCD.

Anything could happen in this category, but several of the acts nominated seem to be at least slightly into the hepster backlash phase of their careers. LCD Soundsystem weathered their own backlash (for daring to come out of retirement!) better than most, and theirs is the one album from this crop that made it into the top 10 of the Village Voice critics’ poll. Their ability to pull favor from both the rock and EDM camps doesn’t hurt.

BEST SPOKEN WORD ALBUM (Includes Poetry, Audio Books & Storytelling)

“Astrophysics for People in a Hurry” — Neil Degrasse Tyson

“Born to Run” — Bruce Springsteen

“Confessions of a Serial Songwriter” — Shelly Peiken

“Our Revolution: A Future to Believe In” — Bernie Sanders and Mark Ruffalo

“The Princess Diarist” — Carrie Fisher

The showdown: Springsteen vs. Fisher.

Likeliest winner: Springsteen.

For voters of a certain age, the choice between the Boss and the Princess couldn’t be tougher. They won’t get to vote for Fisher again, but then, it’s not like Springsteen will be doing a second audiobook of his life story any time soon. This is a music-based membership, after all, so it’s tough to imagine Springsteen being born to lose… unless it’s to the combined force of recent tragedy and juicy Harrison Ford affair stories.


Walau album 'DAMN.' milik Kendrick Lamar begitu dicintai kritikus, album '24K Magic' milik Bruno Mars masih punya peluang untuk menang. Kok bisa?



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