Will the Eagles repeat? Will Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck return to restore their teams’ fortunes? And who will go down in flames?
Best team that won't make the playoffs
The part I feel confident in saying is that it will come from the NFC. Teams from that conference won 41 out of 64 games against AFC opponents in 2017 and trades like the one that sent Khalil Mack from Oakland to Chicago are hardly redressing the balance. There’s a lot of hype around the Giants after they upgraded the line and added Saquon Barkley, but I’m not convinced they can bridge the gap in a year when the schedule looks grim. PB
Green Bay Packers. The thing about the Packers is that we don't know how healthy Aaron Rodgers will be. If he's playing like the Rodgers of old, they're absolutely making the playoffs. If he struggles, the Packers probably end up having a losing record. Let's split the difference here and say that Rodgers will be good, but not dominant, and Green Bay just miss the postseason. HF
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Jacksonville. Jason Mendoza’s favorite team had the league’s easiest schedule during last year’s charmed run, their division is much-improved and their quarterback is Blake Bortles. No sale. BAG
The Lions will be balanced and explosive. They finally have a talented offensive line, featuring, at worst, an above-average player at every spot. That’s a decided advantage given the state of groups across the league. Matthew Stafford is surrounded by a stack of weapons, too. Defense will be their fatal flaw: the Lions lack speed up front. In the modern NFL, such things matter. OC
Non-playoff team from last year that will make the postseason
With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are a safe bet to be contenders once more. PB
After trading for Jimmy Garoppolo last season, the 49ers ended their season on a 5-0 run. They thought the bounce was real enough to sign him to a historic five-year, $137.5m contract. Time will tell whether he ends up being more "next big hype" than "next big hope," but it's hard to see them missing out on the playoffs if he plays like he did at the end of last season. HF
Green Bay. The Packers were among the NFC’s best teams last year when Aaron Rodgers went down for the season with a broken collarbone. They finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008. They’ll be back. BAG
The Texans would have made the postseason last year were it not for Deshaun Watson’s injury. Health will be the issue again this season. If they can keep their stars on the field – Watson, JJ Watt, and Jadeveon Clowney – they will enter the playoffs as one of the top seeds in the AFC. OC
MVP
Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Packers should be a force again if Aaron Rodgers stays fit. Photograph: Jeffrey Phelps/AP
Aaron Rodgers made no secret at his sadness over the Packers’ decision to part ways with Jordy Nelson, but in Jimmy Graham he has a new red-zone target to enjoy. I’m expecting a big year from the quarterback as he bounces back from the injury that kept him out for most of the 2017 season. PB
Jimmy Garoppolo. At this point in NFL history, we assume that the MVP will be a quarterback. If my earlier prediction that Garoppolo will drag the 49ers to the playoffs practically by himself pans out, then he gets serious MVP consideration. It's also possible that the league has added incentive to hand the award to the current 49ers quarterback just to spite the former 49ers quarterback currently making the NFL's life difficult. HF
Rodgers. How lucky for Green Bay the best player in the sport plays the most important position. Every year he’s healthy, the Packers are among the last teams standing in January. BAG
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Andrew Luck! He will bounce back to pre-injury levels, leading to all sorts of hyperbole and hardware. Luck is playing on the worst roster in a tough division. If he can drag the Colts to the postseason, he will have earned the award. OC
Rookie of the year
Saquon Barkley is the obvious choice, for both talent and opportunity in a Giants offense that has been so long without a viable running game. So just to be contrary, I’ll take Broncos pass rusher Bradley Chubb, who looked sharp in preseason and should not face too many double teams with Von Miller lined up on the other side. PB
The Giants picked Barkley second overall in this year’s draft, something which is nearly unheard of considering how running backs are typically valued in the modern NFL. Given where the Giants drafted him, they expect that Barkley will start producing immediately and, if he does, it’s possible that he will run away with rookie of the year honors. HF
Barkley. The Giants will be terrible again but they have a top-five offense on paper and the Penn State career all-purpose yards leader will be responsible for a lion’s share of it. BAG
Given his position and the market he plays in, I think this is Sam Darnold’s award to lose. However, I think the two most impactful rookies will be Denzel Ward (CB, Browns) and Josh Jackson (CB, Packers). Jackson has an outside shot of clinching the award because he’ll be playing in big-time games on the national stage, a requirement for non-quarterbacks or running backs. And he’s more likely to top young corners in the big metrics: interceptions, passes defended etc. OC
Johnny Manziel Disaster Waiting To Happen Dept
A team playing in a city that wants to sue it? Yes, this can only end well. PB
We're going to see the end of the Roger Goodell Era. At a certain point, there will be enough public pressure on Goodell from all sides that he realizes it's just not worth it to remain as NFL commissioner. Maybe it will happen because of how he's handling the anthem controversy. Maybe it will happen when yet another star player gets caught committing a horrific act of abuse and the league's response ends up being appallingly inadequate. Whatever it is, it feels like at some point this season, an overwhelmed Goodell is going to accept a "golden parachute" offer and make a hasty but profitable exit. May God have mercy on whoever ends up having to clean up his mess. HF
There’s no fun in being right about these things. But trouble never seems to be far behind Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston, who’s already starting the season on a three-game suspension for allegedly groping an Uber driver. BAG
How about … Johnny Manziel. Look at the state of back-up quarterbacks around the league. Somebody is going to talk themselves into Manziel at some point during the season, particularly if we get a spate of injuries. Manziel will suit up for at least one drive this season. It won’t go well. OC
One bold prediction
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Will Tyrod Taylor remain the Browns’ starting quarterback? Photograph: Ron Schwane/AP
The Colts will make the postseason. OK, this prediction relies entirely on Andrew Luck staying healthy, but in seasons when he starts 15 or more games, Indianapolis have gone 11-5, 11-5, 11-5, 8-8. People forget quite what a game-changer he is. Yes, there are lots of questions elsewhere on this roster, and his health is far from a certainty. But Frank Reich is a fine offensive coach, and the Colts did at least try to upgrade the pass protection this offseason. I can see a path to nine or 10 wins for this team in a shallow AFC. PB
This is going to sound like heresy here in New England, but there's a very real chance we see Tom Brady, who just turned 41, decline this season. No we haven't seen significant signs of trouble yet but, as we saw with Peyton Manning, when the end comes in the NFL, it comes quick. HF
The tricked-out Los Angeles Rams are coming off an 11-5 season and have emerged as a trendy Super Bowl pick, but they’ll be doomed by a lack of chemistry and miss the playoffs as the San Francisco 49ers win NFC West. BAG
Jacksonville trade for Tyrod Taylor. Cleveland will start the season with Taylor at quarterback, but Baker Mayfield is primed to takeover. The Browns will use the first few weeks of the season to pump-up Taylor’s trade value. Taylor represents an upgrade over Bortles. If the Jacksonville quarterback struggles early, the Jags should seek a deal. OC
This year, the anthem protests will...
Be misrepresented by opponents as a protest against the national anthem and/or American values. PB
Continue to be the biggest storyline in football. It's clear that the NFL's attempts to determine the proper punishment for protesting players just reignited the controversy. It's going to be another long season for the "stick to sports" crowd. HF
Make national headlines beyond the sports page as Trump hits the campaign trail to stump for his endorsees ahead of the midterm elections, which take place right after the season’s halfway mark. BAG
Lead to the decertification of the NFLPA. At this point, it feels like it’s the players’ only option if they want to make significant, long lasting changes. The NFL’s middle class is declining. Elite players smartly used holdouts this preseason to get major paydays. Rookie contracts are as valuable and cost-effective as ever. Players in the middle, still the majority of the league, continue to lose their leverage. That, plus the bad will towards the owners and commissioner, could lead the players towards a drastic step. OC
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AFC East champ
The Patriots. Again. PB
Even if Brady does lose a step or two in the upcoming season, it shouldn't be enough to prevent the Patriots from winning their division. Bill Belichick is still the head coach and the competition in the AFC East once again doesn't look likely to provide much competition. HF
New England. We’ve seen cracks in the Brady-Belichick-Kraft triumvirate over the past two years and the three-time MVP quarterback, who turned 41 last month, will inevitably slow down at some point. But the baked-in advantage of a trash division all but ensures a 15th AFC East title in 17 seasons for the Patriots. BAG
Nobody in AFC East has caught up with the Patriots … yet. New England’s biggest flaw in the past couple of years has been speed in the front-seven. They added Adrian Clayborn in free agency and see Derek Rivers return, an edge-rusher who missed his rookie season with a knee injury. Those names might not mean a great deal to you right now, but they are improvements to the weakest part of an already loaded team. OC
AFC North champ
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Antonio Brown’s Steelers are the team to beat in the AFC North. Photograph: Don Wright/AP
Between Le’Veon Bell’s extended holdout, the Ryan Shazier-shaped hole in the middle of the defense and Ben Roethlisberger’s 14 seasons of wear and tear, it is no foregone conclusion that the Steelers retain their division crown. But if the running back does return to the field in time for week one, then they will once again be hard to beat. PB
This might be the toughest call in the AFC, as the Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens should both be equally tough outs, no matter who they're playing. The Steelers, however, just seem like a scarier team. Maybe the edge is that Roethlisberger has that uncanny knack of completing plays despite being pulled apart by the opposing defense while Joe Flacco is … Joe Flacco. HF
Pittsburgh. Anyone but the Steelers, where bona fide stars Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Bell (maybe) will feature, would be a surprise after winning four of the last five AFC North titles, although an improved Baltimore side will likely challenge for a wild-card spot. BAG
I’m all for the excitement in Cleveland. The team has youth, talent, and exciting players on both sides of the ball. Baltimore may have the top defense in the league; at any rate it’s the most versatile. And keep an eye on Cincinnati. The Bengals are sliding under-the-radar. They have as fearsome a pass-rush as anyone, and just enough explosiveness on offense to make opponents worry. Still, this is the Steelers’ division to lose. The only thing I can see derailing Pittsburgh is another injury to Roethlisberger. OC
AFC South champ
I’ve already made my case for the Colts as a more competitive team than many have predicted. Houston ought to be stronger, too, with Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt both back from injury. Tennessee won nine games last year and made useful additions on either side of the ball in Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler. The Jaguars are still my pick, though, thanks to that suffocating D. PB
This division feels like it's going to go down to who manages to have a comeback player of the year caliber season. If Luck plays like a franchise quarterback again, the Colts have the edge. If Watt plays like the force he once was, the Texans could take control of the division. I like Watt's chances. HF
Houston. The emerging star Watson should pick up where he left off before getting injured last year. Watt is back, too. Throw in the additions of Tyrann Mathieu and Aaron Colvin and the Texans should have enough to overtake the Jaguars. BAG
With Watson back in the fold and a star-studded defense at every level, the Texans have the makings of a division champion. There are issues around the edges: Houston’s offensive line has less talent than any in the league; depth on defense is an issue. Health will likely be the deciding factor. OC
AFC West champ
With a competent kicking game, the Chargers might have taken the division last year. It is no guarantee that Caleb Sturgis can provide it, but his modest 81% career success rate is still a great deal better than the 66% achieved by a hapless cast in 2017. PB
The Chiefs’ season may come down to how good Patrick Mahomes ends up being in his first full year at quarterback, but this feels like a team that can pick up enough wins in the regular season to capture the division and then go on to suffer an Andy Reid-assisted flameout in their first playoff game. HF
The Chargers. Philip Rivers is back at the stick of last year’s top-ranked passing offense and the defense is better than it gets credit for. They finished strong, winning nine of their last 12 games after going winless in September. It should be enough to end Kansas City’s two-year reign atop the division. BAG
Preseason injuries have tortured the Chargers, again. Still, LA are poised for a deep playoff run They still have the top edge-rushing duo in the league, a great secondary and a seasoned quarterback. OC
NFC East champ
When will Carson Wentz return to the field? Can he perform at the same MVP level that he achieved before his injury last year? Does it really matter, given that the Eagles won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles anyway, and beefed up an imposing defensive line rotation with Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata since then? PB
The reigning world champions should be the favorites to once again to win their division. It will be interesting to see how things go with Wentz set to take the reins back from Foles, but that probably goes into the category of Good Problems To Have. HF
Philadelphia. It’s been 13 years since a team in the NFL’s glamour division has won it twice in a row, but there’s every reason to believe the Eagles will break the schneid. They’re deep on both lines, they’ve added a couple nice pieces on defense (including Michael Bennett and Sidney Jones) and Wentz was playing at an MVP level until he went down to injury. BAG
The Eagles should go back-to-back. They have an embarrassment of riches all over the field. Watch for second-year cornerback Sidney Jones. He missed his entire rookie year with an achilles injury. If he bounces back to his pre-injury level, he will be an instant star. Of course, all this presupposes that Wentz returns in week three. If not, Philly will be in trouble. OC
NFC North champ
The Vikings won 13 games last season and believe they will be better with Kirk Cousins behind center and a healthy Dalvin Cook in the backfield. But as long as the Packers have an upright Aaron Rodgrs, they’re going to be hard to pick against. PB
It feels weird picking the team that will be starting Cousins over the team starting Rodgers, but the latter is a question mark and Minnesota feel like they are going to win out thanks to the talent they have on the defensive end of the ball. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if the division comes down to tiebreakers, however. HF
Minnesota. One could argue the splashy addition of free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to a team coming off a 13-3 campaign made the Vikings the NFL’s most complete team. But the Packers, benefitting from the return of Rodgers and a revamped defense, will push them till the end. BAG
This is a true toss-up. The Bears trading for Khalil Mack changes the entire dynamic of the division. Vic Fangio is coming for Mike Zimmer’s best-defense-in-the-division crown. Chicago are young and have lethal speed at every level of its defense. Out in Green Bay, there’s that Aaron Rodgers guy to deal with. And you can’t rule out the Lions making a run, either. On balance, though, I like the Vikings’ chances. They’re the more proven team on either side of the ball. Kirk Cousins represents an upgrade over Case Keenum at quarterback. Dalvin Cook returning from injury will help push Minnesota over the top. OC
NFC South champ
Facebook Twitter Pinterest Will Drew Brees win another Super Bowl as his career winds down? Photograph: Gerald Herbert/AP
Hey, remember how the Saints were one miracle play away from going to the NFC Championship game last year? Yeah, they really haven’t lost a lot of pieces since. This will be another very competitive division, but a team that can turn to Drew Brees when the running game isn’t working, rather than the other way around, is a team in very rude health indeed. PB
The Saints signed Brees to a two-year extension back in March with the hope that he had at least one more season of playing like Drew Effing Brees in him. While he's eyeing records held by legends like Brett Favre and Peyton Manning, one has to think that his goal will be returning to the Super Bowl. It's not out of the question. HF
Former MVP Matt Ryan leads an Atlanta Falcons offense featuring an embarrassment of riches, among them Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper and Justin Hardy. No shortage of playmakers on defense, either. New Orleans and Carolina should contend but look for the Falcons to contend for the NFC’s top overall seed. BAG
I have no confidence in this pick. I love the offense that has been put together in New Orleans. But I still don’t entirely trust all the young pups on defense. Granted, I hardly trust Steve Sarkisian calling plays for Atlanta’s offense, but I trust it a little more. Side note: I think Tampa have the potential to be a true dumpster fire. OC
NFC West champ
I’ve picked Gurley and Donald to win player of the year awards already. It feels like a stretch to suggest that anyone other than the Rams would win this division if they do. PB
Could the Rams end up being good enough this season to actually get Los Angeles to buy into them? Maybe not, but they have the opportunity to stay in the public consciousness long enough that people stop forgetting that they no longer play in St Louis. HF
The 49ers started 1-10 before Jimmy Garoppolo got a chance under center and closed out with five straight wins. If the Rams’ bold gamble to reach the Super Bowl doesn’t pay off, look for the Niners to take advantage. BAG
The Rams have transformed the nature of the NFC West in a couple of years thanks to a pair of coaching hires (Sean McVay and Wade Phillips) and a raft of free-agent moves and trades. Do win-now moves always work out? No. But the Rams were smart with who they targeted this offseason. They reenforced strengths and improved upon weakness. Their secondary reads like an All-Pro list. Their defensive line is even better. The 49ers will push them close, but ultimately the Rams have too much quality to disappoint. OC
AFC wildcards
Ravens and Colts. PB
Ravens and Jaguars. HF
Chiefs and Ravens. BAG
Jaguars and Colts. OC
NFC wildcards
Vikings and Bears. PB
49ers and Panthers. HF
Saints and Packers. BAG
Packers and 49ers. OC
NFC championship game
Rams over Eagles. PB
Saints over Eagles. HF
Eagles over Falcons. BAG
Vikings over Packers. OC
AFC championship game
Patriots over Chargers. PB
Steelers over Patriots. HF
Patriots over Chargers. BAG
Patriots over Texans. OC
Super Bowl LIII
Facebook Twitter Pinterest The Patriots and Eagles have the tools to reach the Super Bowl again. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Rams over Patriots. After becoming the NFL’s youngest head coach in modern history, and then the youngest coach of the year, Sean McVay completes the set by becoming the youngest to win a Super Bowl as well. Better yet, he does it against the most successful of them all. PB
Steelers over Saints. Old guy quarterback showdown! Roethlisberger will be 36. Brees will be 40! As a game, however, it might end up being anticlimactic. One can imagine Brees burying Pittsburgh in touchdowns, picking up MVP honors and announcing his retirement live on television. At least that's the Hollywood ending, we should know by now that Super Bowl games rarely follow the script. HF
Eagles over Patriots. It’s down to Carson Wentz, really. But if Philadelphia’s third-year quarterback makes a full recovery from his knee injury and can regain the MVP form he showed during his breakout sophomore campaign (where he threw for 33 touchdowns against only seven interceptions), the Eagles will become the first team in more than a decade to repeat as Super Bowl champions. BAG
Vikings over Patriots. Dumping Case Keenum for Kirk Cousins pays off. The Vikings’ skill-positions are as talented as any group in the league. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen might be the best two-man receiving tandem around. Dalvin Cook is a special talent. Add that offense to a top-tier defense and you have a potent championship formula. I have the Patriots suffering another heartbreaker in the Super Bowl. There are concerns with their receiving group and offensive tackle spots. But they still have Brady at the peak of his powers, and a potentially frisky defense that has filled in its holes. No other team in the AFC has the same proven quality. OC
JAY Ajayi scored on two runs and the Philadelphia defense made Matt Ryan look awful for much of the match as the Eagles opened the defense of their first NFL title since 1960 with a sloppy, penalty-filled 18-12 victory over Atlanta.
Ajayi scored on runs of 1 and 11 yards and the Eagles even came up with a version of the Philly Special.
They needed a last stand by their defense, just as they got in last year’s divisional playoff victory over the Falcons.
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media_camera Philadelphia Eagles' Jay Ajayi rushes for one of his two touchdowns. Picture: AP
In an eerily familiar scenario, Julio Jones couldn’t come down with Matt Ryan’s high pass on the final play from the 5.
It was a game marred by penalties, dropped passes, missed assignments and weak quarterbacking - yes, the defenses played a role, but it still had the feel of a preseason contest.
At least it had the Philly Special nod to somewhat spice the Eagles’ first appearance as a league champion since earning the 1960 title.
Tevin Coleman scored on a 9-yard run after an Eagles player touched the ball with his foot during an Atlanta punt to push the Falcons ahead 12-10.
media_camera The Falcons’ Matt Ryan (#2) fumbles the ball under pressure from the Eagles’ Fletcher Cox. Picture: Getty
Even then, usually sturdy veteran Matt Bryant banged the extra point kick off the right upright.
The Eagles unveiled their championship banner above Lincoln Financial Field following a rain and lightning delay.
Not a lot else went right but enough did.
Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles caught a pass for a key first down on Philadelphia’s drive to Jay Ajayi’s 1-yard TD run for a 10-6 lead on a throw from receiver Nelson Agholor.
Jones finished with 10 catches for 169 yards after not playing in the preseason.
They did it again?
YES!
Nick Foles is catching passes. 🔥
Philly Special: Part II #ATLvsPHI @Eagles pic.twitter.com/Gct9Yt4h3O — NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2018
As for the play of the game? You could call it the Philly Special Junior.
It didn’t go for a touchdown like the pass Foles caught to help the Eagles beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
But it was just as tricky.
Wide receiver Agholor took a handoff on a reverse and Foles took off down the right sideline.
The pass was perfect, just like Trey Burton’s Super Bowl throw to Foles.
The gain was 15 yards to the Atlanta 26 in the third quarter, with Foles stumbling out of bounds.
Soon after, Jay Ajayi scored from the 1-yard line to give the Eagles A 10-6 lead en route to an ugly 18-12 victory on Friday (AEST).
Australian sensation Jordan Mailata was inactive for the Eagles, while Geelong super boot Cameron Johnston impressed with some booming punts.
Aussie's 58y booming punt 0:19 NFL: Australian punter Cameron Johnston has looked good so far in the first game of the NFL season for the Philadelphia Eagles. His highlight? This booming 58y punt. Aussie's 58y booming punt
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Anyone could have pegged a Patriots Super Bowl appearance in September 2017. That’s easy. Predicting they’d have to beat the Jaguars in the AFC title game to get there? Way crazier.
While some traditions remain tried and true in the NFL, each season finds a way to dump some unexpected nonsense on the sporting world and remind us why we love this game. Every season sees contenders fade and newcomers take their place atop the food chain, though rarely for long (and never if you’re the Browns).
We already made our normal predictions for the NFL’s major awards and who we think will win Super Bowl 53. Now it’s time to go big with five bold predictions for this season:
Mitchell Trubisky will push the Bears into the playoff race
I don’t think the Bears are ready for the playoffs yet — but there’s plenty to like about the team’s rebuild. While most of the focus will be on a defense led by 2016 Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and a pair of top-10 NFL Draft talents (Roquan Smith, Leonard Floyd), there are enough interesting pieces on the other side of the ball to scare NFC North opponents.
Football Therapy: 2018 NFL season preview SB Nation’s stats expert Bill Connelly crunched the numbers to explain how your favorite NFL team can improve this year. Check out our season preview for a complete guide to the 2018 season.
New WR1 Allen Robinson missed 97 percent of the 2017 season, but he’s still a 25-year-old red zone standout who managed to notch 1,400 receiving yards with Blake Bortles shot-putting balls into his general vicinity. Fellow offseason addition Trey Burton’s biggest moment as an Eagle may have been as a passer, but he’s an athletic tight end who should shine now that he’s no longer in Zach Ertz’s shadow. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen may be the league’s best tailback platoon — a pairing who combined for nearly 1,400 yards despite opponents’ constantly stacking the box to shut them down.
The man tying them all together will be Trubisky, the No. 2 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. The North Carolina alum wasn’t asked to do much last fall. He was originally meant to be brought along slowly, only to be thrust into the spotlight thanks to Mike Glennon’s continuing failure as a quarterback. The early returns weren’t great — 183 yards per game, seven touchdowns, seven interceptions — but also came with a receiving corps led by Kendall Wright, Dontrelle Inman, and Josh Bellamy.
That’s interesting, because we just saw a highly rated QB prospect make the leap after his team upgraded its receiving corps around him. Jared Goff averaged fewer yards per game, fewer yards per pass, and completed less of his passes than Trubisky did as a rookie. Then the 2016 No. 1 overall pick got targets like Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp to pair with a top-notch running game, leading to a breakout year two. The Bears are betting their young quarterback can follow his path to prosperity this fall and beyond — and it’s not a stretch to think it can work. — Christian D’Andrea
Jerry Jones is going to sue somebody
The Dallas Cowboys owner used to get grudging respect, the de facto commissioner who had a good read on the business of pro football and where it was going. That image was always a little overwrought, conjured up by old guys inside the columnist bubble. And it’s a stark contrast to the out-of-touch robber baron with dollar signs in his eyes sucking up to President Trump and demanding his players stand “toe on the line,” right to peaceful protest be damned.
Last year’s threat to sue the NFL and some of his fellow owners over Roger Goodell’s contract — a proxy war for the six-game suspension the league gave Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott — wasn’t even the first time he sued the league. He famously filed an antitrust lawsuit against the NFL so that the Cowboys could tap into their own line of merchandizing and marketing revenue more than two decades ago and won.
My personal favorite stunt he pulled was when he maaaaaaybe got Papa John Schnatter to blame player protests for sinking pizza sales.
So who’s Jerry gonna take to court, or at least threaten to, this year? My prediction is that Colin Kaepernick’s collusion case will come back to bite him, and he’ll call the lawyers in for some high-level damage control.
Last week, Kaepernick’s case got the green light to proceed into full-on arbitration hearing, which will be a lot like a court fight. Because it’s arbitration the proceedings don’t happen on the public record, but there will be leaks. And it’s hard to see Jones, who was deposed in April, coming out of this looking like he didn’t have some hand in blackballing Kaepernick. — Ryan Van Bibber
The NFL will have 10 1,000-yard rushers in 2018
There's been an influx of running back talent over the past few years as teams are spending high draft picks on them again. Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, and Sony Michel have all gone in the first round since 2015. Teams don't spend high picks on running backs without committing a high-volume workload to them. Even last year when Fournette and McCaffrey were struggling for their respective teams, they were still fed the ball on a routine basis.
First-round backs are essentially guaranteed to see a lot of carries, but in order for this prediction to come true, the running backs drafted after the first round are going to need to produce. Luckily, this isn't an issue for the NFL as teams have hit on plenty of later round running backs. Arizona's David Johnson had a fantastic preseason after he missed almost the entire 2017 season with a wrist injury. Devonta Freeman, Kareem Hunt, and Le'Veon Bell are running backs drafted outside of the first who are expected to run for 1,000 yards, and have in the past.
There are also some sneaky options to hit that 1,000-yard benchmark this year. Alfred Morris reunited with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco — the last time they were together in Washington, Morris had a 1,600-yard rookie season after being a fifth round pick from Florida Atlantic University. Since Jerick McKinnon suffered a torn ACL, Morris could emerge as the lead back for the 49ers. Royce Freeman, the Broncos' third-round pick this year, was just announced as the starting running back. He had a productive preseason and looks far superior to Devontae Booker, his competition in the backfield.
Opportunities and talent are sprinkled all over NFL backfields. With more premium draft picks being put into the position and clear cut starters emerging around the league, we're going to see more 1,000 yard rushers. — Charles McDonald
This is the year Tom Brady finally stops being Tom Brady
Maybe it’s reckless to think that Brady and the Patriots are going to come crashing down immediately after another MVP season for the quarterback and another trip to the Super Bowl.
But he’s 41 years old, dammit! It has to happen soon.
Brady slowed down the stretch in 2017 with six touchdowns and five interceptions in December, but that’s kind of par for the course for him — that’s always been his worst month, statistically.
So there’s really no sign of slowing to suggest this prediction has a chance at being true. I’m just making it because he’s 41 YEARS OLD.
I know, I know. Brady eats avocado ice cream and he drinks so much water that he doesn’t get sunburnt or something. I’m also reasonably confident he’s been siphoning talent out of young players like a Dementor. There’s a good chance he’ll live to be 160, but he’s going to stop being good at football at some point, right?
The only players to ever be a full-time starting quarterback at age 41 or older are Warren Moon, Brett Favre, and Vinny Testaverde. Only Moon was even remotely good, and that was when he turned 41 in November of the 1997 season. In 1998 he was benched shortly after his 42nd birthday.
Every bit of conventional wisdom tells us this is the time when Brady’s career will start circling the drain. I’m going with the conventional wisdom, avocado ice cream be damned. — Adam Stites
Myles Garrett will set the Browns’ single-season sack franchise record ... and still won’t get one against Ben Roethlisberger
Here’s something the Browns didn’t screw up: drafting Myles Garrett No. 1 overall in 2017. Although Garrett’s NFL debut was delayed until October due to a sprained ankle, the pass rusher made his presence felt immediately, getting a sack on his first play.
In 11 games last season, Garrett totaled seven sacks. By the looks of him this offseason, he should easily beat that number this year:
good lord Myles pic.twitter.com/ykhxcsn0AT — Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) August 24, 2018
In fact, I think he could set the single-season record for the Browns, currently owned by Reggie Camp, who had 14 all the way back in 1984.
As long as he stays healthy, I don’t think that could be considered a bold prediction for Garrett. But this is the part that’s a little more out there: I think he, once again, misses his chance to sack Ben Roethlisberger.
Garrett has talked about how much he wants to sack Roethlisberger since draft night. The first time the Steelers and Browns played last year, Garrett was out with an injury. The second time, it was Week 17 and Roethlisberger sat out to rest for the playoffs.
That goal has still been on Garrett’s mind this office ... oops, I mean offseason:
Not maliciously so, though. Garrett has made it clear that he respects Roethlisberger’s abilities.
That’s not to say Garrett isn’t capable of getting to Big Ben, either. The Steelers’ offensive line is already having nightmares about Garrett, who they will face in Week 1:
#Steelers LT Al Villanueva w/ my fave line of the day: “I’m not worried about Le’Veon. I have enough to worry about w/ the #Browns’ no. 95. Have you seen the Browns’ no. 95?!”
Yes, I have seen Myles Garrett. And yes, I expect most every LT who sees him will worry about him. — Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) September 3, 2018
Maybe it’s the curse of playing for the Browns, but this feels like it could be Garrett’s white whale. Fate, circumstances, our machine overlords, Garrett getting blocked by his own teammate, something will prevent him from knocking down the guy who looks like Will Ferrell crossed with a grown-up Charlie Brown.
Garrett is such an easy player to root for that I hope I’m wrong. Either way, I expect Garrett to have a monster season, which might be the most “well, no duh” prediction anyone could make. — Sarah Hardy
[Author’s note: this article was originally published on June 5, 2018.]
President Trump rescinded an invitation to the White House for the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles on Monday, claiming it was because they “disrespected” the flag by “staying in the locker room for the playing of our National Anthem.”
As my Vox colleague Jane Coaston noted, no Eagles players stayed in the locker room or kneeled during the anthem throughout the season, but that’s not really the point.
This is just latest episode in a story that began in the summer of 2016, when then-San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick decided to protest police brutality and racial injustice by taking a knee during the national anthem before games.
Kaepernick’s protest, initially overlooked, ballooned into a massive national story. Soon, other players followed his lead and it became a weekly drama for the NFL. Conservative media pounced on the story, ignoring Kaepernick’s stated intentions and instead accusing him of being unpatriotic and disrespectful of the American flag.
The controversy exploded when Trump weighed in at a rally for Alabama Senate candidate Luther Strange. Before a crowd of (mostly white) Southerners, Trump fantasized about firing the protesting players. “Wouldn’t you love to see one of these NFL owners ... say, ‘Get that son of a bitch off the field right now. He’s fired!’”
The NFL protests were always about race in America; Trump’s remarks turned them into a full-blown culture war. Since then, I’ve wondered if there’s something unique about football and the NFL that makes it a hotbed for this kind of racial tension. There’s nothing new about race and politics overlapping with sports, but football seems to be the source of the most controversy today.
I reached out to Ben Carrington, a professor of sociology and journalism at the University of Southern California and the author of Race, Sport and Politics. I asked him why NFL owners (virtually all of whom are white) are so scared of Kaepernick, and why he considers sports the “most racially tinged spectacle in modern society.”
A lightly edited transcript of our conversation follows.
Sean Illing
Were you surprised that the Seattle Seahawks, arguably the most progressive team in the NFL, recently canceled its workout with Colin Kaepernick after he refused to say he’d stand for the anthem?
Ben Carrington
Nope, and it’ll be interesting to see if Seattle can hold on to its reputation as the most “woke” NFL team. My understanding is that the team asked Kaepernick to confirm that he wouldn’t kneel anymore. So they weren’t asking if he was actually planning to protest; they wanted a guarantee that he wouldn’t.
This is extraordinary if you think about it. The team is saying, “We’re going to restrict your rights to speech and your rights to protest, and we need you to confirm ahead of time that you’re not going to speak out on any issues as you have before.”
And this gets to the crux of the matter: It’s about power. Kaepernick has shown agency and power in speaking about political issues, which is far rarer in the NFL than it is, say, in the NBA. So this was about an organization trying to reassert its power over the player.
Sean Illing
Race and sports and politics have always overlapped, but, as you just alluded to, there seems to be something unique about football and the NFL that produces this sort of racial tension.
Ben Carrington
Well, there’s a lot going on here. NBA players have always had more power than NFL players, and there are reasons for that that we probably don’t want to go into here. But it’s worth noting that black NFL players have less collective power than black players in other sports, so that’s obviously a factor here.
But I think football also embodies certain ideals of American masculinity in a way other sports don’t. It’s a violent sport, a physical sport. And it’s replete with all these military metaphors: It’s played on a “gridiron” and there are “blitzes” and “bombs thrown into the end zone” while teams “march” down the field to conquer one another.
So it signifies, in a weird but real way, a certain notion of American militarism, American patriotism, American strength and violence, in a way that a skill game like basketball doesn’t.
“People like to talk about sports as a post-racial space in American society, but it’s probably the most racially tinged spectacle in modern society”
Sean Illing
There’s also the fact that the NBA is accepted as “black sport” in a way that the NFL isn’t. Both sports are dominated by black athletes, but the cultural significance of the NFL for white Americans is just different.
Ben Carrington
Absolutely, and it’s such a crucial point. Roughly 75 percent of the players in the NBA are black, and there are very few prominent white American males in the NBA. The NFL has a majority of black players, but it’s not the same as the NBA. And the quarterback position, which Kaepernick plays, has sort of become the last great position of the “Great White Hope.”
Going all the way back to the early 20th century with the famous black heavyweight champion boxer, there’s always been this element of the American sports world that has longed for a white person to reclaim the mantle of masculinity from black athletes.
Quarterbacks are today’s last Great White Hope. It’s a position that the average white American male can identify with to show some type of sporting supremacy in a landscape where, as that atrocious 1997 Sports Illustrated cover story said, “Whatever happened to the white athlete?”
Sean Illing
And no doubt this is something that NFL team owners are acutely aware of.
Ben Carrington
Unquestionably, and the owners still wield almost all of the power in the NFL. To circle back to your point, the real threat that Kaepernick posed isn’t that he’ll bring more attention to police brutality or racial injustice; it’s that he’ll mobilize players and encourage them to assert their rights in a way that’s similar to the NBA. That’s what really scares the NFL.
Sean Illing
I’ve often wondered how different the reaction would have been a few years ago if it were predominantly white players taking a knee to protest something President Barack Obama was doing.
Ben Carrington
But we kind of know, right? Sean Hannity would be praising them with long monologues about how brave the players are for speaking out. He’d make comparisons to Jackie Robinson, saying this is exactly what America is about. People like him would reverse the narrative and claim that soldiers die on the battlefield so that Americans can exercise their First Amendment rights.
What’s interesting to me is you have people like Laura Ingraham on Fox News telling LeBron James to “shut up and dribble,” and yet Fox News is littered with B-list actors and country singers who are posing as political experts and I don’t hear anyone telling them to “shut up and sing.”
Sean Illing
The Fox News audience is attuned to this deeper message, and so I doubt that the hypocrisy is a problem. These are the same people who hear Trump dismiss black NFL players as “sons of bitches” and know exactly what he means.
Ben Carrington
A big part of the history of US sports is this idea that sports in America are preserved for white men. That this is how sports were founded; this is how they were understood. Anyone who has gained entry into sports who aren’t white men, and that includes women, that includes people of color, had to do so with a kind of deference. And they had to be grateful that they were allowed onto our parks, onto our pitches, onto our courts, because these are our spaces.
And so when Trump says, “Wouldn’t you love to fire those sons of bitches?” he’s imagining a kind of re-segregation. He’s telling people to imagine that they’re one of these owners, that they could fire these “sons of bitches.” You don’t need to understand a ton of American history to recognize the racial politics of this moment.
People like to talk about sports as a post-racial space in American society, but it’s probably the most racially tinged spectacle in modern society.
“People like Laura Ingraham [are] on Fox News telling LeBron James to ‘shut up and dribble,’ and yet Fox News is littered with B-list actors and country singers who are posing as political experts and I don’t hear anyone telling them to ‘shut up and sing’”
Sean Illing
Something that I’ve noticed as a white guy who watches a lot of sports is the language commentators and analysts use to talk about white and black athletes. Race is always there, always looming. People call white quarterbacks “heady” or “hard-working” or “coach on the field,” and black quarterbacks are “mobile” or “athletic” or “explosive.” We’ve got all these stereotypes that are constantly reinforced with this coded language.
Ben Carrington
Yeah, and it’s powerful precisely because we deny that it’s there. We have this strange paradox in which we deny the existence of something which we know is there, and then we enjoy it partly because it’s there.
There’s a great bit by the comedian Bill Burr from a few years ago where he talks about how frustrating it is as a white guy watching how good black athletes are, and the inability of white guys to stay in the NBA. He’s like, “I just want the white guys to get out the way when the black guys are dunking on them.”
I think he taps into something real. He talks about watching the Olympics and just hoping the one token white sprinter can at least come in third. It’s hilarious, obviously, and Bill’s a great comic, but it’s a quite honest reflection of white emasculation on the one hand and loving sports on the other.
And this is part of the reason I think sports concerns and confirms the notion of racial difference more than any other cultural medium.
Sean Illing
I assume that’s a big reason why you think we should take sports more seriously as a cultural object and as a space where politics happens.
Ben Carrington
Yeah, that’s right. I think we have to expand what we mean by politics, because we tend to define it too narrowly. Politics is about Democrats and Republicans and Congress and all that, but it’s also about how we live our lives. It’s about identity.
In that sense, sports and popular culture is inherently political. I remember when Trump made his “sons of bitches” comment, I kept hearing cable news pundits say, “Why can’t we get back to speaking about politics? Why are we talking about the NFL?” I thought they were completely misunderstanding what politics is.
Trump was elected to shore up a lot of anxieties that white people have about the state and direction of the country, and that’s why the issues around Kaepernick and sports are so important. It’s part of who we are as Americans.
The games we play aren’t simply games. They’re also about identity, which is why they’re so popular. And if they didn’t tap into identity, they wouldn’t be so popular.
