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Colombia v England preview: James Rodriguez a doubt as Gareth Southgate eyes rare knockout win


Harry Kane is expected to return to England's starting XI against Colombia

England and Colombia clash in the World Cup last 16 on Tuesday with Gareth Southgate urging his side to make their own history with a rare knockout stage win.

England made a positive impression in the early stages of the tournament and are now looking to reach the quarter-finals for the first time since 2006.

"It is 10 years since we have won a knockout fixture," said the England head coach at his pre-match press conference on Monday.

"For this team, this is a brilliant opportunity to go beyond where more experienced teams have before them. The lads have got the chance to write their own stories."

The tournament is considered wide open following the elimination of Germany, Spain and Argentina, but Southgate refuses to get carried away with his team's chances.

"We have been in this position before many times over the last however many years," he added. "It is pointless to think about what might happen after tomorrow's game here.

0:57 Former Aston Villa and Colombia forward Juan Pablo Angel says there is a 'different atmosphere' in English football under Gareth Southgate Former Aston Villa and Colombia forward Juan Pablo Angel says there is a 'different atmosphere' in English football under Gareth Southgate

"We will focus on the game and our performance and everything will fall into place from there.

"Maybe the teams who aren't here weren't as strong this time. If teams are beating Spain and Germany they have also got to be respected. We haven't even discussed anything beyond [Tuesday]."

For Colombia, doubts still persist over whether star man James Rodriguez will be fit to start for the South Americans in Moscow.

James, 26, went off injured during Colombia's 1-0 win over Senegal on Thursday that saw Jose Pekerman's side seal top spot in Group H.

Jose Pekerman (right) is confident James will be fit to face England

The playmaker missed training on Friday and Saturday, and a scan subsequently showed he has a swelling in his right calf, though the Colombian football federation says the muscle is not torn.

The Colombia boss is confident James will be fit to start at the Otkritie Arena: "We had good news after his medical tests. After his MRI (scan) we knew that he doesn't have a serious injury.

"We still have one-and-a-half days to see how he feels, and as always we hope that he will be able to play in the following games."

0:46 Colombia have the quality to derail England's World Cup hopes, says Dennis Wise Colombia have the quality to derail England's World Cup hopes, says Dennis Wise

If the Golden Boot winner at the 2014 World Cup misses the game, though, Pekerman suggested Sevilla forward Luis Muriel could replace him in the starting XI.

"Muriel is an option," he said. "He was great during the match against Senegal.

"He was able to change the pace, he's technically gifted and really fast. He works well with the team."

Team news

England are expected to revert to the side that started against Tunisia. That means midfielder Dele Alli has recovered from the thigh injury he picked up in that opening Group G win.

England midfielder Dele Alli has recovered from a thigh problem

Meanwhile, Colombia are set to make a late decision on James' fitness. However, fellow midfielder Abel Aguilar is likely to feature having recovered from the muscle problem that saw him sit out that final Group H win.

Opta stats

0:31 Forward Raheem Sterling says he has not booked any post-tournament holidays because he is too wrapped up in England's World Cup campaign Forward Raheem Sterling says he has not booked any post-tournament holidays because he is too wrapped up in England's World Cup campaign

England are unbeaten against Colombia, having faced them five times previously (W3 D2). Their last encounter dates back to May 2005 in New Jersey. England won 3-2 thanks to a Michael Owen hat-trick

England beat Colombia in their only previous World Cup encounter thanks to goals from Darren Anderton and David Beckham (2-0), it was in the group stages of the 1998 tournament. Current England boss Gareth Southgate was an unused sub that night

Colombia have reached the knockout stages of the World Cup for the third time but it's the first time they have accomplished it in consecutive tournaments (1990, 2014, 2018). The only previous occasion they've gone past the round of 16 was in 2014

Three of Colombia's five goals at this year's World Cup have come from set-pieces (two from corners, one from direct free kick) whilst England scored more goals from dead-ball situations than any other team in the group stages (6)

Colombia have scored in each of their last eight World Cup games, the longest current run of any team as of the end of the 2018 group stages. The last time Colombia failed to find the net in the tournament was in June 1998 against England (0-2)

None of Colombia's 21 games at the World Cup has ended goalless. In fact, only the USA (33) and Austria (29) have played more games in the competition without ever registering a 0-0

England have won only two of their last eight knockout games at the World Cup (v Denmark in 2002, v Ecuador in 2006). They had progressed in six of their eight previous games in the knockout phase

1:30 Danny Welbeck says set pieces have been key for England Danny Welbeck says set pieces have been key for England

Predictions

Merse: I watched Colombia the other day and there's nothing to be scared of there for England. They are dangerous at set plays but we are as good as anybody at set plays. In truth, they've been poor and they also had James Rodriguez limp out of the Senegal game which is a concern for them.

I was sat there watching the Belgium game and hoping England didn't score. If we don't get to the last four I'd be shocked. At the start of the tournament we were saying that if we'd get past the quarter-finals it'd be great but if we don't get to a semi-final now it won't have been a very good tournament.

PAUL PREDICTS: 0-2

1:33 Gary Neville believes England should be optimistic about their World Cup chances and is bemused by the criticism levelled at Gareth Southgate for resting key players against Belgium Gary Neville believes England should be optimistic about their World Cup chances and is bemused by the criticism levelled at Gareth Southgate for resting key players against Belgium

Charlie: So England have dropped into the half of the draw which has an easier route to the final. Well, there is no easy route to the final because there are tough teams waiting at every turn. You ask the Germans now whether they'd like to be in the hard side of the draw and they'd all be nodding their heads.

England will have a very difficult game against Colombia in my opinion. The only thing that gives England a very slight edge is the injury scare to James Rodriguez. If he's out it's a massive blow for Colombia, however, don't be fooled into thinking the South Americans are not a threat. They are a very dangerous side and a very physical one at that.

It's a very tight game to call. I'm going for 1-1 in 90 minutes but England will benefit from resting a few last Thursday and I think the tide will turn in their favour in extra-time. I see one of England's substitutes coming on and making all the difference in the extra 30 minutes.

CHARLIE PREDICTS: 1-1 - England to win in extra time


Is it actually coming home? On Tuesday we will find out as England look to win their first knockout game at a major tournament since 2006 when they beat Ecuador 1-0 thanks to a David Beckham free-kick.

This time it’s Colombia, Ecuador’s South American neighbours, who stand in their way of a quarter-final place, who have doubts over their star player James Rodriguez despite managing to top their group.

England’s unlikely route to the final opens up after Colombia, who represent arguably their toughest test in this side of the draw, but with so many big scalps already taken, anything is possible in Moscow.

Follow all the live action below…

Live Updates

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What time is it?

The game kicks off at 7pm BST in Moscow.

Where can I watch it?

The game will be shown live on ITV and the ITV Hub, with coverage starting from 6.15pm BST.

Odds:

Colombia: 3/1

England: 23/20

Draw after 90 minutes: 2/1

Prediction:

Colombia 1-1 England (England win on penalties). It’s pretty unlikely, because England don’t win shootouts, but Germany don’t go out at the group stage so who knows?

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FABRICE COFFRINI/Getty Images

In what promises to be one of the most entertaining 2018 FIFA World Cup round-of-16 fixtures, Colombia take on England on Tuesday.

Both sides showed in the group stage they have so much to offer in attack, as they each played some incisive football. The challenge for both sides now will be to replicate those standards amid the pressure of knockout football.

For the winners of this match a meeting with either Switzerland or Sweden awaits in the quarter-finals. And while neither of those outfits should be dismissed, there's no doubt a favourable path to the semi-finals is on the cards.

The final game before the last eight gets under way should be a cracker. Here is the latest team news, the broadcast information and a preview of the contest.

Team News

The big concern for Colombia manager Jose Pekerman heading into the game is the fitness of James Rodriguez, who hobbled out of the previous match against Senegal.

Gareth Southgate has Dele Alli fit again, and while Ruben Loftus-Cheek has performed well in the last two games, the extra experience and potency of the Tottenham Hotspur man should see him get the nod.

Likely Colombia XI: David Ospina; Santiago Arias, Yerry Mina, Davinson Sanchez, Johan Mojica; Carlos Sanchez, Mateus Uribe; Juan Cuadrado, Juan Quintero, James Rodriguez; Radamel Falcao

Likely Englad XI: Jordan Pickford; Kieran Trippier, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Harry Maguire, Ashley Young; Jordan Henderson, Jesse Lingard, Dele Alli; Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane

Date: Tuesday, July 3

Time: 7 p.m. (BST), 2 p.m. (ET)

TV Info: ITV (UK), Fox Sports (U.S.)

Live Stream: ITV Hub (UK), Fox Sports Go (U.S.)

Preview

Jean Catuffe/Getty Images

Colombian hearts sank when Rodriguez trudged out of the game against Senegal, especially because at that point the team's progression to the knockout stages was not sealed.

However, some unlikely heroes in the form of Quintero and Mina, who has scored two goals from centre-back at this tournament, continued their excellent World Cup to help Los Cafeteros get by.

Quintero has had a massive role for Colombia, and if Rodriguez is absent or not fully fit, a huge amount of creative responsibility will fall on his shoulders again.

As we can see, he is helping fill the void that has been left by Rodriguez's fitness issues:

Even without their star No. 10, there are plenty of attacking stars for England to worry about in the shape of Quintero, Falcao and Cuadrado. But the Three Lions have many weapons of their own too.

After strong starts to the World Cup, the likes of Kane, Lingard and Sterling were all rested for the third group game against Belgium, meaning they should be raring to go against the South Americans.

PATRICK HERTZOG/Getty Images

While there was much debate about whether the Three Lions should have rotated for the 1-0 loss to the Red Devils, broadcaster Jacqui Oatley outlined how this may work to England's benefit:

In Kane, they have the hottest striker in the tournament as things stand. As noted by journalist Tom Williams, the Spurs star has adapted to life on this stage quickly:

Occasionally these types of matches can be cagey, although England and Colombia have shown in recent years they are teams who are at their best when on the front foot.

That should make for an enterprising game at the Spartak Stadium in Moscow, with plenty of segments of end-to-end play.

In the end, the fact England's talisman is well-rested and in form and Colombia's star man is struggling with fitness woes will give the Three Lions the edge in an entertaining game.

Prediction: Colombia 1-3 England


GIUSEPPE CACACE/Getty Images

England will be looking to make a return to the World Cup quarter-finals for the first time since 2006 when they take on Colombia on Tuesday in the final matchup of the round of 16 at Spartak Stadium in Moscow.

The Three Lions will be well prepared after resting a number of starters in a 1-0 loss to Belgium to close out the group stage, while an invigorated Colombia squad aims for a third straight clean-sheet win after claiming top spot in Group H with last Thursday's 1-0 victory over Senegal as -140 favorites.

World Cup betting line: England opened as a +100 favorite (wager $100 to win $100); the total is at two goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

World Cup betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 2.1-0.8, Colombia (2018 World Cup picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark FC podcast on iTunes or at OddsSharkFC.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top World Cup betting news.

Colombia vs. England World Cup matchup analysis

England hopes to avoid a letdown after sitting several starters in their loss to Belgium as +135 favorites, including Harry Kane, whose five goals in two group stage appearances make him the tournament's leading goalscorer, and a favorite on the Golden Boot odds.

The Three Lions were likely fine with taking that loss, which arguably leaves them with an easier path through the knockout stage. However, it also brought a halt to a 12-match unbeaten streak during which they surrendered just five total goals. While England has not reached the quarter-finals in 12 years, they enjoy a solid record in the round of 16, going 4-2 in six appearances.

Colombia returns to the knockout stage looking to build on their impressive run to the quarter-finals at Brazil 2014. The Cafeteros have shown steady improvement since opening the tournament with a sloppy 2-1 loss to Japan as -120 chalk, posting decisive wins over Poland and Senegal, but have failed to record three straight victories since marching to a third-place finish at the Copa America Centenario.

The South Americans are also winless in three previous meetings with England, including a 2-0 loss in the group stage of the 1998 World Cup, but own a 5-2-0 win-draw-loss record in their past seven meetings with European opponents across all competitions.

All 2018 World Cup odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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