Mexico vs Sweden betting tips: World Cup match preview & predictions
Mexico vs Sweden prediction: Mexico 2-2 Sweden
Expect goals in this one. The onus will be on Sweden to push for the win, although Mexico are unlikely to sit back and defend.
Despite winning both of their matches, Mexico are yet to secure a place in the last 16.
Mexico vs Sweden World Cup free bet offers:
Mexico vs Sweden: Who will win?
The bookies are having trouble separating these two sides, with Mexico slight favourites at 23/10.
Sweden are a fairly attractive looking 11/5 to claim victory. The draw is rated at 23/10.
Mexico vs Sweden match preview
Group F draws to a close on Wednesday with Mexico and Sweden facing off at the Central Stadium in Yekaterinburg.
Fellow Group F members Germany and South Korea will play each other at the same time.
Mexico begin the day as leaders of the group, following their second consecutive win. The Tricolor beat South Korea 2-1 thanks to goals from Carlos Vela and Javier Hernandez.
Sweden were cruelly denied a point against champions Germany on Saturday. Ola Toivonen gave Sweden the lead before Marco Reus levelled things up. The match looked to be heading for a draw but Toni Kroos scored in a 96th-minute winner.
Sweden’s 1-0 win over South Korea in their opening match keeps their knockout hopes alive.
The winner and runners-up of Group F will face the runners-up and winners of Group E respectively.
Sweden have faced Mexico nine times in international football, winning four and losing two. The two sides have only met once at a World Cup finals, where Sweden won 3-0 back in 1958.
Group F Permutations
Sweden have an identical record to Germany heading into the final match. Both sides have won one and lost won, scoring two and conceding two.
Of all the sides to have won both of their opening two matches, Mexico are the only ones who aren’t guaranteed a spot in the last sixteen. Failing to make the knockout stages would be cruel on Mexico, but it would take something special for that to happen.
A point for Mexico would be enough to confirm them as winners of the group. Mexico could be eliminated, however, if they lose and Germany beat South Korea and have their goal difference of two overturned in the process.
Sweden need to better Germany’s result against South Korea to secure a spot in the last 16.
Adding to the excitement, is the fact South Korea can still make it through but they need a win, a Mexico victory and a goal difference swing.
Mexico team news vs Sweden
Juan Carlos Osorio will be tempted to field the same eleven that started against South Korea.
Edson Alvarez and Carlos Salcedo are therefore expected to keep their places at right-back and centre-back respectively.
Sweden team news vs Mexico
Janne Andersson has no injury concerns coming into the match and is not expected to make any changes to his side.
Goalscorer Ola Toivanen should keep his place up front, alongside Marcus Berg.
Mexico predicted line-up vs Sweden
Sweden predicted line-up vs Mexico
All odds mentioned in this article are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
The latest videos from Mexico pre Sweden
We landed in Ekaterinburg! We are at the now. Time for some and rest! There’s an important challenge ahead. #NadaNosDetiene | #WorldCup pic.twitter.com/wrdCrfVecz — Mexican National Team (@miseleccionmxEN) June 25, 2018
Latest videos from Sweden pre Mexico match
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Mexico vs Sweden | World Cup 2018, Group F | Wednesday, June 27 | Ekateringburg Arena
Neither Mexico and Sweden are guaranteed a place in the knockout stages but sit in healthy positions.
A point will be enough for Mexico after winning their opening two games, while Sweden must better Germany's result over South Korea after losing in heartbreaking fashion last time out.
Scroll down for Standard Sport's comprehensive preview...
Group F P W D L F A Pts Mexico 2 2 0 0 3 1 6 Germany 2 1 0 1 2 2 3 Sweden 2 1 0 1 2 2 3 South Korea 2 0 0 2 1 3 0
Start time
Mexico and Sweden face off at Ekateringburg Arena with kick-off scheduled for 3pm BST.
TV, online and live stream coverage
The match will be televised live on BBC Two. Viewers can stream the match online via the BBC iPlayer.
You will be able to follow the match with Standard Sport's dedicated LIVE blog
Prediction
Betting tips via Betfair | UK users only | Odds subject to change
Mexico to win 2-1: 9/1
Javier Hernandez to score: 15/8
Marcus Berg to score: 11/4
Click here to find the latest match odds and place a bet.
Head to head
The two nations have faced each other nine times, but the most recent meet came nine years go as Sweden won a friendly 1-0.
Just once have they met at a World Cup and it was the first meeting, Sweden winning 3-0 in 1958.
Team news
Mexico coach Juan Carlos Osorio said his team would stick to its attacking style and play for a win against Sweden on Wednesday, even though a draw would be good enough to see them into the last 16 at the World Cup.
Mexico lead Group F with six points, three more than Sweden and Germany, and in theory they could afford to sit back and force the Swedes to make the running.
But Osorio, relishing the improvement in the team's performances that has helped to silence his many critics at home, said Mexico would stay true to the brand of play that led them to a stunning 1-0 win over Germany and a 2-1 victory over South Korea.
Full World Cup fixture schedule
Mexico is assured of advancing out of Group F in the 2018 World Cup with a win or draw Wednesday against Sweden. Sweden needs a victory in order to move on following its last-minute loss to Germany. Kickoff is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET at Central Stadium. Sportsbooks have Mexico as the favorite at +130 to win outright (bet $100 to win $130) in the latest 2018 World Cup odds, while Sweden is listed at +220 (bet $100 to win $220). The draw is offered at +230, and the over-under for total goals scored in this World Cup match is two.
Before you enter your 2018 World Cup picks, you need to see what European football expert David Sumpter has to say. Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote "Soccermatics," a book that explains how math works inside the sport. Together with other experienced analysts, Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.
The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In nearly three seasons since its inception, the Soccerbot is up an incredible 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds.
The Soccerbot has already nailed draws for Argentina-Iceland (+385) and Brazil-Switzerland (+360). It also correctly predicted Iran upsetting Morocco at +275, just to name a few of its big calls. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, Soccerbot has digested the film, crunched the numbers and broken down every single player on the rosters for Mexico and Sweden. The model has released a very strong money-line pick, which it's sharing over at SportsLine.
The model is aware that Mexico has emerged as a surging and dangerous contender, which it announced with a 1-0 opening win against reigning champion Germany. The club followed it up with a mostly dominant performance in a 2-1 win against South Korea.
The model has also taken Sweden's sense of urgency into account. Defeating Mexico provides its best chance of moving on. Sweden could advance amid other criteria, but a win Wednesday would help remove doubt.
Sweden won its opener against South Korea, 1-0, and took a 1-0 lead into the intermission against Germany. But the defending champs rallied and Toni Kroos salvaged their hopes of advancing with a spectacular winning goal in the first minute of stoppage time.
Mexico and Sweden have faced each other on nine occasions but only once at a World Cup, with Sweden winning 3-0 in 1958.
So which hungry nation wins Wednesday? Or does it end in a draw? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong Mexico-Sweden money-line pick, all from a European soccer expert whose powerful model is up 1,800 percent in three years.
VASILY MAXIMOV/Getty Images
Mexico can finish atop a World Cup group stage table for the first time since 2002 by earning a single point Wednesday when it takes on Sweden in a Group F matchup at Ekaterinburg Arena.
El Tri opened up its World Cup schedule with a pair of victories, including a shocking 1-0 upset of Germany as +600 underdogs. Conversely, Sweden will be desperate for points as it seeks to avoid elimination following its heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Germany on Saturday as a +550 bet.
World Cup betting line: Mexico opened as a +118 favorite (wager $100 to win $118); the total is at 2.5 goals, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
World Cup betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 1.8-1.4, Mexico (2018 World Cup picks on every game)
Check out the OddsShark FC podcast on iTunes or at OddsSharkFC.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top World Cup betting news.
Mexico vs. Sweden World Cup matchup analysis
Mexico has emerged as one of the surprise stories of this edition of the World Cup and has seen its World Cup championship odds soar after clinching a berth in the knockout stage with last Saturday's 2-1 win over South Korea as -150 chalk.
However, El Tri cannot afford to rest on its laurels in Wednesday's clash with Sweden. A first-place finish in Group F could enable the Mexicans to avoid a Round of 16 clash with Group E favorites Brazil, clearing the path for a deep run in the knockout stage.
Sweden returns to action likely in need of three points in Wednesday's contest after letting a draw with Germany slip away in the dying moments of Saturday's match. While Sweden sits level with the defending champions on the Group F table, it comes up short on tiebreakers.
In addition, Sweden has struggled with inconsistency in the months since its stunning ouster of Italy in UEFA World Cup qualifying, amassing a 2-4-3 win-draw-loss record in its past nine across all competitions. But the Swedes have enjoyed previous success against Mexico, keeping clean sheets in three of four previous dates with El Tri, including a 1-0 victory when these two sides last met in a 2009 friendly.
All 2018 World Cup odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.
