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If any trainer can break a 135-year old curse at the Kentucky Derby, it's Bob Baffert. Baffert's latest Kentucky Derby favorite, Justify, is the horse with the most conversation swirling around him heading into Saturday's Kentucky Derby as he tries to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the "Run for the Roses" despite not racing at age 2.
There's also a horse named Audible being backed the audiobook company with the same name, as well as a horse owned by an NBA team's owner who will be watching the Derby between playoff games on Friday and Sunday. Justify is one of two horses in Saturday's 1.25-mile race who didn't race at age 2, with Magnum Moon being the other. Six horses have won from the No. 7 post in the history of the Derby, most recently Street Sense in 2007.
"We didn't want the 1-hole, that's for sure," Baffert, the four-time Derby winner, told the Associated Press. "I was relieved when I saw him in seven."
The field of 20 horses received their post positions on Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs, with Blended Citizen making the field as an "also eligible" addition if one of the other 20 horses in the field can't run Saturday. Mendelssohn, trained by Aidan O'Brien, also drew a good post at No. 14, and neither horse will likely see their odds drop significantly with those posts, which are more towards the center. The first 10 saw a few of the favorites get drawn, but Justify was the main one to get picked.
Fan-favorite Audible, which has gotten backing by the audiobook company of the same name, took the fifth post, which historically has been extremely friendly to horses. One of Todd Fletcher's four horses in this race, Audible has had decent odds. This can only improve those odds moving forward. Lone Sailor, the horse of late Saints' owner Tom Benson drew the No. 8 post. Current Saints' owner Gayle Benson will reportedly be in attendance to watch Lone Sailor between Pelicans playoff games.
Kentucky Derby post draw, updated odds
Odds via Bovada
Post Horse Odds 1 Firenze Fire 66-1 2 Free Drop Billy 35-1 3 Promises Fulfilled 50-1 4 Flameaway 45-1 5 Audible 13-2 6 Good Magic 8-1 7 Justify 7-2 8 Lone Sailor 50-1 9 Hofburg 15-1 10 My Boy Jack 18-1 11 Bolt d'Oro 17-2 12 Enticed 25-1 13 Bravazo 60-1 14 Mendelssohn 7-2 15 Instilled Regard 60-1 16 Magnum Moon 15-2 17 Solomini 22-1 18 Vino Rosso 12-1 19 Noble Indy 30-1 20 Combatant 66-1
Favorite would break curse older than a century
Justify, of course, currently has the best odds at 7-2 out of Post 7. The horse is looking to break the Apollo Curse. No horse has won without racing at 2 years old since Apollo in 1882. Justify and Magnum Moon are the only two in this field that could end the 135-year-old curse.
"I don't buy into the Apollo Curse or whatever at all, mainly because Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have got the horses," four-time Derby-winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas said, via the Associated Press. "Todd's going to have his (horse) ready, and Baffert is going to have his."
Best and worst post positions
Post positions may not matter for the long haul, but they can make all the difference in the scrum at the beginning of the race. According to America's Best Racing's Christina Moore, No. 17 is the dreaded post position. No horse has ever won the Derby out of that gate, and only three have finished in the money. Solomini is a longshot at 22-1 to do so. Beyond that, Posts 18-20 have yielded just one winner, and nine in the money finishes between them. Vino Rosso out of No. 19 is the one most likely to buck that trend at 12-1 odds.
Post No. 5 is the magic number, with 10 champions starting out of that gate. At 13-1 odds, Audible has decent potential to build on that legacy. 21 horses have finished in the money from No. 5, surpassed only by Posts 2 (seven winners, 25 ITM finishes), run by Free Drop Billy at 35-1 odds; and 10 (nine winners, 24 ITM), owned by My Boy Jack -- also at 30-1 odds.
Which post is the best depends on which jockey it is, with some preferring to stay outside due to less bustle and others preferring the middle. Ultimately, however, no amount of luck in the draw will top the horses with more stamina. Justify running out of Post 7 is a good draw for the favorite, and certainly wouldn't do anything to hurt his odds moving forward.
The 2018 Kentucky Derby field is set.
On Saturday, 20 horses will step into the gates at Churchill Downs. One will win the “Run for the Roses” and take the first step toward Triple Crown immortality.
It’s an incredibly talented field this year, with reasons to both love and doubt every horse entering the day with good odds.
Currently, five horses stand out with odds in the single digits, including two that are undefeated and others that have dominated in their recent run of races.
Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know about the favorites before placing your bets on this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Justify
source Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Post position: No. 7
Current odds: 3-1
Why he can win: Justify, undefeated in his three career races, is a deserving favorite coming into the Kentucky Derby. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, who has helped four horses en route to Derby wins, most recently with the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
Also, if you’re looking at trends to follow, the favorite horse has won the past five Kentucky Derbys – that’s a pretty good run for a 20-horse race.
Reasons to be wary: Justify would have to break the “Curse of Apollo” to win. Justify has never raced as a two-year-old, and no horse has won the “Run for the Roses” without doing so since Apollo in 1882. And because Justify has only three races under his belt, running in a packed field of 20 might be a bit new to him.
Mendelssohn
source Tom Dulat/Getty Images
Post position: No. 14
Current odds: 5-1
Why he can win: Mendelssohn is a powerful horse – look no further than his win in March at the UAE Derby, where he beat the field by more than 17 lengths. He has run and won all over the world, and if he has a good race, he could pull away from the pack.
Reasons to be wary: While his win at the UAE Derby is one of the most compelling reasons to put your money on Mendelssohn, history tells a different story – winners of the UAE Derby have never finished higher than sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Whether it’s the travel or some trouble with their internal clock, many horses have shown signs of dominance on the other side of the world only to disappoint at Churchill Downs.
The more I look at this race, the more it feels like Mendelssohn will either win it running away or not be a factor in the finish at all.
Magnum Moon
source Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Post position: No. 16
Current odds: 6-1
Why he can win: Magnum Moon, also undefeated in his young career, has shown an ability to win while running different races, taking first both from the pack and leading wire-to-wire; in his most recent start, in the Arkansas Derby, he won by four lengths.
For some experts, he’s the strongest horse in the field, having never won a race by less than two lengths. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, knows how to coach a winner, having helped Always Dreaming to a first-place finish at the Derby last year.
Reasons to be wary: Magnum Moon has never faced a field like this. While that’s true for every horse racing on Saturday, it merits specific mention when touting a horse as undefeated.
Additionally, according to ESPN’s Chris Fallica, horses entering the race with the third-best odds haven’t won the Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991.
Audible
source Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Post position: No. 5
Current odds: 8-1
Why he can win: Audible has won four straight races coming into this one, and he’s racing out of the No. 5 post, which has produced a remarkable five Derby winners in the past 21 years.
Like Magnum Moon, Audible is trained by Pletcher, who has experience winning at Churchill Downs. An exacta box with the two Pletcher favorites feels like a fun bet to have in your pocket come Saturday.
Reasons to be wary: From BlackJack Fletcher at The Action Network: “My concern for Audible is his running style. He’s a closer. He likes to sit off the pace near the back and then make his charge. That is going to be very difficult for him to do in a 20-horse field on Derby Day. If he gets blocked in, hung out too wide or just gets a rough trip, he may have too much work to do before the wire.”
Bolt d’Oro
source Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Post position: No. 11
Current odds: 8-1
Why he can win: Bolt d’Oro gave chase to Justify at the Santa Anita Derby earlier this year before just falling off the pace.
His jockey, Victor Espinoza, has won two of the past four Kentucky Derbys – and after coming so close to handing Justify his first loss, he could know just the right way to push his horse to maneuver to yet another victory.
Reasons to be wary: Bolt d’Oro already lost to Justify in a solidly run race. He’s a strong horse, but Justify just might be stronger.
More Kentucky Derby coverage:
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
On Saturday, May 5, the 144th annual Kentucky Derby will be taking place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
Scheduled for 6:34 p.m., the actual "Run for the Roses" isn't set to start until 6:46 p.m.
Considering the race lasts just two minutes and with the $2 million in purse money on the line, 6:34 p.m. is probably the better time to tune in—you know, just to be safe.
At "the most exciting two minutes in sports" you can expect the wagering and fancy suits to be out in full force, with celebrities all over the course.
With 21 horses set for action, let's take some time to get to know these horses and their jockeys, trainers and poll positions.
Kentucky Derby Posts and Notes
1. Firenze Fire
Jockey: Paco Lopez; Trainer: Jason Servis
Notes: Firenze Fire has finished fourth in two races: the Wood Memorial and Gotham Stakes. He debuted in June 2017.
2. Free Drop Billy
Jockey: Robby Albarado; Trainer: Dale Romans
Notes: The Albaugh Family Stable purchased Free Drop Billy at a 2016 Keeneland September sale for $200,000. He also finished second the Firenze Fire at the 2017 Sanford Stakes.
3. Promises Fulfilled
Jockey: Corey Lanerie; Trainer: Dale Romans
Notes: Heading into the derby, Promises Fulfilled has been ridden by three different jockey's over the last three races. He posted a 104 BRIS in the Fountain of Youth.
4. Flameaway
Jockey: Jose Lezcano; Trainer: Mark Casse
Notes: Flameaway finished second in both the Blue Grass Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby. Flameaway has won on synthetic, dirt (both wet and dry) and grass.
5. Audible
Jockey: Javier Castellano; Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Notes: Audible won the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Audible was trained by Todd Pletcher who trained 2017 Kentucky Derby winning horse Always Dreaming.
6. Good Magic
Jockey: Jose Ortiz; Trainer: Chad Brown
Notes: Good Magic won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Good Magic is also the son of Curlin, who is a two-time Horse of the Year.
7. Justify
Jockey: Mike Smith; Trainer: Bob Baffert
Notes: Although the Kentucky Derby will be just his third career race, Justify has already put together an impressive resume, winning the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1).
8. Lone Sailor
Jockey: James Graham; Trainer: Tom Amoss
Notes: Lone Sailor was purchased by GMB Racing as a yearling for $120,000. Lone Sailor won his maiden at Saratoga after finishing fifth in his debut out of seven other horses.
9. Hofburg
Jockey: Joze Ortiz; Trianer: Bill Mott
Notes: Like Justify, Hofburg has only three career starts. Hofburg finished second in the $1 million Florida Derby—his first encounter with Grade 1 participants.
10. My Boy Jack
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux; Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Notes: At just three-years-old, My Boy Jack already has 10 races under his belt. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, and his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, are brothers.
11. Bolt d'Oro
Jockey: Victor Espinoza; Trainer: Mick Ruiz
Notes: Following a steward's inquiry, the horse McKinzie was disqualified and finished second at the San Felipe Stakes (G2). Thus, this resulted in Bold d'Oro winning the 1 1/16-mile race. This victory earned him 50 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby.
12. Enticed
Jockey: Junior Alvarado; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Notes: Has a strong classic pedigree. Enticed is the son of Medaglia d'Oro who has won Travers Stakes (G1), Whitney Handicap (G1) and Donn Handicap (G1).
13. Bravazo
Jockey: Luis Contreras; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Notes: In eight starts, Bravazo has posted a 3-1-1 record. However, his most disappointing finish came at the $1 million Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby where he finished eighth.
14. Mendelssohn
Jockey: Ryan Moore; Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Note: Mendelssohn has quite the impressive resume, too, winning the UAE Derby in Dubai and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. According to his profile on the Kentucky Derby's website, Mendelssohn is bred for dirt.
15. Instilled Regard
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke; Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Notes: Purchased for $1.05 million by OXO Equine LLC, Instilled Regard comes with a rich pedigree. The horse earned nearly $250,000 in earnings after finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and Risen Star at Fair Grounds.
16. Magnum Moon
Jockey: Luis Saez; Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Note: Winner of the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Magnum Moon is also trained by last year's Kentucky Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Robert and Lawana Low purchased Magnum Moon from the Keeneland September Yearling sale for $380,000.
17. Solomini
Jockey: Flavien Prat; Trainer: Bob Baffert
Notes: Solomini has finished third in the Arkansas Derby, second in the Rebel Stakes and second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. All of these tracks are on dirt and Grade 1 with Rebel Stakes being the exception.
18. Vino Rosso
Jockey: John Velazquez; Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Notes: One of the four horses trained by Pletcher in this year's Derby, Vino Rosso won $750,000 on April 7 at Aqueduct. Rosso has also finished third and fourth at the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, respectively.
19. Noble Indy
Jockey: Forent Geroux; Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Notes: The last of the four Pletcher horses, Noble Indy has three wins in four starts, accounting for $640,000 in earnings. Noble Indy notably finished first at the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby Stakes at Fair Grounds.
20. Combatant
Jockey: Ricardo Santana; Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Notes: Breaking his maiden in his second start at Churchill Downs, Combatant followed that up with three straight runner-up finishes at Southwest Stakes, Smarty Jones Stakes and Remington Springboard Mile Stakes.
Current Odds
1. Firenze Fire (+6600; bet $100 to win $6,600)
2. Free Drop Billy (+3300)
3. Promises Fulfilled (+4000)
4. Flameaway (+4000)
5. Audible (+550)
6. Good Magic (+900)
7. Justify (+350)
8. Lone Sailor (+5000)
9. Hofburg (+1600)
10. My Boy Jack (+2200)
11. Bolt d'Oro (+900)
12. Enticed (+2500)
13. Bravazo (+5000)
14. Mendelssohn (+400)
15. Instilled Regard (+5000)
16. Magnum Moon (+700)
17. Solomini (+2000)
18. Vino Rosso (+1400)
19. Noble Indy (+2800)
20. Combatant (+6600)
As we head into the derby, there are three horses that catch my eye: Instilled Regard, My Boy Jack and, of course, Justify.
Instilled Regard, though he's at a 50-1 odds, has done well in 2018, placing first and fourth twice in three races. Purchased for over $1 million, OXO Equine LLC clearly sees something in this horse that has the capability to take home the gold this Saturday. Looking at his history, Instilled Regard has never run a bad race.
That is perhaps due to his trainer, Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer.
It should also be noted that Instilled Regard lost by just 11 lengths to Justify—the current favorite to win it.
At 50-1, Instilled Regard is the most appealing long shot.
Speaking of Justify, you cannot say enough good things about this horse. He's lightly raced, which is always a good thing, but couple that with his debut being a victory at 1 1/8-mile dirt track at the Santa Anita Derby and you got yourself a prime candidate.
Justify will also have four-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert on his side.
My Boy Jack is somewhere in the middle of the pact at 30-1, but he comes well equipped.
Trainer Desormeaux will be making his third straight trip to the Kentucky Derby Saturday.
Unlike Justify, My Boy Jack is the most experienced horse in the lineup, having raced 10 times.
According to the Lexington Herald-Leader, Desmoreaux had this to say about My Boy Jack: "Jack runs the race. And he’s not going to be intimidated."
Statistics obtained from KentuckyDerby.com. All odds courtesy of OddsShark and the Kentucky Derby.
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
The first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown takes place Saturday, and there's buzz surrounding the Kentucky Derby that a horse could follow in the footsteps of American Pharoah.
Three years after the Triple Crown drought was broken, Justify is aiming to capture our attention with an incredible run at Churchill Downs.
Justify is one of several horses tipped to have the best chance of winning the Derby, and he is the odds-on favorite.
With the race won by favorites in each of the last five years, most of the talk leading up to Saturday's race will revolve around the marquee names in the field, but don't be surprised if under-the-radar horses work their way into the conversation.
Post Positions and Odds (via OddsShark)
1. Firenze Fire (+6600)
2. Free Drop Billy (+3300)
3. Promises Fulfilled (+4000)
4. Flameaway (+4000)
5. Audible (+550)
6. Good Magic (+900)
7. Justify (+350)
8. Lone Sailor (+5000)
9. Hofburg (+1600)
10. My Boy Jack (+2200)
11. Bolt d'Oro (+900)
12. Enticed (+2500)
13. Bravazo (+5000)
14. Mendelssohn (+400)
15. Instilled Regard (+5000)
16. Magnum Moon (+700)
17. Solomini (+2000)
18. Vino Rosso (+1400)
19. Noble Indy (+2800)
20. Combatant (+6600)
Can Justify Live Up To The Hype?
Justify's name is the one coming out of the mouth of almost every observer at Churchill Downs this week.
The favorite to win the 144th Kentucky Derby is one of the most heralded horses in recent memory, and there's talk of him blowing away the field.
Justify is one of four undefeated three-year-olds entered in the race, and he could become the seventh straight horse to win the Kentucky Derby with an unblemished record, per ESPN.com's Chris Fallica:
That means Justify has to break the Curse of Apollo as the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing as a two-year-old since Apollo in 1882.
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
Justify, who is trained by Bob Baffert, contains all the credentials of a derby-winning horse, a message he sent by winning the Santa Anita Derby in April over Bolt d'Oro as a 4-5 favorite.
There's plenty of experience guiding Justify into Saturday, as jockey Mike Smith is a previous derby winner and trainer Bob Baffert has four victories at Churchill Downs.
Baffert also knows what it's like to bring a horse to the Kentucky Derby with a massive amount of hype, as he trained Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015.
It remains to be seen how Justify deals with the surroundings of the first Triple Crown race of the season, but all signs are pointing to him thriving Saturday.
Can Any Underdogs Make A Charge In The Race?
With most of the talk surrounding the favored horses, it feels like Saturday's race has the perfect formula for an underdog to surprise us all.
If you consider horses like Good Magic, Hofburg and Vino Rosso, who all have decent odds, as underdogs, then there's a decent chance any of those horses could make a run at first place.
Vino Rosso might have the best opportunity of the three, as he is one of four entries trained by Todd Pletcher, who could use the horse starting from post No. 18 as a pacemaker.
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
If that is the case and Vino Rosso is feeling good Saturday, he could be in the mix near the finish line, as could Noble Indy.
Good Magic has a favorable starting position from post No. 6, and he might be motivated to go out fast with favorites Audible and Justify starting alongside him.
Hofburg is coming off a second-place finish in the Florida Derby, which was won by Audible. If he replicates the same performance, he could turn into one of the top surprises.
If you're looking to take a risky bet on the ultimate underdog, Firenze Fire and Combatant have the longest odds in the field.
Although it seems unlikely either contend for the win, we have seen horses come out of nowhere to win the Kentucky Derby, including Giacomo in 2005.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from KentuckyDerby.com.
