Live Salah, Mané or Firmino? Emre Can reveals all
Salah is the best finisher, but who is the quickest and who has the best dress sense? Emre Can has all the answers about Liverpool's fearsome front three.
A harrowing home defeat by Tottenham on Sunday left Chelsea eight points adrift of the Champions League qualification places with seven matches to play. Although the meagre consolation of the Europa League awaits, next season would be the second in three spent outside Europe’s premier club competition. So what could be the ramifications?
Finances will take a hit
Failure to qualify for the Champions League will affect income, even with the sums generated through Premier League media rights. The club’s most recent financial figures, covering a 2016-17 campaign spent out of Europe altogether, serve as a gauge. They show revenues rose by £32m, yet that was less than half the increase recorded by Manchester United (£82m), Arsenal (£72m) and Manchester City (£66m), who were competing in the Champions League. Match-day incomes fell 6% to £66m and, although the Europa League awaits, those games will not attract the same glitz, glamour or gates. A club who made £193m between 2012 and 2017 from playing in Europe will inevitably suffer another downturn.
Pochettino used to bow to Chelsea but now Tottenham dictate the terms | Jonathan Wilson Read more
More pertinently perhaps, so will the club’s reputation
In October Chelsea’s commercial director, Chris Townsend, targeted doubling revenues to more than £650m over the next seven to 10 years “to be a top-four or -five club in Europe [by revenues], rather than ranked eighth”. The aim was to increase the number of sponsors from 12 to between 30 and 35 premium brands, plans considered highly ambitious in a market where clubs such as Manchester United, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid boast a significant head start. It would, according to Townsend, “allow Chelsea to invest more in players”. Yet will prospective sponsors find Chelsea as attractive without the Champions League? At a time when Roman Abramovich is hoping to push through a £1bn redevelopment of Stamford Bridge, a scheme likely to require significant outside investment, the suspicion that Chelsea have regressed into a club who flit in and out of Europe’s elite competition would be damaging.
Will the pursuit of a new head coach be affected?
The chances of Antonio Conte remaining next season were remote even if the team achieved a top‑four finish, given his relationship with the hierarchy has long since fractured beyond repair. The Italian was plucked from his national association by a club apparently on their knees but the worry remains that the recruitment of an elite successor may be hampered without Champions League football. Certainly any faint hopes of luring Mauricio Pochettino across the capital would have to be abandoned. Luis Enrique might not be overly concerned at life outside the European elite in the short term but his contract at the Camp Nou in his previous position is understood to have been worth far more than Conte’s £9.5m a season. Thomas Tuchel is apparently not under consideration, though other young coaches may come into the hierarchy’s thinking. A club who go through two-season managerial cycles may have to sell a long-term project to prospective candidates.
Spurs end their Stamford Bridge curse as Man City close in on the title - Football Weekly Read more
There will be an impact on retaining key players and the current staff
Chelsea retained their best players after the trauma of 2015-16 but, two years down the line, concerns centre on their Belgians. Thibaut Courtois enters the last 12 months of his contract in July and, although talks are scheduled to resume in the summer, a goalkeeper consistently linked with a return to Spain may not be quite as keen to re-sign if the immediate future comes without the perk of Champions League football. Eden Hazard’s deal does not expire until 2020, with Chelsea apparently willing to offer him the most lucrative terms in their history, but he seems intent on waiting to see if Real Madrid’s long-standing interest crystallises into a firm offer.
Squad strengthening may be harder
Chelsea thrived in the summer of 2016, prising N’Golo Kanté from Leicester, with David Luiz and Marcos Alonso also added, so they have strengthened without the Champions League factor in the recent past. Theirs is a relatively young setup and hardly in need of a radical overhaul, which is just as well because recruitment would be a challenge. They have spent relatively heavily in recent windows, for all Conte’s complaints, albeit with money recouped for players such as Diego Costa and Nemanja Matic. The problem has arguably been the reluctance to secure stellar arrivals – Conte was after established pedigree – and the size of the revamp instigated in each window, with so many ins and outs. The senior squad hardly feels significantly deeper than it did two years ago. This will be a shorter summer window, crammed largely into the post‑World Cup period, which will bring its own complications to be confronted at present without a technical director. Marina Granovskaia has held informal talks with prospective candidates to replace Michael Emenalo but the club do not appear certain quite what the role will entail. Whether that lack of clarity proves a hindrance remains to be seen.
Each season from 2003/04 until 2013/14 Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal all qualified for the UEFA Champions League. The other Premier League spot rotated between Newcastle United, Liverpool (6), Tottenham Hotspur, and Manchester City (3).
Manchester United was the first of three to fall by the way failing to qualify in 2014/15 and again in 2016/17. Chelsea also sat out the 16/17 season and Arsenal finally succumbed this season.
Any realistic chance that Arsenal will return to Europe’s premier club competition next season rests with winning the Europa League and gaining an automatic spot along with four other representatives from the Premier League.
Famously, Chelsea won the Premier League for the second time in three seasons when it missed qualifying for either the Champions or Europa Leagues in 16/17.
However, after a 3-1 home loss to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday Chelsea seems far more likely to finish in the Europa League next season rather than the Champions League.
Spurs have opened up an eight-point gap to Chelsea in the race for Champions League qualification https://t.co/0yRdJ6IfxS pic.twitter.com/ePdPfLeMFl — Telegraph Football (@TeleFootball) April 1, 2018
Manager Antonio Conte seems certain to leave the team after two seasons in charge. Conte has been openly critical of Chelsea’s transfer dealings and the team’s form has plummeted since the New Year.
Chelsea has collected just 11 points in 10 Premier League games since the end of 2017, two less than Arsenal. Of the top six teams, Tottenham has picked up the most (27), followed by Manchester City and Liverpool both with 25 points and Manchester United with one less.
In 19 games in all competitions in 2018, Chelsea has won just five times.
Antonio Conte "can't wait to leave Chelsea," according to friend and former Blues boss Gianluca Vialli. https://t.co/TPdvkNsxgC pic.twitter.com/GwOhJBuOpQ — ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) April 1, 2018
Some Chelsea fans already calling for Ancelotti to return. Personally, I think that would be a disaster with the current squad. — Matt Law (@Matt_Law_DT) April 1, 2018
So, how will missing out on another season of the Champions League impact on Chelsea’s future finances?
The best place to start is with 2016/17, the last season Chelsea missed out. Financially, and on the field, the results were both positive.
Chelsea took advantage of a European respite and won the Premier League, finishing with 93 points, seven more than runners-up Tottenham Hotspur. That was 43 points and nine places better than the season before.
The financial statements showed a profit of £15m – only the second profitable year recorded since Roman Abramovich bought the team in 2003.
There were two specific items worth noting in the 2016/17 statements. The first was exceptional charges of £75m. Around 10% of the total went to terminating Jose Mourinho and his staff. The rest was a payment made to Adidas in order to end a kit deal six years early.
A case of live by the sword, die by the sword as Adidas was brought on in 2005 after Chelsea made a contract termination payment to Umbro.
The other item of note was the profit on player sales. Primarily driven by selling Brazil midfielder Oscar to Shanghai SIPG for £60m, Chelsea generated a profit on player sales of £69m.
This brought Chelsea’s cumulative gain on the sale of players since 2013/14 to £225m. During these four years, player sales became a very important “contingency” helping to mitigate losses or turning a loss into profit for Chelsea.
Without the contribution from player sales Chelsea would have a booked a loss of £54m but by the same token if the exceptional items were excluded Chelsea’s underlying profit in 16/17 was £21m.
In projecting the financial statements for 2017/18 exceptional items should not be a factor and the profit on player sales should reach or perhaps exceed the £69m banked in the previous year.
This year Chelsea will benefit from Champions League money (estimate £70m) and from the new Nike deal – banking around £30m more than the Adidas deal.
Amortization of player contracts will likely jump by around £30m after the team spent of £230m over the two transfer windows. Premier League prize money will drop by around £12m.
Add it all up and 2017/18 should bring record revenue for Chelsea and record profit of between £70 and £80m.
Excluding player sales, Chelsea’s underlying profit will be closer to £10m or breakeven.
But what of next year and no Champions League while making do with the relatively meagre pay outs generated by participation in the Europa League?
There is a caveat. The further out you project the more assumptions have to be made and the level of accuracy is diminished.
The Premier League prize money scale is extremely equitable with an average difference of just £3m for each finishing position. An estimate of the reduction in money from the Champions League to the Europa League is around £50m.
After projecting other items Chelsea could be looking at a loss of £30m and needing to sell more players in order to turn the red ink to black.
As UEFA Financial Fair Play is monitored over a three-year rolling window Chelsea will benefit from its financial results in 2017 and likely 2018 and stay on the good side of UEFA in the short-term anyway.
However, should Chelsea miss out on the Champions League two seasons in a row then it will be time to raise red flags rather than blue ones.
Manchester City beat Liverpool 5-0 in September, before the Reds won 4-3 at Anfield in January
There are two English teams left in the Champions League and they meet each other in the quarter-finals.
Liverpool take on Manchester City in the first leg on Wednesday, 4 April before the second leg at Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, 10 April.
But who would you pick in a combined XI of the two teams?
Ederson or Loris Karius? Vincent Kompany or Virgil van Dijk? Fernandinho or Jordan Henderson? Leroy Sane or Sadio Mane? Gabriel Jesus or Roberto Firmino?
Make your selection below and share it on social media.
